Consumer Sentiment & Economic Impact - University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers are not strong three weeks before Black Friday [1] - Low consumer sentiment is observed, but upper-middle and luxury consumer spending remains strong [2] - Government shutdown negatively impacts lower to middle-income consumers, widening the K-shaped economy [3] Retail & Inventory - Overall inventory levels appear to be in good shape, with some inventories brought in early to manage tariff impacts [5] - Managing margins against higher costs due to tariffs will be a headwind in the first half of 2026 [5] - Promotions are not significantly increasing heading into Black Friday, and Amazon Prime Day in October was solid but not exceptionally strong [6][7] Value & Off-Price Retail - Lower-income consumers are focusing on necessities and value pricing [7] - Value is constituted by brand and price, with off-price retailers, Walmart, and Costco representing value options [8] - Retail real estate landlords are seeing strength in leasing from value players [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [4] Core Insights - Most companies in the Greater China Technology Hardware sector report no negative impact from tariffs on their operations, with several companies expressing confidence in achieving their growth targets [6][4] - The demand for servers is expected to remain strong in the domestic market, contributing positively to revenue growth [6] Company Summaries - **AAC Technologies Holdings**: The company is optimistic about achieving its full-year growth target, driven by thermal solutions and new optical breakthroughs, with expectations of continuous improvement in gross margins [1] - **BYD Electronics**: Experienced a revenue decline in its high-margin component business but is seeing strong growth in its new EV business and anticipates rapid growth in the server business due to strong domestic demand [2] - **Transsion**: The first quarter is typically a slow season for smartphone shipments, but the company expects a margin recovery, with its IoT business growing faster than smartphones, particularly due to energy storage demand in Africa [3] Stock Ratings Overview - **AAC Technologies Holdings (2018.HK)**: Overweight [57] - **BYD Electronics (0285.HK)**: Overweight [57] - **Transsion Holdings (688036.SS)**: Overweight [57] - **Sunny Optical (2382.HK)**: Equal-weight [57] - **Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK)**: Overweight [57]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Watsco reported a strong first quarter with a 10% increase in sales for the core HVAC replacement business driven by higher volumes and a richer mix of high-efficiency systems [6][9] - Gross margins improved following the launch of new systems, with the company aiming for a long-term gross profit margin goal of 30% [34][9] - The company has $430 million in cash, no debt, and over $3 billion in equity, indicating a strong balance sheet [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core HVAC replacement business saw a 10% increase, while the commercial products segment experienced a decline of around 10% due to the transition from 410A to 454B refrigerants [6][71] - The residential new construction market was noted to be softer year-over-year, but the company believes it has not lost market share in this segment [30][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic sales accounted for 91% of first-quarter sales, with mid-single-digit growth observed in the domestic market [58] - International sales, which represent 9% of total sales, were noted to be weaker, with greater uncertainty in Canada and Latin America [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Watsco is transitioning to the new A2L refrigerant systems, which are expected to impact around 55% of total sales and are seen as beneficial for business in the long term [4][5] - The company emphasizes its scale, technology, and relationships with OEM partners to adapt quickly to changing market conditions [12][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the upcoming selling season, expecting benefits from the new A2L products to materialize in the stronger second and third quarters [9][4] - The company is closely monitoring the potential impact of proposed tariffs and is collaborating with OEM partners on pricing actions [11][9] Other Important Information - Watsco raised its annual dividend by 11% to $12 per share, marking the 51st consecutive year of dividend payments [10] - The company is actively training customers and updating technology platforms to support the transition to new refrigerant systems [5] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on residential sales growth - Management indicated that most of the first-quarter growth was from 410A, with a transition to A2L products expected in the second quarter [18][19] Question: Impact of price increases on gross margin - Management noted that the first quarter saw clean pricing without significant price increases, with gross margin improvements primarily due to a favorable segment mix [22][21] Question: International sales performance - Management acknowledged that international sales were weak but not significant enough to impact overall performance, attributing some of the softness to fewer selling days in the quarter [27][28] Question: Transition to A2L refrigerants - Management confirmed that there were no significant delays in the transition to A2L products and that the market is adapting well [80][81] Question: Price increase mechanisms - Management clarified that most pricing actions are price increases rather than surcharges, indicating a stable pricing environment [138][135] Question: Supply chain issues with refrigerants - Management acknowledged shortages of 454B refrigerant due to container issues but emphasized that there is no shortage of the refrigerant itself [96][97] Question: Consumer behavior regarding repairs versus replacements - Management indicated that both repair and replacement markets are expected to grow, with a positive outlook on energy-efficient product sales [105][110]