Core Insights - Bitcoin is losing its appeal as a safe-haven asset during times of geopolitical uncertainty, contrary to its theoretical position as sound money that resists censorship [1] - Investors are increasingly selling Bitcoin in favor of gold, which has seen a price increase of 8.6% to near $5,000 since January 18, while Bitcoin has dropped 6.6% in value [2] Market Behavior - Bitcoin's liquidity and ease of trading make it a preferred asset to sell quickly for cash during market stress, while gold is typically held rather than sold [3][4] - The volatility of Bitcoin leads to it being sold reflexively as leverage is unwound, contrasting with gold's role as a liquidity sink in risk-off environments [4] Demand Dynamics - Central banks are purchasing gold at record levels, creating strong structural demand, while long-term Bitcoin holders are selling, contributing to a "seller overhang" that dampens Bitcoin's price support [5] - Onchain data indicates that vintage Bitcoin coins are moving toward exchanges, suggesting ongoing selling pressure [5] Risk Perception - Current market turbulence is viewed as episodic, with gold serving as a hedge against immediate risks, while Bitcoin is better suited for long-term concerns like fiat debasement [6][7] - Gold excels in situations of immediate confidence loss and geopolitical risks, whereas Bitcoin is more aligned with slow-moving trust erosion over years [7]