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Link: Focus on fundamentals, not the noise
CNBC Televisionยท 2025-07-25 11:44
Market & Economic Outlook - The market should focus on fundamentals, with earnings season revealing positive trends in the economy, consumer behavior, and manufacturing [2] - Earnings are exceeding expectations, running at approximately 10% compared to previous estimates of 5%, leading to upward revisions [4][5] - Opportunities arise when good fundamentals and rising estimates are met with stock price declines due to high expectations [6] Freepoint Macaran Analysis - Freepoint Macaran's stock is up 17% year-to-date but flat over the past year [7] - The company surpassed earnings expectations in both copper and gold, benefiting from reduced costs and a 10% increase in copper guidance for the second half of the year, which is expected to improve margins [8] - The global supply and demand dynamics for copper are favorable, with inventories at record lows [8][9] - Freepoint Macaran is highly leveraged to copper prices, with every 10 cents per pound change in copper impacting EBITDA by $200 million [9] - Despite copper being up double digits (over 16%) and gold trading near all-time highs, Freepoint Macaran's stock is down about 2% since July 8th [10] - 74% of Freepoint Macaran's revenues are tied to copper [11] - The stock is trading at 65% times EBIDA versus its historical average of eight times [10]