2025年07月02日 证券研究报告 | 金属行业中期投资策略 供给收缩需求稳增，逆全球化下金属价值重估 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 有色金属 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：刘孟峦 证券分析师：杨耀洪 证券分析师：焦方冉 证券分析师：马可远 证券分析师：谷瑜 010-88005312 021-60933161 021-60933177 010-88005007 021-61761033 liumengluan@guosen.com.cn yangyaohong@guosen.com.cn jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn makeyuan@guosen.com.cn guyu@guosen.com.cn S0980520040001 S0980520040005 S0980522080003 S0980524070004 S0980524110001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 ◆工业金属：表观需求高增长叠加供给端有序可控，价格重心不断抬升 铜铝表观需求高增长，库存不断下降，价格重心不断抬升。上半年表观需求增速5%以上。电力、光伏、新能源汽车贡献增量需求 ...

随着世界多地气温不断攀升，各类能带来"清凉"的产品出口火热。记者发现，风扇帽、宠物冰垫等小型清凉用品格外受到海外客户欢迎。 在义乌国际商贸城。各类新奇的"小玩意儿"吸引着外国采购商的目光。在这家店铺，装上了太阳能风扇的帽子吸引了不少采购商。 阿富汗采购商 阿卜杜尔：我非常喜欢中国的清凉产品，不仅设计美观，而且这样的产品在我们那里市场前景广阔。 记者发现，商家还敏锐捕捉到了全球宠物市场的新商机。在这家店铺里，新上架的宠物冰垫和宠物冰脖供不应求。产品里填充的凝胶，可快速吸收宠物散发 的热量，并将热量排散出去。 泰国采购商 奥德：这些产品质量不错，而且价格也合适，很适合我们国家。 义乌市沣沛宠物用品公司店长 楼锦锦：南美的，有墨西哥、智利、巴西、阿根廷这些国家，很多都提前到这里来采购。 外贸电商平台阿里国际站数据显示，近30天，便携式小风扇、移动式空调、制冰机、双门冰箱、冰柜等成为采购商采购的热门品类，销售额同比增长近 77%。 义乌国际商贸城经营户 袁茶芳：普通款充电款式，没电还得带充电宝，还要蓄电才会有电继续工作，太阳能就不用担心考虑这个问题。 平常的产品加上创意的巧思，就能卖出好价钱。在这家伞店，带风扇的防晒 ...

上海正围绕制造、医疗、科学等5+6重点行业全面实施"模塑申城"工程 当前，人工智能正在重塑产业版图，成为重构生产关系的超级变量。张宏韬表示，实施"人工智能+"行 动是实现价值闭环的必由之路。上海正在围绕制造、医疗、科学等5+6重点行业全面实施"模塑申城"工 程，推动人工智能与传统产业、新兴产业、新赛道、未来产业等深度融合。 大会上，智谱CEO张鹏发布了智谱携手生态伙伴迈向AGI的两项最新成果：一是开源发布新一代通用视 觉语言模型GLM-4.1V-Thinking，以推理能力为核心突破，刷新10B级别多模态模型性能上限。 解说苏超足球比赛、解答2025高考数学真题、看图买菜……在张鹏的演示下，多模态大模型正在从"看 得见"走向"看得懂、想得通"。 GLM-4.1V-Thinking大模型，是一款支持图像、视频、文档等多模态输入的通用推理型大模型，标志着 GLM系列视觉模型实现从感知走向认知的关键跃迁。张鹏解释说，该大模型通过引入"思维链"推理机 制，在回答准确性、内容丰富度与可解释性方面，全面超越传统的非推理式视觉模型，在28项评测任务 中有23项达到10B级别模型最佳，18项任务持平甚至超过8倍参数量的Qwe ...

本次活动是淄博市保险行业协会贯彻落实"7·8全国保险公众宣传日"精神，积极履行社会责任的重要举措。协会将以此次活动为新的起点，以"教育一个学 生、带动一个家庭、辐射整个社会"为目标，持续加强与区域内各类院校的协调沟通，不断拓展合作的深度与广度，将金融安全的种子广泛播撒，助力构建 起覆盖全民、贯穿始终的金融安全防护体系。 Inter Beach ran gu By The House I wa 践行社会主义核心价 S I 早曲 文明 本 のままあまま 热烈欢迎淄博市保险行业协会、瑞众人寿 莅临管理学院调研指导 2025年6月 ▲ e K r 1 2017 s 200 为切实筑牢校园金融安全防线，提升大学生金融素养与风险防范意识，在"7·8全国保险公众宣传日"来临之际，淄博市保险行业协会精心组织策划，于6月26 日携手瑞众人寿保险淄博中心支公司走进齐鲁医药学院，成功开展了主题鲜明、内容实用的"保险知识进校园"宣讲活动。 深化交流，共育人才，探索校企合作新路径。活动伊始，淄博市保险行业协会专职副会长吕文亮、瑞众人寿保险淄博中心支公司负责人秦宝义一行与齐鲁医 药学院管理学院院长徐敏祥及院方代表进行了深入座谈交流。三方 ...

截至7月2日亚盘早市，现货黄金延续隔夜涨势，价格攀升至3339.53美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨0.02%，盘中最高触及 3344.92美元/盎司，创一周以来新高。 特朗普政府力推的"大而美"税收与支出法案于7月1日获参议院通过，计划十年内减税4万亿美元并提高债务上限5万亿美 元。这一政策虽旨在刺激经济，但美国国会预算办公室（CBO）预测将导致未来十年联邦赤字增加2.8万亿美元，市场对 财政可持续性的担忧加剧。美国银行（BofA）指出，赤字扩大可能引发利率波动和美元走弱，进一步强化黄金作为抗通 胀工具的需求。与此同时，美元指数受减税政策引发的财政赤字担忧拖累，跌至96.7下方，为2022年2月以来最低水平， 为黄金提供了强势支撑。 | 美元指数 | | | | | | の 已添加 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ಳು | FX DINIW √ √ 外汇 ■ Level1基础行情 | | | | | | | 96.674000 +0.0360 +0.0400% | | | | | | | | 交易中 07-02 11:26 北京时间 | | | | ...

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 孟广鑫 刘洪岭等7名同志荣获"优秀共产党员"，祝继旺、管明霞两名同志荣获"优秀党务工作者"称号。主席台领导为获奖人员颁发荣誉证书、纪念奖章，金灿灿 的奖章与红彤彤的证书，既是对先锋模范的崇高致敬，更是对全体党员一次深刻的精神洗礼。 党委书记徐秀菊以《初心如磐践使命 奋楫扬帆新征程——以学习教育赋能古贝春集团高质量发展》为题，为全体党员干部上了一堂生动而鼓舞人心的党 课。党课分为五个部分：以政治建设为舵，锤炼忠诚品格；以作风建设为基，锤炼过硬队伍；以服务员工为本，凝聚发展合力；以创新驱动为翼，激活发 展引擎；以中央八项规定精神为镜，永葆清廉本色。徐秀菊书记要求全体党员干部、广大员工要以此次党课为契机，携手共肩，以信仰为帆、奋斗为桨， 在新时代的壮阔征程中谱写古贝春更加辉煌的华章。 徐秀菊强调：一要加强理论学习，在提升政治素养、学习党的历史和优良传统中凝聚奋进力量；二要强化责任担当，在推动企业发展中勇挑重担、敢打头 阵；三要提升专业素养，在学习新知识、新技能中实现认知迭代与能力跃迁；四要加强团队协作，在团结协作中凝聚力量、共谋发展；五要严守纪律规 矩，在廉洁自律中树立形象、赢得信任，推动学习教 ...

Business Overview - Insteel Industries is the nation's largest manufacturer of steel wire reinforcing products for concrete construction applications[6] - In 2015, Welded Wire Reinforcement (WWR) accounted for 57% of sales, while PC Strand accounted for 43%[5] - Nonresidential construction represents 85% of sales, while residential construction accounts for 15%[9] - Concrete product manufacturers account for 70% of sales, while distributors, rebar fabricators, and contractors make up 30%[10] Growth Strategy & Acquisitions - Existing facilities are capable of generating over $700 million of annualized revenues at current ASPs with minimal incremental capex required[31] - In November 2010, Insteel acquired Ivy Steel & Wire, Inc for $50.3 million[34] - In August 2014, Insteel acquired American Spring Wire Corporation for $33.5 million[37] - Closure of Newnan facility in March 2015 is expected to generate approximately $3.0 million of annualized cost savings[106] Financial Performance - Fiscal Year 2014 net sales were $409 million[29] - EBITDA for 2015 was $46.7 million, representing 10.4% of EBITDA Margin[54] - Capital expenditures are expected to increase to $20.0 million in 2016, including $9.0 million related to the expansion of the Houston PC strand facility[71] - As of October 3, 2015, Insteel was debt-free with $33.3 million of cash and cash equivalents[74] Market Outlook - Total construction spending for 2014 was up 4.8% from the prior year[80] - Total construction spending for August YTD 2015 was up 9.8% from the prior year[84] - Architecture Billings Index rebounded to 53.7 in September 2015[101] - Dodge Momentum Index in September 2015 was up 5.8% from the prior month and 20.9% from a year ago[104]

Business Overview - Insteel Industries is the nation's largest manufacturer of steel wire reinforcing products for concrete construction applications[6] - The company manufactures and markets welded wire reinforcement (WWR) which accounts for 61% of 2016 sales, and prestressed concrete strand (PC strand) products which accounts for 39% of 2016 sales[5] - Nonresidential construction accounts for 85% of sales, while residential construction accounts for 15% of sales[9] - Concrete product manufacturers account for 70% of sales, while distributors, rebar fabricators, and contractors account for 30% of sales[10] Growth Strategy - Existing facilities are capable of generating over $700 million of annualized revenues at current ASPs with minimal incremental capex required[31] - In November 2010, Insteel acquired Ivy Steel & Wire, Inc for $50.3 million[34] - In August 2014, Insteel acquired American Spring Wire Corporation for $33.5 million[37] Financial Performance - FY2016 net sales were $418.5 million[40] - The company's gross profit for 2016 was $85.2 million, representing a gross margin of 20.4%[51] - EBITDA for 2016 was $73.1 million, with an EBITDA margin of 17.5%[55] - As of October 1, 2016, Insteel was debt-free with $58.9 million of cash and cash equivalents[77] Market Conditions and Outlook - Total construction spending for 2015 was up 10.6% from the prior year[83] - Total construction spending for August YTD 2016 was up 4.9% from the prior year[86] - The FAST Act authorizes $305 billion of funding over a five-year period, including $226.2 billion for federal highway investment[106] - The first phase of the Texas PC strand expansion is expected to reduce annual operating costs by $5.0 million[107]

Business Overview - Insteel Industries is the nation's largest manufacturer of steel wire reinforcing products for concrete construction applications[6] - In 2017, Welded Wire Reinforcement (WWR) accounted for 62% of sales, while PC Strand accounted for 38%[5] - Nonresidential construction accounted for 85% of sales, while residential construction accounted for 15%[9] - Concrete product manufacturers accounted for 70% of sales, while distributors, rebar fabricators, and contractors accounted for 30%[10] Growth Strategy & Acquisitions - Existing facilities are capable of generating over $700 million of annualized revenues at current ASPs with minimal incremental capex required[30] - In November 2010, Insteel acquired Ivy Steel & Wire, Inc for $50.3 million[33] - In August 2014, Insteel acquired American Spring Wire Corporation for $33.5 million[36] Financial Performance - FY2017 net sales were $388.9 million[39] - In 2017, raw materials accounted for 67% of the cost of sales, manufacturing costs accounted for 26%, and freight accounted for 7%[43] - EBITDA in 2017 was $48.2 million, representing 12.4% of EBITDA Margin[55] - Net earnings in 2017 were $1.17 per diluted share[61] - As of September 30, 2017, Insteel was debt-free with $32.1 million of cash and cash equivalents[73] Market & Outlook - Total construction spending for 2016 was up 6.5% from the prior year[80] - Total nonresidential building construction is forecasted to grow 3.8% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018[100] - The FAST Act authorizes $305 billion of funding over a five-year period, including $226.2 billion for federal highway investment[104]

Q：请问重阳投资，如何看待今年以来港股IPO爆发？ 受益于IPO环境改善，港股正经历优质资产供给的结构性升级。以蜜雪集团为代表的全球消费企业，以 宁德时代为代表的中国核心制造企业，以及以恒瑞医药为代表的中国优质创新药企等纷纷赴港上市。这 些优质核心资产港股IPO基石投资者认购比例高，上市后股价平均涨幅优秀，带动港股优质资产占比进 一步提升，行业结构的优化有望进一步吸引中长期资金对港股的配置。港股当前兼具估值安全边际、产 业升级动能与流动性支撑，中长期配置价值凸显，我们坚定看好港股的中长期表现。 ▲向上滑动阅览【免责声明】 本材料由上海重阳投资管理股份有限公司（简称"重阳投资"）原创并编辑发布，仅限于提供信息和投资 者教育的目的。本材料所依据信息和资料来源于公开渠道（例如：万得、彭博）和内部研究成果，相关 信息被认为是可靠的，但重阳投资不对其完整性或准确性作出任何明示或默示的陈述或保证。相关信息 仅供参考，不构成广告、销售要约，或交易任何证券、基金或投资产品的建议。本材料中引用的任何实 体、品牌、商品等仅作为研究分析对象使用，不代表重阳投资的实际操作。因基金产品投资限制、投资 组合调整和交易成本等多种因素，重阳 ...