Market Outlook & Economic Indicators - JP Morgan Asset Management believes the futures market is now better priced, with rate cut expectations reduced to 100 basis points over the next year, targeting a neutral rate of about 3% [2] - The firm anticipates a potentially weak GDP report in the fourth quarter, suggesting the economy is "okay" rather than "red-hot" [3] - Consumer spending showed a slowdown in October, particularly in discretionary areas, prompting interest in consumer companies' earnings reports [4][5] - Equity markets are expected to focus on secular AI trends and upcoming earnings season, projected to be strong with double-digit growth for the fourth consecutive quarter, while looking through government shutdown noise [7] Consumer Behavior & Retail Sector - Chase card data indicates that spending on restaurants and bars turned negative in September [10] - Consumer spending is shifting, with core goods spending fizzling out and services spending trading places between airlines/travel and restaurants [11] - Retailers' margins will be closely watched in the third and fourth quarters to assess their ability to pass on tariff costs or cut expenses [12] Labor Market & Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed is expected to normalize rates rather than accommodate policy, aligning with recent statements and minutes [1] - The Fed is likely to look beyond federal government job losses and focus on the cooling private sector hiring, which has slowed to a standstill and is concentrated in only a few industries [8][9]