Join us now with his reaction to the Fed's decision and chairman Pal's comments. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset. You're okay, right.You you were enjoying things. You're you're getting your thoughts together uh and everything. Hopefully the guy with the lawnmower is uh is not coming out today.Kevin, >> that was funny last week. >> Unbelievable. Um 25 basis points.Um it's a start. How what what how do you view that. You know, my old friend Alan Greenspan used to say that monetary policy steer ...

Darius Dale (@DariusDale42) says the Fed inflation target of 2% is wrong.It should be 3% instead.He brings plenty of data to back it up too. https://t.co/X6Jlluk4aZ ...

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market anticipates a potential rate cut in September, influenced by Chairman Powell's recent statements [1] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is increasingly concerned about rising unemployment rates, potentially triggered by changes in immigration policies and other factors [2] - The Fed's emphasis on employment over inflation, despite inflation being at 3% (above the 2% target), raises questions about its policy bias [6] - There's debate on whether current policies are "modestly restrictive," with arguments suggesting real rates are closer to neutral at 150 basis points (15%) [7] Economic Trends & Labor Market - The economy is experiencing a slowdown in both supply and demand, creating a "curious" situation [3] - Global demographic shifts, including declining fertility rates, are impacting the labor market [4] - Monthly job growth of 40,000 to 50,000 may not be a negative outcome, considering the evolving dynamics of the labor market [4] - Recent labor reports and revisions were not favorable, contributing to the Fed's openness to a September rate cut [5] Fed Independence & Political Pressure - There are concerns about the Fed's independence due to significant and direct political pressure, reminiscent of the Johnson and Nixon eras [12][13] - The Fed is under pressure from the administration, potentially affecting the reappointment of board members [12] - Chairman Powell is navigating differing views within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and attempting to build consensus [9][10] - The Fed's decisions are heavily data-dependent, closely monitoring upcoming inflation and employment reports before their September meeting [11]

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market is uncertain about Fed Chair Powell's upcoming statements on future rate cuts at Jackson Hole [1] - The Fed is expected to maintain maximum policy optionality, potentially conflicting with the White House's desires [2] - The advisor suggests the Fed should have already cut rates, advocating for a cut in September [11] - A 25 basis point cut is recommended, but a 50 basis point cut is possible if a poor labor report precedes the September meeting [11] - Maintaining optionality risks being late, potentially leading to a larger policy error [12][13] Inflation & Economic Outlook - The advisor notes "sticky inflation" at 25%-3% and suggests that as long as inflationary expectations are anchored, the economy can tolerate this level [13] - The advisor argues that the current 2% inflation target may be inappropriate given structural changes in the economy [13][14] - The advisor believes the Fed is excessively data-dependent, reacting to past data rather than anticipating future trends [3][4] Labor Market - The unemployment rate of 42% is the only reassuring indicator in the labor market [8] - Other labor market indicators, along with company reports and college graduate outcomes, suggest a softening labor market [9] - The labor market's decline is not linear, with potential for sudden downturns following initial slowdowns [10][11]

The ECB mustn’t be too concerned about a temporary undershooting of the 2% inflation target and shouldn’t rush further interest-rate moves, Governing Council member Boris Vujcic told Handelsblatt https://t.co/xfryOwgkQm ...

Inflation Target Risk - The ECB faces the risk of undershooting its inflation target if the euro's strength continues [1] Monetary Policy Implication - Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau highlights the potential impact of a strong euro on the ECB's ability to meet its inflation goals [1]

The European Central Bank is at greater risk of undershooting its inflation target following a sharp appreciation of the exchange rate, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said https://t.co/ip7f1XjVAU ...

Inflation Target - The ECB (European Central Bank) is correct in prioritizing a symmetric 2% inflation target [1]