Market Performance & Investment Sentiment - China's market has outperformed its global peers this year, narrowing the performance gaps with countries like the U.S., Japan, Korea, and Taiwan [1] - Investor sentiment towards China has subtly shifted from super optimistic to a more balanced or neutral stance, though still slightly under-balanced [4] - A disconnect exists between the economy and the market, with investors seeking economic recovery and better earnings to sustain the rally into next year [6] Key Drivers & Surprises - A significant surprise this year was China's technological breakthrough, potentially positioning it better than the U.S. in certain aspects of AI [7][8] - China has demonstrated its leverage and preparedness, alleviating fears of being cut off from the global trade and financial systems [9][10] - Investors have high confidence in policymakers, supply, and liquidity supporting the stock market, making further positive surprises on this front less likely [12] Economic Impact & Policy - A technology breakthrough leading to high-paying jobs is seen as a potential positive surprise, which could fundamentally turn around consumption and stabilize the property market [12][13] - More decisive and forceful policy in addressing overcapacity issues would be welcomed by the market [14] - The wealth effect from the stock market rebound is not expected to be significant, as much of household wealth remains locked in the property market [16][17] Valuation & Earnings - Valuations are getting stretched not only for China but even more so for other Asian markets, especially Northeast Asian markets [21] - The market is hoping to see an earnings turnaround as a key driver for future growth [20][21] - Even with a stock market recovery, a K-shaped consumption pattern is anticipated, benefiting wealthier households while mass market consumption remains depressed [22][23]

Trump’s trade war is a pain, but less so than many executives expected. Among products getting some relief from tariffs are auto parts and cocoa. https://t.co/UOjFMUXzIB ...

Until recently, an obscure metal often found in gold mines was considered detritus. Now, antimony is one of the most sought-after metals and is at the center of the U.S.-China trade war. https://t.co/DU8YJMZsR0 ...

The US Supreme Court expressed skepticism at arguments made by President Donald Trump’s lawyers seeking to preserve the basis for much of his global trade war: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/copfH4ptzb ...

New today, Defense Secretary Pete Hexath announcing another air strike on a suspected drug boat in the Caribbean. Hegs says all three people on board were killed and called them narot terrorists. He did not provide any evidence for his claims, but it is the 15th strike since early September.Democrats say they're getting left in the dark. This document needs to be shared with every member of the Senate this week so that as we get into this discussion about war powers, we've got the basis of how the administr ...

The U.S. thought a trade war would change China’s economic policies. It was wrong, write the Wall Street Journal’s Jonathan Cheng and Jason Douglas. https://t.co/d3I3PO4wht ...

Paul Krugman is the Nobel economist, longtime author of textbooks, New York Times columns, and now the Paul Krugman Substack, uh, where he has confronted this secondterm Trump administration with clarity and cander, the latest piece, how we lost the trade war. Uh, welcome back, professor. Uh, you're you're better at the complex economics.I, as you know, can read. So, I noticed that it says lost, not losing. Uh, let's start there.Why is this in your view factually already lost. >> Okay, think of this as a co ...

President Trump appears to be easing his trade war for now, helping his Solana meme coin pump amid what an analyst called a “relief rally.” https://t.co/IafYe3vByt ...

Trump might think he has the upper hand, but he's handing Xi a victory in the trade war, @KarishmaJourno says (via @opinion) https://t.co/rduV23CHJC ...

China’s success in the trade war is reinforcing the Communist Party’s domestic authority https://t.co/rqLx1cYUGO ...