🔥 LATEST: Grayscale says $BTC may be breaking away from its historic four-year halving cycle, arguing that institutional flows, macro conditions, and shifting supply dynamics now play a bigger role in shaping BTC’s price behavior. https://t.co/UQUXIQNCsX ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin's recent decline to approximately $80,000, about 35% lower than its early-October peak, illustrates the rapid impact of macroeconomic pressures and a fragile market structure on cryptocurrency valuations, resulting in nearly $1 trillion in value loss before a rebound to around $87,000 [1] Market Dynamics - The drop in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of risk-off sentiment, prolonged high interest rate expectations, diminishing regulatory momentum, weakening institutional flows, and profit-taking by long-term holders, which have tested Bitcoin's role in portfolios and revived its "Tinkerbell effect" [2] - As U.S. equities faced declines due to fiscal concerns, renewed U.S.–China tensions, and inflated AI valuations, Bitcoin began to behave more like a high-beta tech stock rather than a hedge, with correlations to major indexes reaching stress-era levels [3] Regulatory and Institutional Factors - Regulatory progress has stalled, particularly with delays to the CLARITY Act, which has diminished optimism regarding clearer market structures and deeper liquidity [4] - Institutional flows have sharply reversed, leading to thinner order books that exacerbate sell-offs, while outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) contribute to a negative liquidity cycle [4] Long-term Outlook - Despite the current challenges, Bitcoin's long-term maturation is considered intact; however, ongoing uncertainty, leverage, and policy ambiguity are likely to amplify drawdowns, even as potential regulatory clarity and broader institutional adoption could support future market phases [5]

Investment Strategy - MN Fund采用混合策略，包括持有基础资产[1] - 7月初，MN Fund将核心持仓的45%配置到以太坊($ETH)，并增持蓝筹以太坊生态代币[1] Market Drivers - 以太坊ETF规则明确，机构资金大量流入，网络持续升级，推动以太坊价格上涨[1]