Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve will not alter the ongoing global "debasement trade," as increasing public debt necessitates the monetization of U.S. fiscal deficits [1] Fiscal Reality - Despite a significant drop in precious metals prices, the fundamental drivers for their rally remain intact, with the market's search for safe havens being influenced by an unsustainable fiscal trajectory [2] - The nomination of Warsh does not change the underlying fiscal issues, which are characterized as a "reckless path" of fiscal policy [2] Public Debt and Market Signals - Rising public debt is leading to increased long-term yields, which will intensify political pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates and cap these yields [3] - Following Warsh's nomination, Treasury yields decreased, and futures prices indicated expectations for additional rate cuts, suggesting a market belief that Warsh will adopt a dovish stance on interest rates, benefiting hard assets [3] Political Influence on Fed Policy - The political dynamics of the incoming administration are expected to have a greater impact on Fed policy than individual ideologies, with potential risks for Warsh if he does not align with political expectations [4] Temporary Correction in Precious Metals - The recent volatility in silver and gold is viewed as a minor correction rather than a reversal of trends, as the price drop merely returns metals to levels seen weeks prior [4] - The "debasement trade," which reflects market behavior seeking safe havens from debt monetization, is expected to continue regardless of who leads the Fed [5] Benchmark Indices Performance - The top U.S. indices experienced mixed results, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.23% over the past week, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones indices fell by 0.29% and 0.50%, respectively [5]

The Kelsey prediction markets agree by the way with Hasset now back ahead of former Fed Governor Kevin Worsh who took the lead I think just this week. Hasset leading the odds today with a 53% chance of getting the nod. Worsh down to 34.While the market debates which Kevin could win the horse race, we wanted to ask what would be the real difference between them as far as the market can discern. Let's bring in Dan Clifton. He's head of policy research at Strategus.Dan, the task goes to you. I'm sure everyone ...

Canada’s budget watchdog is walking back his most charged criticisms of Mark Carney's fiscal policy, but says the government's decision to drop its debt-to-GDP guideline is a major shift that warrants more public debate https://t.co/7xjRhVoT0z ...

If Javier Milei’s first year as president was defined by a fiscal chainsaw and his second by managing the peso and elections, then his third will be about getting laws through Congress https://t.co/Cv67JRHN8x ...

JPMorgan Chase expects the dollar to soften next year on easier US monetary and fiscal policy, but cautioned that accelerated bets on future interest-rates hikes could challenge that view https://t.co/75VdNoopfk ...

China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an pledged to implement a stronger and proactive fiscal policy over the next five years in an effort to support the country’s economic growth, state media Xinhua News Agency reported on Friday https://t.co/maX1HsH7ev ...

Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - The market feels like 1999, suggesting a potential for significant price appreciation, similar to the NASDAQ doubling between October 1999 and March 2000 [3][4] - Investors should position themselves as if it's October 1999, but be prepared to exit the market quickly [4][5] - The greatest price appreciation typically occurs in the 12 months leading up to the market peak [5][6] - A "blowoff" is anticipated, potentially more explosive than 1999 due to current monetary and fiscal policies [6][7] - Current fiscal and monetary conditions, featuring a budget deficit of 6%, are reminiscent of the post-war period of the early 1950s [8][9] - The market is conducive to massive price appreciation in various assets, but requires increased retail buying and recruitment from hedge funds and real money [10][11][12] Investment Recommendations - Investors should consider positions in gold, crypto, and the NASDAQ [14][15] - The biggest winners in the market are signaling an inflation story, with gold up approximately 46-47%, Bitcoin up approximately 50-60%, and a Morgan Stanley retail flow basket (meme stocks) up approximately 67-68% [13] Risk Assessment - The circularity of certain deals, such as the Open AI deal with AMD, raises concerns [13] - Leverage, including margin debt and leveraged ETFs, is currently elevated compared to October 1999 levels [11]

Hawkish on security policy, dovish on fiscal policy and traditionalist on social policy, she will move her country to the right https://t.co/DZiXBTR8xN ...

Focusing on the natural rate of interest is important not just to get monetary policy right, but also to confront the fiscal pit we're digging, says @Clive_Crook (via @opinion) https://t.co/FNDt4pd9RZ ...

A Principal Asset Management fund is keeping a close eye on the rupiah after selling most of its Indonesian sovereign bonds, as political instability stirred concern over fiscal policy https://t.co/ZVLLU5JHvz ...