晨会纪要（2025/06/26） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/06/26） 宏观及策略研究 按图索骥：技术生命周期模型的科技投资借鉴——A 股市场专题策略报告 公司研究 力传感器龙头企业，传感器森林布局日趋完善——柯力传感（603662）公司 深度报告 行业研究 把握创新主线，关注业绩反转板块——医药生物行业 2025 年半年度投资策略 报告 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.06.26） 宏观及策略研究 按图索骥：技术生命周期模型的科技投资借鉴——A 股市场专题策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、引言： 2025 年初以来，以 Deepseek 为代表的人工智能技术突破和人形机器人概念的兴起，带来了科技板 ...

2025年6月26日星期四 ➢ 美联储拟松绑资本监管；美伊将恢 复对话。A股延续强势，放量上升。 上证指数涨1.04%报3455.97点，深 证成指涨1.72%，创业板指涨3.11%。 券商为先的大金融板块再创高点。 港股延续跳空高开反弹。恒生指数 收盘涨1.23%报24474.67点，恒生科 技指数涨1.15%，恒生国企指数涨 1.13%。大金融持续强走高，券商板 块热度高。大盘成交额2678.01亿港 元。外盘方面，欧洲股市普跌。美 国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌 0.25%，标普500指数持平，纳指涨 0.31%。美联储披露针对大银行的资 本监管松绑计划。特朗普称美国与 伊朗将于下周对话。 资料来源：彭博 | 24474.67 | 1.23 | 22.01 | | --- | --- | --- | | 8859.29 | 1.13 | 21.53 | | 5359.02 | 1.15 | 19.94 | | 128.56 | -0.39 | -10.10 | | 3455.97 | 1.04 | 3.11 | | 10393.72 | 1.72 | -0.20 | | 3960.07 | 1.44 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Guanglian Aviation held a roadshow on June 25, with participation from over 10 institutions, highlighting its role as a supplier for major aircraft projects and its comprehensive industrial layout in the aerospace sector [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Guanglian Aviation is involved in multiple large aircraft development projects, serving as a supplier for C919 components and assembly lines for C929, as well as designing and manufacturing the AG600 assembly line [1] - The company has established a three-dimensional industrial layout system relying on military industrial groups and research institutes, with production bases in various locations to integrate into regional aviation industry ecosystems [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company has achieved a full-chain business layout, creating a business loop that vertically constructs the aviation manufacturing industry chain and horizontally expands into multiple fields, enhancing the advantages of industrial chain linkage [1] - Guanglian Aviation provides research and development support to major manufacturers, with some products available for export, and has already delivered the WJ-700 drone structure in bulk [1] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The company is participating in the development of aerospace products and aims to expand its market share through potential overseas orders [1] - In recent years, the aviation tooling business has seen significant growth due to increased demand and enhanced industrial support capabilities post-listing [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - To leverage its core business capabilities, Guanglian Aviation has secured preliminary R&D tasks to strengthen customer loyalty and reserve future market share, anticipating rapid growth in parts business following tooling R&D completion [1] - The company plans to increase R&D investment to explore the low-altitude segment and develop new growth areas, responding to the demand for flying vehicles in low-altitude airspace [1]

Artificial Analysis是一家做 AI 能力测评的权威机构。 先看一些具体数据和案例。自从2022年ChatGPT发布后，中美AI之间的差距一度显得很大，但到了 2025年5月，这个差距已经缩小到不足三个月了。 这意味着，中国的AI实验室和企业在这些年里取得了巨大的进步。 这份报告盘点中国 AI 在全球的位置，顺便对比一下，中美在语言模型这块到底谁强一点。 01 DeepSeek R1（2025年5月）在Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index中评分68分；阿里巴巴的Qwen3 235B A22B评分47分。 相比之下：OpenAI的o3也是68分；Gemini 2.5 Pro则是67分，你看，中美两国在这方面的差距已经非常 小了。 中国是如何实现这一跨越的呢？简单来说：技术性能提升和战略上的突破。 帮助工程师和企业精准把握AI的能力，从而做出战略决策。它的方法是：用大量数据说话，做系统性 分析。 2025 年 6 月中期，它们发布了一份：《2025 年第二季度中国 AI 亮点报告》。 举个例子： 阿里巴巴发布的QwQ 32B Preview在2024年11月 ...

6月13日，云知声通过港交所聆讯，并于6月20日公布招股详情：计划发行156万股，定价区间为每股165.0至205.0港元，预计最多融资3.2亿港元（约合 4080万美元），股票代码为"9678"。 好家伙，老牌AI公司云知声的日子也是要好起来了！？ 这不，最近我们频繁的看到关于深耕语音领域的云知声要赴港IPO的消息。 那问题来了， 日子真的要好起来了吗？答案好像也没有那么简单。 与通常AI企业上市动辄数十亿的融资规模相比，云知声此次的募资额度显得异常"保守"和"迷你"。这一现象引发了市场的广泛关注与讨论：这究竟是一次 为储备弹药、大展拳脚的扩张性IPO，还是在重重压力之下，一场为了"上市而上市"的求生之举？ 深入剖析其招股书，我们发现，云知声的港股之旅，更像是一幅描绘了当前众多AI企业在技术理想与商业现实夹缝中艰难前行的缩影。 作为专注AI时代下，AI前沿科技及大公司商业秩序的精品自媒体，我们也试图做一个分析。 "赎回负债"压顶：上市或是唯一解药 云知声此次IPO最引人注目的，并非其宏大的AI叙事，而是其资产负债表上一项高达33亿人民币的巨额"赎回负债"。这串冰冷的数字，是理解其"保守"上 市背后动因的关键 ...

Group 1 - Chip stocks in Asia experienced a rise following Nvidia's record share close, reclaiming its title as the world's most valuable company with a market value of $3.77 trillion, surpassing Microsoft [1][4] - South Korea's SK Hynix saw a 3.53% increase in shares, while TSMC's shares rose by 0.47%. Foxconn also reported a 0.77% increase due to its strategic partnership with Nvidia [2] - Several Japanese chip stocks not directly linked to Nvidia also saw significant gains, with Advantest rising 3.93% to a record high and Softbank increasing by 4.38% [3] Group 2 - Nvidia's shares climbed over 4% to close at $154.31, marking a new all-time high since January, reflecting strong investor confidence in its dominance in artificial intelligence [3][4] - Despite facing export restrictions to China, Nvidia's growth trajectory remains strong, although it anticipates an $8 billion hit to sales and a $4.5 billion inventory write-down due to new regulations blocking sales of its H20 AI chip [5]

债券市场内部出现明显的期限结构调整。20年期国债活跃券收益率近一周下行5.5个基点，50年期下行4.65个基点，较其他期限下行幅度更大。在10年和30年 期债券陷入震荡的背景下，超长期债券的表现引起市场关注。这些期限品种具有更高的票息收益和资本利得潜力，成为机构配置的新焦点。 经济数据疲软强化宽松预期 美国经济指标出现波动为降息预期提供支撑。6月消费者信心指数意外下降5.4点至93，低于经济学家预期。消费者对进口关税上调的经济影响持续焦虑，支 出态度更加谨慎。预计未来一年利率上升的消费者比例升至57%，为2023年10月以来最高水平。 就业市场显现疲软迹象。ADP数据显示私营部门就业增幅创两年来最弱表现，ISM服务业指数意外下滑，该行业自去年6月以来首次出现萎缩。5月零售销售 环比下滑0.9%，低于市场预期，尽管核心零售增长0.4%仍高于预期。 美联储褐皮书显示，最近几周美国经济活动略有下滑，关税和高度不确定性正在对经济产生影响。大多数地区将就业描述为"持平"，普遍提到由于不确定性 导致招聘推迟。所有地区都指出劳动力需求减弱，工资以"适度"速度增长。 美债市场正经历四年来最为陡峭的收益率曲线调整。6月25日， ...

Group 1: Leadership Transition in Home Furnishing Industry - The home furnishing industry is experiencing a leadership transition as the "second generation" takes over from the "founding generation" amid a downturn in the market [1][4] - Key companies undergoing this transition include Senying Windows, where Bian Kerun, the son of the outgoing chairman Bian Shuping, has been appointed as the new chairman [1][2] - China Liansu has also seen a generational shift with Huang Zhanxiong, the son of the founder, becoming an executive director [1][2] Group 2: Financial Performance Challenges - Senying Windows reported a revenue of 566 million yuan for 2024, a decline of 39.71% year-on-year, with a net loss of 42.19 million yuan, marking a 128.9% increase in losses compared to the previous year [2][3] - China Liansu's revenue for the previous year was 27.026 billion yuan, down 12.45%, with a net profit of 1.684 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.89% [2][3] - A survey of 129 listed home furnishing companies revealed that 105 experienced a decline in performance, with 33 reporting net losses [3] Group 3: Market Conditions and Strategic Responses - The home furnishing industry is facing a "market pain period" due to a shift from growth to a more stagnant market, compounded by real estate and consumer demand challenges [2][3] - Both Senying Windows and China Liansu are looking to expand their overseas markets, with plans to increase international revenue to 20%-25% by 2028 [6] - China Liansu's overseas sales reached 2.286 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 8.5% of total revenue, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous year [6] Group 4: Potential of the New Generation - The new generation of leaders is characterized by higher education and international experience, which may benefit their companies' global expansion efforts [5][6] - The transition to younger leadership is seen as a necessary step for revitalizing companies during challenging times, as the founding generation steps back due to age [4][7] - Experts suggest that the current market conditions may provide an opportunity for the "second generation" to implement changes and drive recovery [7]

作为国内空间智能技术的先行者，宸境科技凭借视觉大模型、多传感器融合、三维导航、动态三维建图等核心技术，构建了覆盖室内外全场景的感知与交互 平台。随着AI技术向"具身化"演进，宸境将空间智能与人工智能深度融合，推出Physical AI通用型感知模组，为机器人赋予超越人类的"眼与脑"—— 技术突破：从3D导航到非结构化环境适配 1. 全场景感知能力：宸境自研的独有的纯视觉空间感知方案，可实现动态环境下的六自由度高精度定位、三维语义理解及自主路径规划，适应弱纹理、高动 态等复杂场景。让具身智能拥有更强的适配和场景落地能力并进一步降低成本和使用门槛。 2. 自主进化系统：基于长期记忆与动态更新的算法架构，机器人能够持续学习环境变化，实现跨场景任务迁移与多机协同； 3. 低成本高效部署：模块化硬件设计搭配轻量化算法，大幅降低机器人厂商的研发门槛与制造成本。 • 自学习视觉大模型：通过整合物理世界数据与仿真训练，实现环境理解的泛化能力，无需依赖预先标注的地图或人工干预，即可适应多种高挑战性场景； 00:00 / 00:00 倍速 • 异构传感器标定技术：纳秒级硬件同步与像素级校准，确保多源数据的高度一致性，提升感知精度 ...

Macro Overview - The report highlights the upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions, which may disrupt global trade, particularly as U.S. imports have shown a low-to-high trend since June, while South Korea's export growth has improved significantly [2] - U.S. consumer and employment markets are cooling, with weakened corporate confidence and persistent inflationary pressures, indicating potential trade volume disturbances as the July 9 tariff deadline approaches [2] Fixed Income Insights - Global liquidity has shifted, with funds flowing out of U.S. dollar assets back to local markets, leading to non-U.S. markets outperforming U.S. assets [3] - The report suggests that geopolitical tensions have eased, allowing funds to temporarily return to risk assets, while the basic economic outlook remains supportive of U.S. stock performance [3] Banking and Securities - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued guidelines to support consumption, proposing 19 specific measures to boost the consumption sector [3] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in quality regional banks and leading brokerage firms, emphasizing the positive policy outlook and expected economic recovery [3] Transportation Sector - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for the second half of 2025: high-volatility airline stocks, core assets benefiting from foreign capital inflow, and shipping opportunities amid tariff and geopolitical disturbances [5] - Specific stock recommendations include major airlines and logistics companies with strong competitive advantages and stable profitability [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - The 2025 ASCO conference showcased a significant increase in the participation of domestic innovative drugs, with approximately 67 studies presented, marking a 35% increase from 2024 [7] - Notable drugs such as IBI363 and MRG003 have shown promising data, indicating potential breakthroughs in treatment options [7] Mechanical Equipment - The report notes a transition in the domestic manufacturing cycle towards passive destocking, influenced by strategic emerging industries [5] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on technological innovation and industry upgrades, particularly in AI, engineering machinery globalization, and new energy technologies [5]