Paul, thanks so much for your time today. We've got a lot to unpack here, but I want to start with this idea of the cease fire. President Trump hailing a cease fire saying the 12 day war, as he's calling it, is over.But obviously Iran's foreign minister countering that. When can we have confidence that a cease fire has been achieved. What what would you want to hear.Well, we can have confidence when we get official announcements from both the government of Iran and the government of Israel. Foreign Minister ...

Joining us now is Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, senior fellow and former Arab-Israeli negotiator. Also has a book on America's elusive search for ArabIsraeli peace. It's good to have you.What do you think the US does. Do you think it ultimately enters in in some military form. Look, I think the president confronts a dilemma as do the Israelis and the Iranians.Uh he does not want to enter this war. It's got too many uncertain consequences, but at the same time, he can't end ...

Mr. . You've always said that you don't believe Iran should be able to have a nuclear weapon, but how close do you personally think that they were to getting one. Because Tulsi Gab Tulsey Gabry testified in March that that the intelligence community said Iran wasn't building a nuclear weapon.I don't care what she said. I think they were very close to having remember Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. It's very simple.You know, not to go too deep into it. They just can't have a nuclear one. ...

Geopolitical Conflict & Impact - US embassy in Tel Aviv sustained minor damage due to nearby missile strikes, embassy in Jerusalem closed [1] - Iran launched missile attacks on Israel, resulting in at least five fatalities [2] - Israel claims to have achieved aerial superiority over Iran's capital, striking 10 command centers in Thran [2] Diplomatic & Political Stance - President Trump expressed hope for a deal between Israel and Iran, suggesting both negotiation and potential for continued conflict [3] - President Trump rejected Israel's proposal to assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader [4] - US official suggests Iran was producing more uranium than allowed by existing procedures [4] Strategic Considerations - Discussions within the US administration are ongoing regarding potential actions, including assisting Israel in eliminating Iran's nuclear capabilities [6][7] - Israel believes it is acting in the interest of multiple nations by countering Iran's nuclear ambitions [8] - Potential strategy involves setting back Iran's nuclear program by targeting facilities, especially those underground [5]

Regime Vulnerability & Potential Collapse - The Islamic Republic is potentially at its weakest point after 46 years of rule [1] - Recent Israeli attacks have significantly weakened the regime operationally, strategically, and psychologically [1] - The regime lacks domestic support, with leaked internal polls suggesting 70% of the country doesn't support it [6] - The regime's traditional religious and lower economic class base no longer supports it due to economic pressures [6] - The regime is more vulnerable than ever and could very easily collapse [15] Political Alternatives & Transition - There's significant sympathy and support for the pre-revolutionary system [10] - Reza Pahlavi, the Shah's eldest son, is seen as a potential alternative, willing to be a transitional leader [11][12] - Pahlavi aims to secure a peaceful transition and lead the country to democratic elections [12] Geopolitical Implications & Investment Considerations - If the regime survives, it's likely to pursue nuclear weapons, potentially expediting the process [13][15] - Western policymakers and investors should consider what a different Iran might look like [16] - The current regime's aim is to buy time and get sanctions relief due to the crushed economy [16]

Minister, I've made it clear time and again, Israel will never allow those who call for our annihilation to develop the means to achieve that goal. Tonight, Israel backs those words with action. We struck at the heart of Iran's nuclear enrichment program. We struck at the heart of Iran's nuclear weaponization program.We targeted Iran's main enrichment facility in Natans. We targeted Iran's leading nuclear scientists working on the Iranian bomb. We also struck at the heart of Iran's ballistic missile program ...