Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin may be entering a new "winter phase," characterized by weakening supply-demand dynamics and deteriorating capital flows, despite historically elevated prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Current conditions resemble the early stages of a broader downturn, with downside pressure increasingly dominating the market [2]. - High nominal prices, ETF adoption, institutional participation, and stronger infrastructure create a perception that the current cycle is structurally different from 2022 [3]. - The market "winter" is defined by weakening supply-demand dynamics rather than just price levels [3]. Group 2: Capital Flows - Inflows of $10 billion in 2024 expanded Bitcoin's market cap, but over $300 billion in inflows during 2025 coincided with a declining market cap, indicating structural selling pressure [4]. - The base case suggests Bitcoin may already be entering a winter phase, with elevated prices masking underlying weaknesses [4]. Group 3: Sentiment and Indicators - Sentiment data indicates that sharp negativity and widespread "doom" predictions often align with local bottoms, creating potential dip-buying opportunities [5]. - Stronger contrarian signals emerge when extreme language is used, reflecting true capitulation in the market [6]. - Objective on-chain indicators, such as the 30-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), provide clearer guidance on market conditions [6].