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商业行业2025年中期策略报告:需求向好,竞争与增长并存-20250626
CMS· 2025-06-26 02:52
Group 1: Macro Retail Trends - The retail sector and e-commerce are experiencing steady growth, with a notable increase in consumer demand driven by government subsidies for replacement purchases. In the first five months of 2025, retail sales grew by 5% year-on-year, with specific monthly growth rates of 4.6%, 5.1%, and 6.4% in Q1 and April to May respectively [14][19][22] - E-commerce continues to outpace overall retail growth, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 6.3% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, indicating a steady rise in online penetration [17][28] - Essential goods show resilience, with food and daily necessities growing by 13% and 6.2% respectively in the same period, while government-supported categories like home appliances are leading the growth in discretionary spending [19][22] Group 2: E-commerce Sector Insights - The e-commerce industry is on an upward trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.3% in online retail sales, surpassing the overall retail growth rate. Major platforms like Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo are showing strong performance, with JD benefiting from government subsidies [28][31] - Competition in the e-commerce sector is easing as platforms shift away from aggressive price wars towards optimizing their unique competitive advantages. This strategic shift is expected to enhance profitability and market stability [31][32] - Instant retail is emerging as a high-growth segment within e-commerce, with the market expected to exceed 1.7 trillion by 2030, driven by consumer demand for faster delivery options [37][46] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Services - The snack retail sector is highlighted for its efficiency and high turnover, with leading companies like Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang showing strong performance. The focus is on differentiating quality retail to meet consumer demands [4][22] - The tea beverage market is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in lower-tier cities, with brands like Guming and Mixue benefiting from increased consumer interest and delivery services [5][22] - The travel and tourism sector is recovering, with domestic travel showing a 26.4% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, indicating strong consumer demand for leisure activities [22][26]
海通证券晨报-20250626
Haitong Securities· 2025-06-26 02:50
[Table_Summary] 1、固态电池利好政策频出,应用前景广阔。随着中试线陆续落地,头部企业在固态电池端的"落 子"有望吸引更多企业"入局",产品技术迭代迎来持续向好。 2、①历史上港股与美股走势更相关,但 2020 年以来背离增多,而港股与 A 股联动明显增强。② 原因 1:过去港股外资占比高且港币与美元挂钩,流动性多受海外影响,当前外资占比下降、南 向流入,与内地流动性联动加深。③原因 2:随着内地优质企业赴港上市,优质资产或在港集聚, 中资股在港股市值/利润结构中举足轻重,港股基本面与内地联动更趋紧密。 3、科创板分层有利于优质半导体企业在资本市场脱颖而出,配合 AI 与自主可控相关的产业大趋 势,AI 有望实现与科创共振。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 国泰海通晨报 2025 年 06 月 26 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 行业跟踪报告:动力锂电《全固态电池正进入从 0 到 1》 2025-06-23 徐强(分析师)021-38676666、牟俊宇(分析师)021-38676666、李依雯(研究助理)021-38676666 投资建议:看好全固态电池产业化进程加速,建议关注 ...
跨境支付通业务落地点评:跨境支付体系多元化,稳定币异军突起
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-26 02:49
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][14] Core Insights - The launch of the Cross-Border Payment System marks a significant step in diversifying China's RMB cross-border payment framework, enhancing connectivity between residents of mainland China and Hong Kong [4][5] - The RMB cross-border payment system has three main models: CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System), mCBDC Bridge (Multilateral Central Bank Digital Currency Bridge), and BRICS Pay (BRICS Countries Payment System), with a total of 8.21 million transactions processed in 2024, amounting to 175.49 trillion RMB, a 43% year-on-year increase [5][8] - The Cross-Border Payment System connects mainland China's IBPS (Interbank Payment System) with Hong Kong's FPS (Faster Payment System), allowing residents to make small remittances and payments instantly using just a mobile phone number, significantly improving fund transfer efficiency compared to traditional bank remittances [4][6] Summary by Sections Cross-Border Payment System - The Cross-Border Payment System was officially launched on June 22, 2024, facilitating real-time remittances between residents of mainland China and Hong Kong [4] - It supports various high-frequency scenarios such as salary payments, tuition fees for studying abroad, and medical payments, promoting economic integration in the Greater Bay Area [6] RMB Cross-Border Payment System - The CIPS system, operational since 2015, has expanded its reach to cover global financial markets, with 174 direct participants and 1,509 indirect participants as of May 2025 [5][7] - The system is recognized as the third-largest clearing system globally, with continuous high growth in transaction volumes [7] Stablecoins and New Payment Paths - Stablecoins are emerging as a new path for cross-border payments, leveraging technological innovations to reshape the payment landscape and reduce reliance on traditional financial systems [8][9] - The use of stablecoins can significantly reduce transaction times from 3-5 days to mere minutes, with costs typically below 1%, compared to an average fee of 6.62% for traditional cross-border remittances [8]
中国旺旺(00151.HK):24财年新兴渠道贡献增量 料25财年增长稳健
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-26 02:49
机构:中金公司 研究员:陈文博/方云朋/王文丹 FY24 业绩符合市场预期 25 财年收入有望稳健增长,利润率或基本平稳。公司于去年底推动组织变革,增加8 个产品事业部,设 立专门的单位针对新老产品提供营销方案、拓展更多渠道;建议关注后续组织变革成效。根据我们草根 调研,公司4-5月米果、乳饮及休闲食品均实现中低单位数的稳健增长。受益于公司积极拓展新兴渠道/ 海外市场以及组织变革,我们预计公司25 财年各品类有望实现稳健增长。利润端,公司当前已储备未 来6 个月大包粉库存,我们预计大包粉价格上涨或对乳品毛利率有一定不利影响,但其他原材料稳中有 降、销量增长、收缩部分米果促销投入等有望对冲,25 财年利润率或基本平稳。 盈利预测与估值 公司公布FY2024 年业绩:收入为235.1 亿元,同比-0.3%,归母净利润为43.4 亿元,同比+8.6%;其 中,2HFY24 收入为126.3 亿元,同比+2.6%,归母净利润为24.7 亿元,同比+9.5%。净利润表现符合市 场预期;派息低于市场预期,主因公司为应对可能的投资机会和capex 增长、可能降低负债等;长期看 公司股息及股份回购的策略不变。 发展趋势 需求 ...
又新高了!这个“银行AH+小微盘”组合妙在哪儿?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-26 02:49
截至本周二,也就是6月24日,"银行AH+小微盘"组合又双叒叕新高,2025年内涨幅21.76%,跑赢全部申万一级行业。 这个组合具体包括: 40%的银行AH优选ETF(517900)+ 30%的1000ETF增强(159680)+ 30%的中证2000增强ETF(159552) 那么问题来了:"银行AH+小微盘"组合为何这样强?它妙在哪里? 一、 银行做底仓,压舱实在强 组合第一个过人之处就是选中了今年连创新高的银行股做底仓,这里有三个其他板块无法比拟的优势。 来源:民生证券 2.其次是股息率优秀。 截至今年6月中旬,上市大行、股份行、城商行的股息率大部分位于4%-5%的区间,10年国债到期收益率却在2%以下。对比来说银行股具备 超额收益更多,股息价值凸显。 综合来说,ROE和股息率均较高的标的,会更容易获得机构青睐。因此,银行股迎来第三个优势: 3."长钱"增持多。 1.首先是银行股ROE绝对领先。 根据统计,2024年上市银行的ROE算数平均值为10.2%,其中位于11%以上的高达14家,分别为成都银行17.8%、杭州银行16.0%、招商银行 14.5%、常熟银行14.2%、江苏银行13.6%,景气度非 ...
建行短線上升動能持續,窩輪與牛證產品部署策略解析
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-26 02:49
| 信號總結 | 賣出信號 中立信號 買入信號 | | --- | --- | | 強力買入 | 16 | 成交方面,昨日成交額達33.91億港元,反映大型資金正密集部署,特別是在股價突破前期阻力位時同步放量,更具技術意義。MACD目前持續維持多方結 構,並與一目均衡表共同指出價格進入上升雲帶,代表中短線趨勢已轉向偏多。保力加通道進一步佐證當前行情處於上軌區間,有望在量能配合下進一步向 阻力2的8.65港元發展。 近期港股市場震盪整理,但部分大型權重股卻逆勢展現堅實上升動能,其中建設銀行(00939.HK)正是一例。根據2025年6月25日的技術面數據,該股當日收報8.11港 元,錄得1.37%的升幅,不僅創下近月新高,更突破了多個中期阻力位。從市場動能與技術指標交叉分析來看,建行目前正處於一段可能延續的短線強勢波段中,具 備進一步上行潛力。 截止今日(26日)9點54分,建行股價報8.11元。根據2025年6月23日數據顯示,建設銀行相關衍生品在正股上漲3.97%的背景下表現搶眼。花旗認購證15290 兩日內大漲68%,漲幅達到正股的17倍;匯豐認購證15330同期上漲52%,漲幅為正股的13倍。牛證方面, ...
对话佳都科技:以技术和数据领跑行业,积极探索智慧交通增长新动能
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-26 02:49
推动城市轨道交通建设是保障和提升公共交通质量效率的重要手段,而在技术爆发和政策的持续支持 下,智能化需求正成为国内城市轨道交通行业的重要增长动力之一。 《中国城市轨道交通智慧城轨发展纲要》自2020年发布以来,已经对国内城市轨道交通的发展产生了深 远的影响。政策引导下,智能化前沿技术在轨道交通领域的研究和应用力度正逐步提升。据中国城市轨 道交通协会统计数据,截至2024年底,国内已有23座城市开通了54条FAO(全自动运行)线路,运营里 程达到1486公里,远超《纲要》原定在2025年底前通车1000公里的目标。 佳都科技执行总裁陈娇认为未来国内智慧轨交行业发展的动力依然充沛,"随着对于地铁运营要求的提 高,包括降本增效以及对乘客的满意度、准点率、运行安全等不同指标的追求,智能化仍将是众多的轨 道交通运营商所共同追求的一个目标。" 汇正财经研究员覃凌云表示,中国智能交通市场在过去四年内实现了翻倍增长,目前整体规模大约达到 万亿级别的水平,在全球范围内有着非常大的规模优势。同时,由于国家大力支持科技创新,预计人工 智能在轨道交通和城市交通的应用有望陆续获得资金、政策、人力方面较大的扶持。 作为一家在城市轨道交通 ...
王兴兴:每月保持技术进步,宇树经得起考验
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-26 02:49
谈及中国科技创新在近年来的集中涌现,王兴兴将原因之一归功于年轻一代的崛起。他表示90后和00后从小通过互联网接触到了全球的前沿科技信息,在成 长过程中积累了丰富的支持。与此同时,社会对年轻人的支持力度也越来越大。根据王兴兴观察,新的AI技术往往诞生在近五年,"年轻人在学校中接触和 学习的东西就是最新的,所以从某种程度上来说,现在年轻人(在AI领域)的机会更多"。 面对行业竞争,王兴兴仍然秉持着"每月一进步"的技术要求。王兴兴认为,在新兴技术行业,企业至少要保持每个月都有明显的技术进步,才能跑在行业前 列。"如果你自己停滞了,确实没人能帮得上你,这是最现实的一件事情。" 竞争不可回避。王兴兴坦言,从长远来看,有压力才有动力。他回忆宇树科技早年进入四足机器狗行业时,行业也已"卷过一波"。"虽然现在更卷,但我们 现在的底子也厚了不少,所以我觉得目前我们还是能经得起考验。" 此外,关于商业应用场景,王兴兴也表示,尽管目前行业尚未进入大规模应用阶段,但他期待通过技术,尤其是AI模型的进步推动行业发展,实现更广泛 的市场拓展。王兴兴强调,机器人的应用市场不能"硬推"。技术与市场的匹配度至关重要,过早或强行推广技术可能导致 ...
实干争先年,向心而行:裕民县市监局开展全国节能宣传周和全国低碳日自治区宣传活动
Zhong Guo Shi Pin Wang· 2025-06-26 02:37
Group 1 - The core theme of the national energy conservation publicity week is "Green Transformation, Energy Conservation Attack," while the theme for the National Low Carbon Day is "Green and Low Carbon, Beautiful China" [1] - The event aims to enhance public awareness and understanding of energy conservation and low-carbon concepts through various activities and educational materials [1][2] - The activities included practical tips for energy saving in daily life, such as turning off lights, setting air conditioning to reasonable temperatures, and using energy-efficient appliances [1] Group 2 - The publicity campaign achieved significant results, distributing 50 promotional materials and engaging with over 100 participants online [2] - Public recognition and commitment to low-carbon lifestyles increased, with citizens expressing intentions to use public transport and reduce single-use items [2] - Companies are also committing to enhance their energy conservation efforts and invest in technological upgrades to fulfill social responsibilities [2]
飞沃科技1年1期亏损 2023上市超募2.9亿国联民生保荐
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-06-26 02:36
| | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 本报告期比上年同期增减(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(元) | 446,068,588.08 | 237.735.395.40 | 87.63% | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利 | -2.665.802.99 | -24.665.699.40 | 89.19% | | 润(元) | | | | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣除 非经常性损益的净利润 | -2,626,902.97 | -27,376,160.38 | 90.40% | | (元) | | | | | 经营活动产生的现金流量净 | -49,955,588.38 | 70.654.844.64 | -170.70% | | 额(元) | | | | 2023年6月15日,飞沃科技在深交所创业板上市。飞沃科技公开发行股票1,347.0000万股,发行价格为 72.50元/股。上市次日,该股盘中创下股价高点75.34元,此后股价震荡下跌。目前该股处于破发状态。 飞沃科技发行的保荐人(联席主承销商)为民生证券股份有限公司(现为国联民生(601456)证券股份有限 公司),保 ...