President Trump is set to meet today with both House and Senate Democrat and Republican leaders in the hopes of avoiding a government shutdown. Joining us right now is New York Republican Congressman Mike Lawler. And Congressman, first of all, thank you for being with us this morning.Um I I'll ask you, >> what what do you think the odds are that we reach some sort of a settlement. We are u at this point just a day about 40 hours out from when you would actually see the government shut down. And to this poin ...

Quantum Computing - Quantum computing is considered a call option on the future of technology and computing, with increasing commercialization and advancements in material science, drug discovery, aerospace, and defense [2][3] - The US, China, and Europe are in a race in quantum computing, with increased capital expenditure (capex) in the space, exemplified by the collaboration between IBM and AMD [3] Market and Investment Strategy - Investors should monitor the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut path for potential market impact; any changes in timing or quantity of cuts could pull the market back [5] - Mega-cap tech stocks are already widely held in investor portfolios, and new themes like AI power and infrastructure, and modern warfare offer new investment opportunities [11][12][14][15] Earnings and Technology Trends - S&P earnings were up 10% year-over-year, and NASDAQ earnings were up over 30% year-over-year, with mega-caps leading the growth, driven by capex in areas like AI [8] - Nvidia is central to the AI trade, and its performance is expected to impact hyperscalers, cybersecurity, AI chips, data centers, and cloud computing; expectations include over 50% revenue growth and close to 50% EPS growth [8] Modern Warfare - Modern warfare, including drones and satellites, presents investment opportunities, supported by government spending, with the last aerospace and defense contract being approximately $850 billion [14][15]

International Relations & Diplomacy - Russia is downplaying the prospect of a face-to-face meeting between Vladimir Putin and Wimir Zalinski, suggesting thorough preparation is needed for any high-stakes bilateral talks [1][11] - The White House is considering arranging a trilateral meeting between Putin, Zalinsky, and Trump, potentially in Budapest [4] - Discussions are underway regarding security guarantees for Ukraine after the war, with the US potentially providing air support but not ground troops [5][6][13][14] - French President Emanuel Macron is pushing for Geneva as a meeting location, offering immunity for Putin due to the International Criminal Court arrest warrant [5] Military & Security - The British Ministry of Defense estimates it would take Russia four more years of fighting and cost nearly 2 million additional casualties to capture the remaining territories it illegally annexed in 2022 [6] - Russian strikes in Ukraine's northeastern region and Odessa injured at least 30 people and damaged port infrastructure [7] - Approximately 1,200 National Guard troops are being deployed to Washington DC from largely southern states [20] US Domestic Policy & Budget - A federal website tracking government spending is back online after a court order, following its removal by the Trump administration in March [24][25] - The White House and Congress are engaged in a budget fight, with potential for a government shutdown in September [26][28]

Government Spending & Taxation - Government spending is viewed as taxation [1] - Lowering employment and evolving a different mindset inside the government are happening [1] Economic Growth & Deficit - Getting growth going is the key to lowering the deficit [2]

Government Spending & Economy - Elon Musk suggests America is on a path to bankruptcy and government spending needs to be cut [1]

Government Spending & Taxation - Government spending tends to increase to match available tax revenue and even exceed it [1] - Government size is currently excessive [1] Economic Perspective - Milton Friedman's view on government spending and taxation is highlighted [1]

Government Finance - The federal budget deficit is $3 trillion [1] - Federal expenditures amount to $7 trillion [1] - Federal revenue totals $4 trillion [1]

Economic Concerns & Political Landscape - New York City's high cost of living and doing business puts it at a competitive disadvantage, with a 20% salary premium needed to maintain a lifestyle compared to other locations [5] - The rise of Democratic Socialists, exemplified by Mamdani, reflects a dissatisfaction with traditional political organizations and a focus on issues like housing affordability, where median rents exceed $4,000 per month [9][10] - The loss of federal deductibility of state and local taxes (SALT) in 2018 significantly increased the tax burden on New York City taxpayers [7][8] Policy Implications & Risks - Proposed policies like increased taxes on the wealthy and corporations, along with free services, could incentivize businesses and wealthy individuals to leave New York City [2][15][20] - While New York City's economy is currently strong, with a $1 trillion economy and 48 million jobs, federal program cuts pose a future risk [3][4] - Hyper-taxing the wealthy presents a significant risk for New York City, especially given the mobility of high-income earners [21] City Management & Historical Context - Cities with a large number of poor people tend to lean towards progressive policies, but excessive progressivism can drive firms and residents away [13][15] - A mayor's actions can significantly impact a city's economic fortunes, especially when the city is on the edge [22] - Historical examples, like the "sewer socialism" of Milwaukee mayor Daniel Webster Horne, demonstrate that pragmatic, service-oriented approaches to socialism can be successful [16][17][18]