And let's bring in our first panel now, which is Barry Knap, the director of research at IronIides Macro, and Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors Managing Partner. Welcome to you both. Tom, you're more I don't want to make it sound like you have a point of view other than you're expecting a more hawkish Fed and Barry, you're expecting one that's a little bit more doubbish.So Tom, you're more in line with consensus right now. What would that look like. And why are you still bullish on stock prices.>> Uh, well ...

Market Outlook & Strategy - Barclays maintains a contrarian view, anticipating the Fed will not cut rates in September [1] - A hawkish tone from Jackson Hole could negatively impact small caps (especially value segment), home builders, parts of retail, and financials [2][3] - Caution is advised in small caps, requiring selectivity at the index level [4] - Financials are viewed positively due to strong earnings, good revisions, and potential benefits from increased corporate and capital markets activity [4] - Big tech is considered a safer space with high earnings quality and growth, especially if valuations pull back; previously trading around 29 times forward earnings, now approximately 28 times [5][6] - Broadening of market gains beyond big tech is uncertain, as results outside of financials and big tech are mixed [7][8] Earnings Analysis - Aggregate Q2 earnings look strong with over 10% growth and sales growth close to 6%, indicating positive operating leverage [9] - However, positive results are concentrated in financials and big tech; most other sectors are struggling with negative operating leverage [9] - The full impact of tariffs is yet to be seen, potentially affecting future earnings [9]