Market Outlook - Short-term market style may experience fluctuations during the July earnings season, with new consumption potentially entering a second wave of growth after adjustments, and AI technology likely to resume momentum after a period of consolidation [1][3] - The weighted index shows a "bullish divergence" in moving averages, suggesting that quick pullbacks may present buying opportunities [1][3] - If geopolitical risks do not escalate further and domestic policies continue to release positive signals, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have short-term upward potential, while medium to long-term performance will depend on the sustainability of macroeconomic recovery and external stability [1][3] A-share Performance - As of midday, the total trading volume in the A-share market reached 925.1 billion yuan, an increase of 241.3 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 4,600 stocks rising, indicating strong market resilience [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,415.45 points, up 1.0%; the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 1.45% and 1.94% respectively, with the ChiNext Index showing particularly strong growth, reflecting increased attractiveness of growth sectors [1] - The STAR 50 Index increased by 1.51%, indicating sustained high interest in technology innovation sectors [1] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong market continued its upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,150.76 points, up 1.95%; the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 2.28% to 5,305.29 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.92%, highlighting the growing influence of mainland assets in the Hong Kong market [1] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, several sectors performed notably well, including the autonomous driving sector driven by Tesla's launch of self-driving taxi services in Texas, humanoid robots boosted by the unveiling of embodied intelligent robots, and the financial sector benefiting from positive outlooks on stablecoin development and policy expectations [2] - The solid-state battery sector continued its strong performance due to U.S. companies starting production and improvements in the supply chain [2] - Conversely, the oil and gas sector faced significant declines due to the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and a sharp drop in international oil prices [2] Hong Kong Sector Dynamics - The Hong Kong market exhibited clear sector differentiation, with tech stocks generally rising, and Chinese brokerage stocks gaining strength from new policies [2] - New energy vehicle companies saw significant gains as May sales surpassed those of fuel vehicles, marking a new phase of "electric dominance" [2] - New consumption stocks attracted attention due to high earnings growth rates and valuation alignment, while the oil and gas equipment and services sector experienced substantial declines following the ceasefire [2] Market Drivers - Market movements were primarily influenced by geopolitical factors, policy direction, and industry fundamentals [2] - Although the Middle East situation caused short-term market disturbances, signals of conflict de-escalation were quickly absorbed [2] - Domestic policies supporting technology and finance are gradually showing effects, with new initiatives boosting market confidence [2] - Positive changes in industry fundamentals, such as increased penetration of new energy vehicles, advancements in solid-state battery production, and improved earnings expectations in the consumption sector, further stimulated capital allocation enthusiasm [2]

在利率下行的大环境下，分红险固浮结合的特点，使之成为消费者青睐的险种。近期，保险公司陆续披 露分红保险红利实现率，也引发市场关注。 那么，什么是红利实现率？如何理解红利实现率与实际产品收益的关系？如何选择分红产品？ 所谓分红/红利实现率，是由利益演示红利水平和实际分配红利两方面决定（实际分配红利/利益演示红 利）。分红实现率不代表实际派发红利的高低。 一方面，分红产品的利益演示（分母）反映销售时对长期市场经济环境的预期。据悉，一些过往年度保 单由于历史销售时较高的利益演示，使其红利实现率低于100%。反之，若险企利益演示红利水平偏保 守，更容易出现红利实现率高于100%水平的情况。这意味着，红利实现率高于或低于100%，都属于正 常的波动现象。与此同时，不同公司和不同销售时间段的红利实现率也会存在差异。 再者，近年来根据要求，分红险分红部分的信息披露更为规范，这在一定程度上也能减少投资者对于分 红部分浮动收益担忧的顾虑。因此，未来分红险仍值得消费者期待。 另一方面，实际分红水平（分子）受当前市场经济环境变化及波动影响。在产品销售时，条款/建议书 均有提示：实际保单红利根据本公司分红保险业务未来实际经营状况确定 ...

Group 1: Banking Sector - The banking sector has seen a cumulative increase of 9.84% as of June 13, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 12 percentage points, driven by the influx of incremental funds and adjustments in public fund allocations [2][4] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potential improvement in bank performance due to a combination of credit expansion, controlled interest margins, and enhanced asset quality expectations driven by policy support [2][3] - Investment strategies recommend focusing on quality city and rural commercial banks, capitalizing on structural opportunities, and leveraging the expansion and quality improvement of major broad-based index ETFs [4] Group 2: Non-Banking Sector - The securities sector has underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 7.99% year-to-date as of June 16, 2025, despite a strong performance in Q1 where 42 listed securities firms reported a 20.18% increase in revenue [7][8] - The anticipated continuation of accommodative monetary policy and ongoing capital market reforms are expected to support liquidity and improve the operational environment for the securities industry [7][8] - Investment recommendations focus on strong leading brokers, those likely to enhance core competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions, and brokers with differentiated wealth management features [9] Group 3: Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle in the second half of 2025, driven by a recovering global economy and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12][13] - Gold prices are projected to continue their bullish trend, supported by increased global demand and geopolitical tensions, while copper is seen as a favorable investment opportunity due to long-term supply-demand dynamics [13][14] - The strategic value of rare earth materials is highlighted, with domestic supply controls and increased export demand likely to drive price improvements in the rare earth sector [14][15] Group 4: Communication Sector - The communication industry is experiencing a recovery in performance, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and the optimization of capital expenditure by operators [18][19] - The second half of 2025 is expected to present new investment opportunities in the AI computing industry chain, satellite internet, and quantum technology, with significant growth potential in these areas [18][19] - Investment strategies emphasize the importance of operator profitability, cash flow improvements, and the growth of the optical communication sector [20] Group 5: Construction Sector - The construction industry is projected to benefit from increased infrastructure investments, particularly in water conservancy and energy projects, as part of the government's economic stabilization efforts [23][24] - Major projects in the western region, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, are expected to inject significant investment into the construction sector [24][25] - Investment recommendations focus on infrastructure growth, high dividend yields, and sectors such as low-altitude economy and cleanroom engineering [25] Group 6: North Exchange - The North Exchange has maintained a high level of trading activity, with a recent decline in the North Exchange 50 index by 2.55% [27][28] - The market is expected to remain attractive for medium to long-term investments, particularly in companies with strong growth potential and those involved in mergers and acquisitions [31] - The focus is on companies that emphasize diversified layouts and industry chain collaboration, as well as state-owned enterprises with stable operations and strong growth capabilities [31]

金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20250619 当前（2025 年 6 月 19 日）中银多策略行业配置系统仓位： 通信 （10.6%）、电子（8.7%）、综合金融（8.2%）、银行（8.0%）、建材 （ 7.4% ） 、 国 防 军 工 （ 7.4% ） 、非 银 金 融 （ 7.2% ） 、 有 色 金 属（7.0%）、医药（6.9%）、钢铁（4.4%）、煤炭（3.2%）、房地产 （3.1%）、石油石化（2.9%）、交通运输（2.8%）、综合（2.7%）、家 电（2.7%）、食品饮料（2.6%）、传媒（1.5%）、计算机（1.4%）、汽 车（1.4%）。 相关研究报告 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（八）："估值泡 沫保护"的高景气行业轮动策略》20221018 《中银证券宏观基本面行业轮动新框架：对传 统自上而下资产配置困境的破局》20230518 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（九）：长期反 转-中期动量-低拥挤"行业轮动策略》20240 ...

Market Overview - On June 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.39%[2] - The total trading volume on June 23 was 1.15 trillion CNY, an increase of approximately 60 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Key sectors that saw significant gains included computer, military, coal, and banking, while food and beverage, home appliances, and steel experienced slight declines[1] - Major inflows of capital were observed in software development, semiconductors, and batteries, while the top outflows were in liquor, white goods, and electricity sectors[4] Economic Indicators - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with tax revenue down by 1.6%[5] - National general public budget expenditure for the same period was 112,953 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2%[5] Financial Developments - The scale of domestic bond ETFs surpassed 350 billion CNY, with two bond ETFs crossing the 50 billion CNY threshold for the first time[12] - The Shanghai market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism meeting was held, with 19 core member units participating[6] Industry Insights - A breakthrough in bidirectional high thermal conductivity graphite film research was reported, achieving a thermal conductivity of 1,754 W/m·K, which supports 5G chip and power semiconductor thermal management[9] - The PC monitor market in China saw a total shipment of 7.07 million units in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 14.0%[11]

地缘冲突缓和趋势推动市场避险情绪迅速回落，油价大幅回吐地缘溢价。内外盘原油期货价格持续走 低，其中美国WTI原油主力合约延续隔夜大跌趋势，24日盘中一度跌超6%，最低报64.38美元／桶；布 伦特原油主力合约一度跌超4%，报67.41美元／桶。国内原油期货合约开盘跌停，现报520元／桶，跌 幅为8.7%。 受国际油价大跌影响，油气股集体大跌，通源石油、洲际油气、宝莫股份、泰山石油、贝肯能源、准油 股份、中曼石油、山东墨龙等多股跌停。 业内人士对新华财经表示，从历史上看，地缘政治因素对油价的影响往往"昙花一现"，过往国际地缘冲 突的影响也较为短暂，长期来看，经济前景和供需关系仍是决定油价走势的关键，短期旺季带来一定利 好，但不影响中长期供需平衡表从宽松转为过剩后的下行压力。建信期货能源化工高级研究员李捷认 为，油价基本都是在冲突发生时迅速拉涨，但涨幅也很快被"抹去"。 国泰君安期货分析师表示，短期来看，考虑到7月初OPEC+潜在的增产计划，原油市场本轮趋势上涨可 能告一段落。但低库存、季节性旺季、页岩油供应下滑等短期利好可能限制油价下跌速度，单边走势或 先从上行趋势转为宽幅震荡市，再趋势下跌。 4月OPEC+已 ...

世界卫生组织23日发布的《2025年全球烟草流行报告》说，世卫组织提出的控烟措施已覆盖全球超过61 亿人口，但还需继续行动推进控烟。 据世卫组织网站的消息，这份报告是当天在爱尔兰首都都柏林举行的世界控烟大会上发布的。报告重点 介绍了世卫组织提出的MPOWER一揽子控烟措施的实施情况，这些措施包括：监测烟草使用与预防政 策，通过无烟空气立法保护人们免受烟草烟雾危害，提供戒烟帮助，通过包装标签和大众媒体警示烟草 危害，执行烟草广告、促销和赞助禁令，以及提高烟草税。 烟草使用导致全球每年700多万人死亡。报告指出，自2007年以来，已有155个国家实施了至少一项上述 控烟措施，覆盖人口超过61亿，占世界人口的四分之三；而在2007年，全球只有约10亿人受到至少一项 控烟措施的保护。 报告还显示，控烟措施最显著进步体现在烟草产品包装的健康警示方面，要求在烟草产品包装上采用健 康警示的国家已从2007年的9个增加至目前的110个，覆盖全球62%的人口。此外，已有79个国家实施了 全面的无烟环境政策，覆盖了全球约三分之一的人口；监管或禁止电子烟的国家数量从2022年的122个 增加到2024年的133个。 今年是《世界卫 ...

For media and investors only Researchers identified variants which may cause activated phosphoinositide 3-kinase delta (PI3Kδ) syndrome (APDS)Results enable clinical genetic testing labs to appropriately reclassify VUSs, accelerating the path to a definitive APDS diagnosis for many patientsFindings reveal APDS may be more prevalent than previously estimatedWebcast to take place on Monday, June 30, 2025, at 16:30 CEST / 10:30 EDT Leiden, the Netherlands, June 24, 2025: Pharming Group N.V. (“Pharming” or “the ...

物业的重要性不言而喻。好的物业不仅让你住得安心，还能让房子保值增值。要是碰上个不靠谱的物 业，整天家里停电停水，你还有好心情过日子吗？到时候房子都得砸手里！ 哎，说到买房这个人生大事，真是几家欢喜几家愁啊！我自己也经历过这样的心路历程，深知大家在买 房时最怕的是什么。那听我一句劝：买房一定要坚持"5不选"，这不是迷信，而是实打实的经验和教 训。买错了房子，谁买谁后悔啊！ 1. 不选地段偏远的 别为了图个便宜，跑去鸟不拉屎的地方买房。你上班通勤要多久？孩子上学方不方便？家里老人看病怎 么办？这些都是实际问题。偏远地段虽然价格诱人，但生活便利度大打折扣。到时候你哭都来不及！ 2. 不选物业不靠谱的 3. 不选户型奇葩的 户型奇葩的房子，住进去才知道有多坑。比如卧室正对大马路，每天噪音不断；或者厨房通风不良，做 个饭都一身油烟味。这样的房子住得憋屈，转手都难！ 4. 不选质量有问题的 买房可不能贪图便宜买了豆腐渣工程。质量不过关的房子，住几年就开始漏水、开裂，安全隐患大得 很。到时候维修费用高昂，还可能影响到你的生命安全。 5. 不选没有发展潜力的 买房也不能只看眼前，还得看长远的发展潜力。比如靠近地铁、学区、商业 ...

建银亚洲还将在6月22日至8月31日推广期内推出现金奖励，客户设定建银亚洲为转数快预设收款银行，并成功完成最少一次1000港元/人民币或以 上的转数快转账，可享100港元转数快现金奖赏。汇丰银行表示，合资格的客户通过"跨境支付通"每次接收最少港币1000元或人民币1000元，有机 会获得10美元"奖励金"，活动有效期至2025年9月30日。 此外，部分银行还推出了实时换汇服务，方便客户直接进行人民币兑换和转账操作。（闻辉） 【环球网财经综合报道】6月22日，跨境支付通正式上线，首批参与跨境支付通的内地银行包括工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通 银行和招商银行；香港银行则涵盖中银香港、东亚银行、建银亚洲、恒生银行、汇丰香港和工银亚洲，后续参与范围有望进一步扩大。 跨境支付通开闸，多家试点银行披露了详细的业务规划与特色服务。例如，农业银行将于6月22日在深圳启动试点，7月拓展至广东、海南等地； 建设银行也表示，6月22日跨境支付通将先在广东、深圳、海南试点，后续推广至全国。 部分银行宣布"免除手续费"，农行公告称，与传统跨境汇款业务相比，该行跨境支付不仅"秒到账"，而且试点期间免除手续费。建设银行也表示 ...