Core Insights - Strategy (MSTR) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 30, with expected revenues of $117.1 million, reflecting a 0.9% year-over-year growth, and a consensus loss estimate of 11 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days [1][9]. Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, Strategy reported non-GAAP earnings of $32.52 per share, a significant improvement from a loss of 76 cents per share in the same quarter last year. On a GAAP basis, earnings were $32.60 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of a loss of 12 cents per share [4]. - The consensus estimates for the current quarter and the next year remain stable, with a projected loss of 11 cents per share for Q3 2025 and an expected loss of 40 cents per share for the next year [2]. Bitcoin Holdings and Market Position - As of October 12, 2025, Strategy holds 640,250 bitcoins, an increase from 628,791 at the end of Q2 2025. This positions the company as the largest bitcoin treasury holder, significantly ahead of competitors like MARA Holdings and Riot Platforms [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recent establishment of a strategic bitcoin reserve by the Trump administration, alongside increasing institutional and corporate adoption of bitcoin [7]. Revenue Growth Drivers - Strategy's software subscription revenues surged 44% year-over-year to $48 million, accounting for 41.9% of total revenues in Q2 2025. Subscription services alone increased by 69.5% year-over-year to $40.8 million, indicating a strong growth trend likely to continue into Q3 2025 [8][9]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, MSTR shares have returned 2.1%, underperforming the Zacks Finance sector's 13.6% return and the Financial Miscellaneous Services industry's 2.7% appreciation. Competitors like IREN Limited and Riot Platforms have seen significant stock price increases [10]. - MSTR's valuation appears stretched, with a Value Score of F and a price/book ratio of 1.77, higher than MARA Holdings' 1.51 [13][14]. Future Outlook - Strategy anticipates achieving a bitcoin yield of 30% and $20 billion in gains if the bitcoin price reaches $150,000 by year-end. For 2025, the company expects operating income of $34 billion, net income of $24 billion, and earnings of $80 per share based on this bitcoin price outlook [19]. - However, recent bitcoin price volatility poses challenges to achieving these targets, as current trading levels are significantly lower than the recent peak of $125,338.99 [20].