Today in Bloomberg Deals: Activists are nearing a new record for Japan campaigns, plus Goldman nabs biggest EA payday and Mercedes F1’s value could reach $6 billion https://t.co/7Zdria5slO ...

Goldman Sachs' biggest-ever M&A payday may be the precursor to the bank’s best year for advisory work. https://t.co/8BmbtrLS43 ...

LIVE Dow Tops 48,000 With Shutdown End in Sight Last Updated: 1 hour ago Goldman Says U.S. Stocks Will Continue to Underperform the Rest of the World By Josh Schafer Despite a more than 16% rally in the S&P 500 this year, U.S. stocks have been an underperformer on a global scale. The MSCI global index is up more than 19% this year. London's FTSE 100 has returned 21%, while BlackRock's iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has added over 32%. Goldman Sachs expects this trend to continue over the next decade. Str ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs presents a bullish outlook for long-term equity investors, predicting solid returns for U.S. stocks over the next decade, with even stronger gains anticipated in emerging markets [1][11]. U.S. Market Outlook - The S&P 500 is projected to reach 9,000 by 2030 and 11,100 by 2035, with a 10-year annualized return forecast of 6.5%, driven by 6% annual earnings-per-share (EPS) growth and modest dividends of 1.4% [1][5]. - The real return estimate, adjusted for inflation, is expected to be 4% per year, placing it in the 33rd percentile of historical outcomes [3][4]. - The forecast indicates a range of potential returns from 3% to 10% over the next decade, highlighting uncertainty due to current market concentration [4][6]. Emerging Markets and Asia - Emerging markets are expected to deliver significantly higher returns, with an annualized return of 10.9% in local currency and 12.8% in USD over the next decade, nearly double that of the S&P 500 [5][8]. - Key drivers for this bullish outlook include 8.7% annual EPS growth and a 2.9% dividend yield, particularly in markets like India, China, and South Korea [6][10]. - India is forecasted to achieve the highest earnings growth at 12.6% annually, supported by strong GDP growth and favorable demographics [6][10]. Regional Insights - The dividend yield in MSCI Emerging Markets is projected to rise from 2.5% today to 3.2% by 2035, indicating increasing shareholder returns [7]. - Asia excluding Japan is expected to yield 10.3% annual returns, with 9% EPS growth and a 2.7% dividend yield, despite moderate valuation compression [7][10]. - Japan is anticipated to produce 8.2% annual returns, driven by 6% EPS growth and improving shareholder returns due to policy changes [7]. Currency and Global Trends - A declining U.S. dollar is expected to enhance the performance of non-U.S. equities, providing additional opportunities for globally diversified investors [9][10]. - The long-term impact of AI is viewed as a global phenomenon, with benefits extending beyond U.S. technology companies [9][10]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to diversify beyond the U.S. market, particularly towards emerging markets, to capitalize on higher nominal GDP growth and structural reforms [10][11].

Morgan Stanley has integrated Corastone, a transaction-processing platform backed by KKR & Co., into its wealth management technology stack, reported Bloomberg. This platform will digitise investor onboarding and automate validation steps that previously relied on manual paperwork. Corastone uses blockchain-based infrastructure to centralise documentation and standardise data exchange between distributors and fund administrators. With the integration, Morgan Stanley aims to speed up subscriptions and re ...

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies Financial Group Inc. and its trade finance arm, Point Bonita Capital, are under investigation for potential violations of federal securities laws related to their significant exposure to First Brands Group, which recently filed for bankruptcy [1][3][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is an investment banking and capital markets firm, with Point Bonita Capital serving as its trade finance division [3]. - Both Jefferies and Point Bonita were closely associated with First Brands Group, an auto parts supplier that declared bankruptcy in September 2025 [3]. Group 2: Financial Exposure - On October 8, 2025, Jefferies disclosed that it and Point Bonita had approximately $715 million in exposure to First Brands' receivables, accounting for about 25% of Point Bonita's trade finance portfolio [4]. - Following this announcement, Jefferies' stock price dropped by $4.66 per share, or approximately 8%, from $59.10 on October 7, 2025, to $54.44 on October 8, 2025 [4]. Group 3: Legal Investigation - Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP is investigating whether Jefferies and Point Bonita made materially false and misleading statements to investors regarding their exposure to First Brands [5]. - Investors are reportedly seeking redemptions from Point Bonita due to the financial fallout from First Brands' bankruptcy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investor Conference highlighted the importance of the bond repurchase market for domestic institutional investors, emphasizing its role as a liquidity management tool and a flexible investment strategy [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Repurchase Market - The bond repurchase market offers unique advantages in terms of collateral standards and central clearing models, facilitating easier access for investors [3]. - The arrangement of the exchange acting as a central counterparty enhances the trading experience in the repurchase market [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Many qualified domestic institutional investors are eagerly anticipating further opening measures in the market, indicating a strong willingness to engage in investment and trading once policies are implemented [3].

Core Insights - Houlihan Lokey has strengthened its European Financial Sponsors Coverage team with the appointment of Neil Price as Managing Director in London, aiming to expand client relationships in the U.K. market and grow the overall sponsor business across Europe [1][2]. Company Developments - Neil Price joins from Mayfair Equity Partners, where he was Head of Originations, and has nearly two decades of experience at Lloyds Banking Group in senior leadership roles [3]. - The addition of Price follows the recent hiring of Martin Rezaie as Managing Director in Germany, indicating Houlihan Lokey's ongoing growth and leadership in advising financial sponsors [2][5]. Team and Expertise - The Financial Sponsors Group at Houlihan Lokey consists of over 35 professionals, including 24 Managing Directors across eight countries, managing approximately 1,900 relationships with private equity firms, credit funds, family offices, and sovereign wealth funds [5]. - The firm is recognized as a leading advisor to alternative capital providers, with a strong focus on delivering exceptional outcomes for financial sponsors [5]. Strategic Positioning - Neil Price's extensive experience in origination, structuring, and execution, along with his established relationships in the private market community, is expected to enhance the capabilities of the Financial Sponsors Coverage team [4][5]. - The firm emphasizes its global reach, deep market insight, and collaborative approach as key factors in helping clients execute complex transactions and create lasting value [5].

China International Capital Corporation (CICC) forecasts that Hong Kong's initial public offering (IPO) market will remain vibrant through 2026, fuelled by listings from high-end manufacturing and technology firms, even as the bull run in the A-share market draws some issuers back to the mainland. "We believe the heat in Hong Kong's IPO market will continue next year, particularly in sectors aligned with national priorities such as robotics and advanced manufacturing," Shi Qi, deputy head of capital market ...

Financial Performance & Forecast - ORIX revised its FY26.3 net income forecast upward to 440 Billion JPY, a 15.8% increase from the previous forecast of 380 Billion JPY[6, 14] - The company increased its share buyback program to 150 Billion JPY, a 50% increase from the initial 100 Billion JPY program[6, 10] - H1 net income reached 271.1 Billion JPY, achieving 71% of the original full-year target and 62% of the revised forecast[13] - The company expects a full-year ROE in the 10% range, with H1 ROE hitting 12.7%, up 3.9 percentage points from the end of FY25.3[13, 21] Capital Recycling & Investment - Capital gains for H1 FY26.3 reached 157.1 Billion JPY, with expectations of further gains in H2[27] - The company launched its first domestic PE fund with a total size of 2.5 Billion USD[6] - ORIX sold stakes in Greenko, Ormat, ORIX Asset Management and Loan Services Corp, and Nissay Leasing[6] Segment Performance - Segment profits increased by 42% YoY to 409.4 Billion JPY[35] - Environment and Energy segment profits increased sharply by 117.3 Billion JPY due to the Greenko exit, which included a 95 Billion JPY gain on sale/valuation gains[34] - Insurance segment saw higher investment income, contributing to overall profit growth[35] Shareholder Returns - The company increased the full-year dividend forecast to 153.67 JPY per share, a 16.3% increase[6, 14] - The company anticipates a full-year total payout ratio of 73%[15]