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Cava Shares Crash. Should Investors Buy the Stock on the Dip or Run for the Hills?
The Motley Foolยท 2025-08-16 16:10
Core Insights - Cava Group's same-store sales growth significantly slowed in fiscal Q2, leading to a nearly 40% decline in stock price year-to-date [1][2] - The company reported a 20% year-over-year revenue increase to $278.2 million and opened 16 new restaurants, bringing the total to 398 locations [4][6] Sales Performance - Same-store sales growth was only 2.1% in fiscal Q2, a sharp decline from previous double-digit growth rates and below the expected 6.1% [2][3] - Guest traffic remained largely flat, indicating potential challenges in attracting new customers [2] Financial Metrics - Restaurant-level margins (RLMs) were reported at 26.3%, slightly down from 26.5% a year ago, indicating stable profitability at the restaurant level [5] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 23% year-over-year to $42.1 million, with operating cash flow of $98.9 million and free cash flow of $21.9 million [6] Future Outlook - Management revised its full-year comps growth outlook down to a range of 4% to 6% from the previous 6% to 8% [7] - The long-term goal is to reach at least 1,000 store locations by 2032, with plans to open 68 to 70 new locations this fiscal year [4][10] Investment Considerations - Cava's stock is trading at a high forward P/E ratio of nearly 123 and a forward P/S ratio of 7, indicating it may not be cheap [11] - If Cava achieves its expansion goals, it could generate close to $4.5 billion in revenue by 2032, with consistent mid-single-digit comps growth [11][12]