Geopolitical Risk & US Foreign Policy - The US administration is considering military strikes against Venezuela, allegedly targeting drug trafficking operations run by President Maduro, with potential land strikes being imminent [1][2][6] - The administration's justification for military actions against drug trafficking is inconsistent, initially focusing on fentanyl but now appearing to target cocaine, with experts questioning the administration's strategy [3][4] - There is a lack of congressional authorization and transparency regarding potential military actions in Venezuela, raising concerns about regime change by presidential fiat [16][18][19] - The shift in US policy towards Venezuela, from negotiation to regime change, is attributed to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, raising questions about the extent of President Trump's direct involvement [10] - The administration has lowered the bar for lethal actions, potentially leading to increased civilian casualties and extrajudicial killings [33] Allegations & Evidence - The administration claims that Venezuela exports approximately 500 tons of cocaine annually to Europe and the United States [2] - The administration alleges that Venezuelan military bases are being used for drug trafficking, but there is no evidence presented to Congress to support this claim [26][27] - There are allegations of endemic corruption within the Maduro regime, but the claim that Maduro is directly running a drug cartel is disputed [28] Potential Outcomes - The US military actions could be a bluff to pressure the Maduro government or a prelude to war [15] - The US has a history of unsuccessful attempts to instigate military coups in other countries [25]