我们假定当前正在突破基底（横盘结构），开启主升浪，情绪指标已经从低温区返回温暖区，此刻 平均股价指数还未实现突破，攻击姿态： 上证指数已经实现突破，攻击姿态： 整体态势和前不久给出的分析完全一致，参考《 稳定的收缩之后蕴藏着稳定的上升 》一文。主要两点：第一，回撤不会太深；第二已经到了牛市第一阶 段日线级别横盘末端（一般周期为8~10个月），主升随时可能到来。 不过近日对情绪指标可能掉入冰点的一时冲动看法要纠正一下，事实显示，日线级别进入主升前期，会落入寒冷区间，但未必掉入冰点。往轮牛市也是这 样，以下2014年主升前期的强势中继，情绪指标就没有掉入冰点： 2019年主升前期的强势中继，情绪指标也没有掉入冰点： 而当下的横盘结构还只有2T，如果是2T突破，应该很快就会有一个短期回调确认，以代替第3T。 我看自媒体都很兴奋，传檄天下的模样，这个要小心。说什么券商牛市旗帜已经揭竿而起了，真是这样吗？昨天券商涨停不过就三只股票，还都是中市值 的小券商，号称一哥的东财也是两点钟以后才开始拉的，换手不小且没拉满，我倒是觉得更像是高位派发。 深证综指已经实现突破，攻击姿态： 科创综指刚刚到达横盘结构上轨，攻击姿态： 但5 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the ChiNext index dropping by 0.84% and over 3,600 stocks in the market showing losses, leading to a trading volume decrease to 1.07 trillion yuan, down 182.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The market failed to rebound as expected after a sharp drop, breaking the trend of strong recoveries following declines observed since May [1] Key Index Movements - The Shanghai Composite Index has faced repeated challenges at the 3,400-point mark, with four previous adjustments mirroring each other, characterized by a middle bearish line breaking through multiple short-term moving averages and decreasing trading volumes [3] - The index's trading volume shrank to 1.067 trillion yuan during the latest attempt to breach 3,400 points, indicating a potential fifth adjustment on the horizon [3] Sector Performance - The liquor sector saw a notable increase, with the China Securities Liquor Index rising nearly 3% in a single day, although it has declined by 11.67% since the announcement of new alcohol restrictions on May 18 [3] - The old energy sector, including oil and gas extraction, has experienced a downturn, while the new energy sector has shown volatility, with solid-state battery stocks initially surging before a rapid decline following the refutation of production cut rumors in the solar industry [4] Institutional Support - The banking and insurance sectors have provided crucial support to the market, indicating the presence of protective forces [6] - A more proactive fiscal policy is anticipated for 2025, with special bonds and a moderately loose monetary policy expected to bolster market resilience [6] Valuation Insights - A-shares are currently at historically low valuation levels, with the liquor sector's dividend yield becoming attractive compared to ten-year government bond yields [8] - The liquor industry is projected to reach a "valuation-earnings" double bottom by 2025, suggesting a mid-cycle buying opportunity [8] Future Market Outlook - The upcoming week holds uncertainty regarding the adjustment path, with potential for either a deep break that could attract outside capital or a mild pullback that necessitates monitoring of technology sectors for renewed investor interest [10] - Historical patterns suggest that current market adjustments may be a precursor to significant rebounds, similar to past instances where policy support and valuation bottoms coincided [10]

Market Performance - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise over 1%, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, reaching a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index rising 3.11% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 191.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Reasons for the Rise - Market hotspots were concentrated in finance, military industry, and computer sectors, with more stocks rising than falling. The strong performance of the ChiNext 50 Index was attributed to geopolitical factors, policy support, liquidity recovery, and industry events [5] - Geopolitical developments, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, reduced market risk aversion and led to a capital influx into high-risk assets, benefiting the technology sector and the ChiNext [6] - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicated a potential for monetary easing, which may boost market risk appetite and attract foreign capital into emerging markets, particularly benefiting growth sectors like the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board [7] Policy and Market Support - Recent guidance from the central bank and six departments emphasized financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, aiming to stabilize economic fundamentals and enhance the flow of medium- to long-term capital into the market [8] - The implementation of monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and reduce financing costs is expected to promote stable development in the capital market [8] Industry Performance - The brokerage and fintech sectors showed significant performance, with news about stablecoins and regulatory approvals potentially driving valuations higher for leading brokerages [9] - Companies like CATL are benefiting from the accelerated industrialization of solid-state batteries, which are expected to become mainstream in the high-end market by 2030, presenting valuation opportunities for related firms [9] Market Outlook - Short-term focus should be on event catalysts and mid-year earnings reports, with potential for continued strength in the ChiNext if earnings exceed expectations and geopolitical stability is maintained [9] - From a mid- to long-term perspective, sectors like AI, new energy, and pharmaceuticals show clear growth logic, with the ChiNext 50 Index currently trading at a PE-TTM of approximately 31 times, below its historical average, indicating potential for valuation recovery [10]

A股复盘 | 阅兵牛之后是牌照牛？ / 2025.06.25 虽然我昨天预感今天A股要大涨，但是我没预料到今天的C位是大金融！ 今天早上国泰海通国际暴涨，赶紧找消息，原来是获得了虚拟资产交易牌照。 至此，国泰君安国际成为首家可提供全方位虚拟资产相关交易服务的香港中资券 商，服务覆盖提供虚拟资产交易服务、在虚拟资产交易服务过程中提供意见，以 及发行、分销包括场外衍生品在内的虚拟资产相关产品。 最后人家股价以198.39%涨幅收盘。 | 这真的很难上车，一直到收盘，有的人还是懵逼的状态。 | | --- | 除此之外，央行等五部委联合发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意 见》，文件特别提到要聚焦消费重点领域加大金融支持，结合消费场景和特点创 新金融产品，持续推动消费领域金融服务提质增效，直接利好大金融板块。 再就是群友提供的"命令"！哈哈哈 固态电池主要是美股的消息。固态电池技术公司QuantumScape盘后暴涨。 QuantumScape表示，其成功将Cobra隔膜工艺整合到标准电池生产线中，这项 技术将成为其高效率连续流隔膜生产系统的基础。 我问了问AI，这项技术进步代表什么？ AI回答我，Cobra工 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The market has shown continuous volume increase over two days and has effectively stabilized above 3400, indicating a bullish expectation [1] - The financial sector has been a significant driver of this upward movement, with notable gains in both small and large-cap stocks [1] - The index is expected to face another resistance level around 3500, but the current volume suggests a strong possibility of breaking through previous highs [1] Group 2: Internet Finance Sector - The internet finance sector experienced a significant surge, driven by positive news from the Hong Kong market, marking the first day of a potential rally [2] - There is a distinction between the performance of stablecoins and broader internet finance stocks, with the latter showing stronger gains [2] - The stablecoin segment appears to be entering a consolidation phase, contrasting with the robust performance of internet finance stocks [2] Group 3: Emerging Sectors - The new energy sector, particularly solid-state batteries, has shown characteristics of a leading sector, meeting criteria such as high performance, strong market presence, and positive sentiment [4] - The market is currently observing a divergence in performance within sectors, with a focus on identifying stocks that can lead a recovery during periods of sector rotation [5] - The autonomous vehicle sector has also seen significant volatility, with initial gains followed by a pullback, indicating potential for future recovery [5]

国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 国泰海通晨报 2025 年 06 月 25 日 [Table_Summary] 1、煤炭价格见底回升，预计随着全国气温的逐步攀升，再考虑到库存去化，预计未来 4 个月是 关键的基本面验证时点。 2、内容领先，流量优势和资本能力突出，打造全场景声音娱乐帝国。 3、6 月 21 日新加坡海外首店开业，品牌出海进程有望加速，打开出海成长空间。 4、重视航空长逻辑。5 月受益于需求增长与航司收益管理积极改善，国内票价同比首次转正，估 算航司实现行业性盈利。预计暑运供需乐观，盈利有望再创新高。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 行业跟踪报告：煤炭《煤价开始反弹，基本面底部确立》 2025-06-23 黄涛（分析师）021-38676666、王楠瑀（研究助理）021-38676666 投资建议：从板块推荐角度，依然推荐红利的核心中国神华、陕西煤业、中煤能源；继续 推荐兖矿能源、晋控煤业。 上周五（2025.6.20）港口煤炭价格上涨 1 元/吨，背后反映 ...

Market Overview - The market continues to rise with increased trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year and the ChiNext Index rising over 3% [1][3] - Total trading volume exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 200 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,900 stocks gaining [1][3] Factors Influencing Market Performance - The rebound in indices is attributed to three main factors: 1. Easing tensions in the Middle East led to a surge in Chinese assets, with the Chinese concept stock index rising over 3% and foreign capital expressing a preference for Chinese assets [2] 2. The Ministry of Finance announced plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and timely introduce incremental reserve policies based on changing circumstances [2] 3. Major financial sectors received positive news, with the central bank and six departments releasing 19 measures to build a financial service system, promoting long-term capital inflow into the market [2] Sector Performance - The financial sector, particularly brokerage firms, saw significant gains, with Guotai Junan International's stock price soaring over 100% after receiving approval to provide virtual asset trading services [2][4] - Solid-state battery stocks remained active, with Xiangtan Electric rising for five consecutive days, driven by positive developments in the sector [2] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 3,919 stocks rose, while 1,284 declined, with 81 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 7 hitting the limit down [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.03% at 3,455.97 points, with a trading volume of 620.2 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.72% to 10,393.72 points, with a trading volume of 976.3 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index increased by 3.11% to 2,128.39 points [3] Capital Flow - Main capital flows focused on sectors such as securities, ground weaponry, and military electronics, with notable net inflows into stocks like Dongfang Caifu, Zhongbing Hongjian, and Tianfeng Securities [4] Company News - Guotai Junan International announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary has been approved to provide virtual asset trading services, enhancing its business development [5] - The Iranian government has taken measures to ensure the continuity of its nuclear program amid military threats, indicating geopolitical factors that may influence market sentiment [6] Future Market Outlook - Huatai Securities suggests that while the Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3,400 points, its stability remains to be observed, with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [7] - Hua'an Securities indicates that while market liquidity supports stability, internal growth momentum is recovering slowly, which may limit rapid upward movement [8] - Dongfang Securities anticipates that the market will continue to rise in the short term, with key indices approaching their yearly highs and increased individual stock activity [9]

证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 25 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3420.57 | 1.15 | | 深证成指 | 10217.63 | 1.68 | | 创业板指 | 2064.13 | 2.30 | | 科创 50 | 978.71 | 1.79 | | 北证 50 | 1418.02 | 3.65 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 664120 | 515087 | 12.25 | 1.27 | | 深证成指 | 224989 | 183922 | 19.96 | 2.11 | | 创业板指 | 58078 | 45959 | 27.04 | 3.76 | | 科创 50 | 34155 | 22615 | 53.39 | 4.09 | | 北证 50 | 3123 | 2157 | 48.33 | 4.84 | ...

今天上午，A股延续反弹态势，大金融、国防军工板块领涨。 大金融方面，多元金融、证券、互联网保险等板块涨幅居前。东方财富（300059）上涨4.63%，成交额 为122.45亿元，再居A股第一，同时还是最近一段时间内，首只半日成交额过百亿元的个股。 港股券商板块上午大涨，龙头股国泰君安国际上涨68.55%，第一上海涨超25%。 消息面上，国泰君安国际获香港证监会批准，将现有证券交易牌照升级为可提供虚拟资产交易服务，以 及在提供虚拟资产交易服务的基础上提供意见。牌照升级后，客户将可在国泰君安国际平台直接交易加 密货币、稳定币等虚拟资产。国泰君安国际成为首家可提供全方位虚拟资产相关交易服务的香港中资券 商。 银行股盘中探底回升。中国银行、农业银行、工商银行、建设银行、江苏银行、杭州银行盘中股价集体 刷新历史新高。 国防军工板块方面，军工装备、军工电子等板块大涨。 截至上午收盘，上证指数上涨0.28%，深证成指上涨0.64%，创业板指上涨1.34%。 业绩线浮出水面 最近，中报业绩线开始崭露头角。 今天上午，泰凌微迎来"20CM"涨停。公司昨日晚间公告称，预计今年上半年实现营业收入5.03亿元左 右，同比增加37%左 ...

2025.06. 25 内需消费或有潜力，但资金更关注落地细节。流动性适度宽松格局不改，指数难有深度调整。宽货币 +稳财政结构，利好市场局部轮动，半导体、军工、固态电池等低位科技机会相对较多。 深圳高平聚能资本基金经理谢爱民认为，六月底开始，随着中报预告陆续披露，市场将迎来新的业绩 预期，估值有望随增长而提升。哪些行业、哪些领域能够超预期表现，将成为点燃市场情绪的关键。 推荐阅读 盘面上，军工股掀涨停潮；大金融概念走强，券商、金融科技方向领涨；固态电池、算力题材涨幅靠 前。油气、IP经济、白酒、医药板块调整。 | 板块名称 | 涨幅量 | 主力金额 | 板块名称 | 涨幅备 | 主力金额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 兵装重组概念 | +8.76% | +9.63 7. | 油气开采及服务 | -3.21% | -1.60 Z. | | 多元金融 | +4.93% | +13.01亿 | 可燃冰 | -1.78% | -1.08 Z | | 军工装备 | +4.83% | +34.26 7. | 影视院线 | -1.75% | -3.66 Z | | 国产 ...