Investment Allocation - Crypto should account for up to 40% of portfolios [1] Market Trend - More Bitcoin is suggested [1]

In today's newsletter I wrote about Ric Edelman's bombshell announcement that he's now recommending 10-40% allocation to crypto for his investor portfoliosIf you don't know Ric, he manages $300B in assets for 1.3M clients and has a 40-year track record of successHe is now calling the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio dead and effectively calling for crypto to enter the picture over bonds.His crypto recommendation:- 10% crypto allocation for conservative investors- 25% for moderate risk- 40% for aggressive growthHe ...

ab 13 June 2025 Global Research Global Strategy EM Credit: Mid-year Outlook - How to navigate 2H25 Fiscal dynamics, valuations and oil to weigh; US flows to partly offset Conflicting factors are pulling EM credit in different directions as the middle of the year approaches. On the macro side, EM fiscal G-R dynamics, taken as a whole, are weakening (point #1 below) while valuations are expensive again by historical standards (at least 1 STD below 10y avg. across all rating buckets, see Figure 1EM spreadnow g ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends positive optimal allocations to both gold and enhanced oil futures in long-run portfolios as strategic hedges [4][55]. Core Insights - The report concludes that positive long-run allocations to gold and enhanced oil futures are optimal for minimizing risk or tail losses in equity-bond portfolios [2][10]. - Gold serves as a hedge against losses in central bank and fiscal credibility, while oil protects against negative supply shocks [2][10]. - Historical data shows that during any 12-month period when real returns for both stocks and bonds were negative, either gold or oil provided positive real returns [9][13]. Summary by Sections Strategic Case for Gold and Oil - Investors are seeking protection for equity-bond portfolios due to recent failures of US bonds to hedge against equity downside and rising borrowing costs [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of gold and oil as hedges against inflation shocks affecting portfolio returns [2][10]. Recommendations for Long-Term Portfolios - A higher-than-usual allocation to gold is recommended due to risks to US institutional credibility and increased central bank demand [2][41]. - A lower-than-usual allocation to oil is advised because of high spare capacity and reduced risk of shortages in 2025-2026 [2][50]. Tactical vs. Strategic Positioning - For tactical positioning (0-2 years), the report suggests using oil puts to hedge against recession risks and benefit from increasing oil supply [2][54]. - For strategic hedging (5+ years), it recommends going long on gold and maintaining a positive but underweight position in oil [2][54][55]. Historical Performance Analysis - Historical analysis indicates that adding gold and enhanced oil futures to a 60/40 equity-bond portfolio can reduce volatility significantly [20][23]. - The report highlights that gold and oil futures have historically provided diversification benefits due to their low correlation with equities and bonds [26][29]. Expected Returns and Risks - The report forecasts a potential gold price increase to $3,700 per ounce by year-end and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 due to institutional credibility concerns [43][49]. - It also notes that while oil shortages are less likely in the near term, long-term risks remain due to potential supply growth slowdowns from 2028 [50].

Electronic copies of IMF Policy Papers are available to the public from http://www.imf.org/external/pp/ppindex.aspx International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. May 2025 © 2024 International Monetary Fund GUIDELINES FOR INVESTING PRG, RS, PRG-HIPC, AND CCR TRUSTS' ASSETS IMF POLICY PAPER GUIDELINES FOR INVESTING PRG, RS, PRG-HIPC, AND CCR TRUSTS' ASSETS IMF staff regularly produces papers proposing new IMF policies, exploring options for reform, or reviewing existing IMF policies and operations. The followi ...

原油市场内参：押中4月油价暴跌！顶级投行集体转向，市场误读欧佩克+增产真实目的，交易者如何 调整仓位配置？当前反弹下能否追涨？油价目标位全解析，从宏观推演到技术面狙击>> 相关链接 ...