证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 招商研究一周回顾 （0704-0711） 招商研发宏观组与策略组重要观点回顾摘要： 宏观组。 1、对宏观政策而言，反内卷政策与传统的财政、货币政策还是有较大区别，也就 是说下半年的宏观政策手段可能是一些非传统的措施。但是只要能看到价格形势 的边际转变，同样也会对资产价格造成影响。那么大致的方向应该是：权益产品 的基本面将逐步改善，价格水平将从市场收益率的下行动力转变为上行压力。短 期内，顺周期商品价格可能延续底部回升的走势。 2、特朗普签署"大而美"法案。特朗普对政府及共和党控制力稳固并加强，其地位 在 6 月以来的一系列"成功"后得到巩固。司法方面，特朗普获得美国最高法院对 总统行政权力的支持。一方面特朗普为后续施政扫除了障碍，将更坚定其当前路 线，整体政策倾向不会发生大的变化（即核心关注国内移民、经济议题，对外方 面关注关税贸易议题、大国关系再平衡）；另一方面，需要警惕特朗普在政治上 的自信进一步加强，或有可能导致其在关税贸易等对外议题上不太容易妥协。 策略组。 1、从中期的趋势来看，"反内卷"是推动指数走牛的关键力量，"反内卷"驱动上市 公司削减资产开支，出清过剩产能，经 ...

行情回顾 美元指数本周整体震荡上行，延续上周非农后的反弹走势，主要受到特朗普贸易威胁的消息与市场对美联储货币政策预期的牵动，曾接近98关口但未能成功 上破。本周料将录得三周来首次收涨，截至发稿报97.8。 现货黄金周初区间震荡，期间一度下破3300关口，但随着市场消化特朗普关税"大棒"的威胁，周三欧盘开始稳步回升，截至发稿站上3350美元/盎司。另 外，央行数据显示，我国连续第8个月增持黄金。现货白银周四、周五涨势显著，截至发稿站上37.7美元/盎司，今年涨幅接近30%，创2011年以来最高。 非美货币方面，澳元兑美元本周持续走高，澳洲联储维持利率不变，与市场预期相违背；英镑和欧元兑美元震荡下跌，英镑恐将录得六连跌；美元兑日元周 一大幅上涨后区间盘整。 国际油价方面，红海局势因胡塞武装袭击再度升温、俄罗斯6月原油产量仍低于OPEC+目标、OPEC+有望在10月暂停增产等因素对油价起到推高作用，但是 美国EIA原油库存意外增超市场预期，叠加市场对全球需求前景的担忧加剧，油价周四起转跌，本周料整体小幅收涨。 风险资产方面，市场基本忽视特朗普最新的关税威胁，风险偏好持续好转，英伟达市值创4万亿美元，带动标普500指 ...

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has announced the addition of 33 experts to its industry consulting expert database, covering fields such as advanced manufacturing, information technology, new materials, and new energy [1] - The newly added experts include specialists in aerospace, quantum technology, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and integrated circuits, enhancing the focus on technological innovation [1] - Following this addition, the total number of experts in the database has increased to 66, further optimizing industry configuration and enhancing the authority of the expert database [1]

黄楚平强调，要以攻坚之势推动产业能级跃升，进一步集成政策、集中力量、集聚资源。打好关键核心 技术"攻坚战"，鼓励科研机构与龙头企业深度合作，把我省制造业基因和人工智能更好结合起来，提升 产业科技创新整体效能。拓展应用场景"大舞台"，持续在智能制造、智慧医疗、智慧城市等领域开放应 用场景，完善首台(套)等应用支持政策，让更多"AI+机器人"企业放开手脚实战实操、走向市场、做大 规模。做强金融资本"助推器"，加大创投资金供给，促进投早投小投硬科技，以资本的乘数效应撬动产 业升级。营造创新生态"强磁场"，扎实推进算力基础设施建设，大力发展人工智能与机器人产业社区， 积极引育高水平人才，培厚产业发展肥沃土壤。 南都讯记者朱唯信7月11日，省加快推进现代化产业体系建设专题会议(人工智能与机器人产业专场)在 广州召开。会议深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于建设现代化产业体系的重要论述，认真落实省 委"1310"具体部署和全省高质量发展大会要求，围绕人工智能与机器人产业进一步凝聚共识、形成合 力、推动发展。省人大常委会主任黄楚平出席会议并讲话。 会上，10位专家学者、人大代表、企业代表、研究机构代表，就加快推进我省人工智能与机器 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Greater Bay Area (GBA) is being positioned as a global technology innovation hub, with strong support from national ministries emphasizing "central-local cooperation" and "three-region collaboration" to enhance its international standing in technology innovation [1][3][10]. Group 1: Government Initiatives and Support - The Ministry of Science and Technology aims to support the GBA in becoming a leading global technology innovation center [1]. - The Ministry of Education plans to establish a national technology transfer center in the GBA [1]. - The recent release of opinions by the Central Committee and the State Council emphasizes the need for integrated reforms in education, technology, and talent systems to enhance collaboration between industry, academia, and research [6]. Group 2: Regional Collaboration and Innovation Ecosystem - The establishment of a scientific alliance in the Shenzhen-Dongguan area aims to break administrative boundaries and foster resource sharing between the two cities, creating a collaborative innovation ecosystem [7]. - Guangdong's focus on breaking down regional barriers and enhancing innovation collaboration is evident in its continuous top ranking in regional innovation capabilities for eight consecutive years [11]. - The formation of the Guangdong Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Industry Alliance aims to blur the lines between enterprises, regions, and disciplines, promoting efficient collaborative innovation [11]. Group 3: Technological Empowerment and Policy Support - The GBA is implementing policies to support the artificial intelligence industry, including subsidies for computing power investments, which are crucial for small and medium-sized enterprises [12][14]. - The introduction of "computing power vouchers" allows companies to access necessary resources, thereby reducing innovation costs and enhancing efficiency [14][15]. - The "Yue Computing Action Plan" outlines a roadmap for building a collaborative computing power network across the GBA, supporting the region's goal of becoming an international technology innovation center [15]. Group 4: Talent Development and Mobility - The GBA is actively working on a multi-layered talent attraction system, facilitating the flow of talent across the region to support technological innovation [17]. - Initiatives like the "Million Talents Gathering in South Guangdong" plan aim to match high-level talent with strategic industries such as artificial intelligence and robotics [17]. - The completion of major infrastructure projects, such as the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge, enhances connectivity and supports talent mobility within the GBA [17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The GBA is poised to lead in building China's international technology innovation center, leveraging its collaborative efforts and innovative ecosystem to become a globally influential innovation hub [18].

Core Insights - Musk's xAI company launched the AI model Grok-4, which is claimed to be the "smartest AI in the world" and has excelled in various AI benchmark tests [1][8][10] Company Overview - xAI was founded on July 12, 2023, with the goal of addressing deeper scientific questions and aiding in solving complex scientific and mathematical problems [3] - Grok-4 is available for subscription, with Grok-4 priced at $30 per month and Grok-4 Heavy at $300 per month, making it the most expensive AI subscription plan currently [5] Performance Metrics - Grok-4 achieved impressive scores in various benchmark tests, including: - 88.9% in GPQA (Graduate-level Question Answering) - 100% in AIME25 (American Mathematics Invitational Exam) - 79.4% in LiveCodeBench (Programming Benchmark) - 96.7% in HMMT25 (Harvard-MIT Mathematics Tournament) - 61.9% in USAMO25 (USA Mathematical Olympiad) [8][10] - In the Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), Grok-4 Heavy reached a 44.4% accuracy rate, demonstrating doctoral-level performance across all fields [10] Technological Advancements - Grok-4's training volume is 100 times that of Grok-2 and 10 times that of Grok-3, with significant improvements in reasoning and tool usage capabilities [15][16] - The model is expected to integrate with Tesla-like tools later this year, enhancing its ability to interact with the real world [16] Future Prospects - Musk anticipates that Grok could discover useful new technologies as early as next year, with a strong possibility of uncovering new physics within two years [13][15] - The company plans to develop AI-generated video games and films, with the first AI movie expected next year [23][25] Economic Potential - In a simulated business scenario, Grok-4 outperformed other models in generating revenue, creating double the value of its closest competitor [22] - Musk stated that with 1 million vending machines, the AI could generate $4.7 billion annually [22]

21世纪经济报道记者柳宁馨 杭州报道 7月11日，在杭州拱墅区的瓜山未来社区青荷驿站，2名应届毕业生正在办理入住手续，当天还有28位年 轻人已入住。 其中一位毕业生告诉21世纪经济报道记者，自己学的是计算机专业，看到杭州提供让应届生免费入住的 青荷驿站就申请了，"我可以在这里住3天2晚，这几天会出去找工作面试，希望能留在杭州工作。" 与不少人口增速放缓的城市一样，杭州正面临"年轻人口焦虑"。2024年度，人口增量落后于广州、深圳 等一线城市，也被贵阳、合肥、长沙、南昌等城市甩在身后，杭州开始着急如何进一步吸引人口。 2024年杭州常住人口增量为10.2万人，创近5年增量新低，同时，杭州常住人口增量位列全国城市第 七，近5年来首次跌出前5名。 再看老年人口数据，杭州去年一年增加60岁及以上老年常住人口12.2万人，60岁及以上老年人口占总人 口比例已超过1/5。 7月1日起，杭州采用积分落户新政策，调整就业及参加社保情况指标，调整住所及居住年限情况指标， 继续降低落户门槛。 与此同时，年轻人选择城市的因素正在变化，工作是基础，生活是重点，包括城市服务、文化活动、教 育环境……城市未来想要吸引年轻人，需要从招商角 ...

科技出海 1、阿里达摩院多癌早筛AI全球推广，已服务9个国家地区2000万人次 当地时间7月9日，在瑞士日内瓦召开的联合国AI for Good 峰会上，阿里达摩院受邀分享多癌早筛AI的 最新进展。据了解，该技术已覆盖全球9个国家和地区，服务2000万人次，推动AI成为人类社会抗击癌 症的重要工具。 峰会上，达摩院医疗AI实验室多癌筛查负责人、资深算法专家张灵分享了达摩院在新加坡、沙特等国 家的实践案例。 2、Manus总部迁至新加坡 近日，有消息称通用AI智能体公司Manus（主体为 "北京蝴蝶效应科技有限公司"）对旗下部分国内业务 进行裁员，并将核心技术人员迁往新加坡总部，公司目前在中国区的员工总数为120人左右。 7月8日晚，据智通财经报道，Manus方面对此回应称，"基于公司自身经营效率考量，我们决定对部分 业务团队进行调整。公司将继续专注核心业务发展，提升整体运营效率。" 据了解，Manus公司总部已于2025年6月正式迁至新加坡，并在当地启动高薪招聘。 消费出海 1、茶颜悦色官宣出海，以电商形式进军北美 7月9日，茶颜悦色通过其官方微博宣布将以线上电商的形式拓展海外市场，首站定为北美。此次茶颜悦 ...

Core Insights - As of June 30, 2025, a total of 439 generative artificial intelligence services have completed registration with the National Internet Information Office [1] - From April to June, 93 new generative AI services were registered, with 74 additional applications or functions registered through local internet offices [1] - A total of 233 generative AI applications or functions have completed registration [1]

Group 1 - The "WAIC 2025" will take place in Shanghai from July 26 to 28, showcasing over a hundred innovative products, including robots performing high-precision tasks in various scenarios [1] - Siemens will debut its Industrial Copilot AI industrial assistant, while Tesla will present the Tesla Bot, highlighting advancements in embodied intelligence and AI applications in vertical scenarios [2] - The year is marked as the commercial beginning for humanoid robots, with companies like Zhiyuan Robotics set to unveil the Lingxi X2-Pro robot, demonstrating its versatility in flexible manufacturing and various service sectors [3] Group 2 - Black Lake Technology is leveraging intelligent agents to redefine the next-generation industrial operating system, focusing on small and medium-sized factories that are still in the "digitalization gap" [4] - The "WAIC 2025" will feature smart transportation experiences, including eVTOLs and L4 autonomous vehicles, showcasing advancements in urban mobility [9] - The Xu Hui District is establishing a 500 million yuan AI entrepreneurship fund to support early-stage startups, aiming to create an innovation hub for young talent [12]