Core Insights - Institutional investors are increasingly viewing bitcoin through the lens of portfolio construction rather than focusing on short-term price fluctuations, with a projected base-case price of $1.4 million by 2035 [1][7] Group 1: Institutional Participation - The shift in perspective reflects growing institutional participation as regulated markets become more accessible, with deeper liquidity in both spot and derivatives markets, and improved regulatory clarity [3] - CF Benchmarks emphasizes that a portfolio-based approach to bitcoin is being adopted, applying multiple valuation frameworks to assess its long-term role in diversified portfolios [4] Group 2: Valuation Frameworks - The firm utilizes comparative valuation against other stores of value, production economics linking market price to mining costs, and analysis of bitcoin's sensitivity to global liquidity conditions [4] - These approaches suggest that bitcoin's value is supported by its expanding share of the global store-of-value market, its fixed supply schedule, and its responsiveness to monetary conditions [5] Group 3: Long-term Price Scenarios - CF Benchmarks has derived a range of long-term valuation outcomes for bitcoin through 2035 based on different adoption paths [6] - In a conservative scenario, bitcoin could reach approximately $637,000 by 2035, capturing 16% to 33% of gold's market capitalization [6] - The base case scenario, assuming broader institutional adoption, suggests a price of around $1.42 million by 2035, with bitcoin reaching roughly one-third of gold's market capitalization [7] - In an optimistic scenario, bitcoin could become the dominant global store of value, surpassing gold's market capitalization, with a projected valuation of nearly $2.95 million by 2035 [8]