Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Campbell's despite higher revenues, with the actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is expected on March 5, 2025, with an anticipated EPS of $0.73, reflecting an 8.8% decrease year-over-year, while revenues are projected to be $2.74 billion, an increase of 11.7% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analysts' assessments [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +3.16% for Campbell, suggesting recent bullish sentiment among analysts [10]. Zacks Rank - Despite the positive Earnings ESP, Campbell currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Campbell exceeded EPS expectations by 2.30%, having beaten consensus estimates in all of the last four quarters [12][13]. Market Reaction Factors - An earnings beat or miss alone may not dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [14]. Investment Considerations - While Campbell may not be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider additional factors before making investment decisions [16].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, net revenues were $4.4 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $536 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12% [5][34] - For the fiscal year 2024, net revenues were $17.9 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion, translating into an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.4% [8][34] - Adjusted EBITDA in the U.S. for Q4 was $371.6 million with adjusted EBITDA margins at 14.2% [35] - The U.S. business maintained momentum with net revenues of $10.63 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.56 billion, achieving a 14.7% margin [39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. Fresh portfolio improved, with Big Bird expanding margins due to strong commodity cutout values and operational excellence [6] - Prepared Foods sales grew due to increased interest in brand offerings in retail and food service [6][25] - In Europe, margins expanded through optimization of the manufacturing network, with stable sales in retail [7][40] - Mexico's adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $36.9 million, significantly up from $6.8 million last year, with an 11.8% adjusted EBITDA margin [41] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. chicken production is projected to increase by 2.5% compared to Q4 2023, with production growth driven by increased headcount [10] - The USDA indicated that overall protein availability is expected to grow by only 1.2%, with a significant decline in beef availability, supporting demand for chicken [12] - Fresh proteins in retail benefited as the cost of eating out increased, leading to strong consumer demand for chicken [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a diversified portfolio to capture market upside and meet consumer demand [5] - Continued investment in operational excellence and innovation is prioritized to drive profitable growth [29][45] - The company aims to expand its capacity in the U.S. Prepared Foods business to meet growth trajectories [45] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted strong demand for chicken in both retail and food service, driven by its affordability [54] - The company expects continued strong demand for chicken products, particularly during the summer [82] - Management acknowledged challenges in hatchability and livability but is optimistic about improving management practices over time [104] Other Important Information - The company reported $476 million in CapEx for the year, with plans to spend between $450 million and $500 million in 2025 [44] - The company has a strong liquidity position with approximately $3.1 billion in total cash and available credit [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market dynamics in Q4 and early Q1 - Management highlighted strong demand for chicken due to its affordability and menu penetration in food service, despite some production challenges [54][55] Question: Capital allocation and CapEx guidance - Management indicated that the CapEx guidance of $450 million to $500 million is focused on sustaining operations and smaller growth projects, with further discussions expected at the Investor Day [58][59] Question: U.S. margins and grain pricing - Management explained that their diversified portfolio allows them to capture upside while protecting against downside volatility, with operational excellence initiatives contributing to improved performance [62] Question: Mexico's market dynamics - Management expressed confidence in Mexico's growing economy and continued investment, noting that demand for chicken products remains strong [72][76] Question: Impact of weather disruptions - Management acknowledged that weather events can disrupt operations but emphasized their geographic diversification helps mitigate significant impacts [110]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Conagra reported organic net sales of $3.2 billion in Q2, reflecting a 30 basis point increase year-over-year, driven by volume growth in the domestic retail business [19] - Adjusted gross margin was 26.4%, and adjusted operating margin was 15.3%, down 52 and 57 basis points respectively compared to the prior year, but up 110 basis points from Q1 [20] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.70, a decrease of $0.01 from Q2 of the previous year [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Grocery and Snacks segment delivered net sales of $1.3 billion, representing 1.2% organic growth driven by increased volumes and favorable price mix [21] - Refrigerated and Frozen segment also reported $1.3 billion in net sales, flat compared to the prior year, with increased volumes offset by negative price mix [21] - International segment saw organic net sales decline by 0.7%, driven by a 2.4% volume decline, partially offset by a 1.7% increase in price mix [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Conagra's portfolio held or gained volume share in 67% of its categories in Q2, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of share gains [8] - In the frozen and snacks domains, 87% of the portfolio held or gained volume share in Q2 [9] - The company outperformed its closest peer by 24 percentage points in share performance [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to maintain its strategy focused on brand building and innovation, despite economic pressures and inflation [5][17] - Conagra aims to prioritize top-line momentum and consumer loyalty through continued investments in brand building [17] - Limited pricing actions will be implemented to offset rising cocoa and sugar prices while maintaining a disciplined approach to brand management [17][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that inflation and unfavorable foreign exchange rates will pressure profitability in the second half of the fiscal year [5][15] - The expectation for inflation relief has been pushed to fiscal 2026, with ongoing economic pressures shaping consumer purchasing decisions [5][15] - The company updated its guidance for fiscal 2025, expecting organic net sales growth near the midpoint of a range of down 1.5% to flat [18][29] Other Important Information - Conagra generated $754 million in net cash flows from operating activities in the first half of fiscal 2025, down from the prior year [26] - The company has repaid over $600 million of debt in the last twelve months, aiming for a long-term net leverage goal of three times by the end of fiscal 2026 [28][31] - The adjusted tax rate is expected to be approximately 23%, down from 23.5% based on year-to-date favorability [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for organic net sales growth? - The company now expects full-year organic net sales growth to be near the midpoint of the guidance range of minus 1.5% to flat growth versus fiscal 2024 [29] Question: How is the company addressing inflation and foreign exchange impacts? - Limited pricing actions will be taken to offset some inflation in cocoa and sugar, while the company remains committed to brand investments [17][29] Question: What is the outlook for free cash flow conversion? - The company expects full-year free cash flow conversion to be greater than 100%, with stronger performance anticipated in the second half of the year [28][31]

Texture Innovation Day November 14, 2024 Our forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made, and we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date of the statement as a result of new information or future events or developments. If we do update or correct one or more of these statements, investors and others should not conclude that we will make additional updates or corrections. For a further description ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total organic net sales down 3.5% in Q1, with an estimated 2.6% decline excluding the impact of the Hebrew National manufacturing disruption [26][28] - Adjusted operating margin declined 244 basis points year-over-year to 14.2% due to increased cost of goods sold inflation and higher merchandising investments [30][32] - Adjusted EPS was $0.53, down from $0.66 a year ago, primarily due to lower adjusted operating profit and unfavorable foreign exchange rates [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Grocery and Snacks segment delivered organic net sales of approximately $1.2 billion, a decline of 1.9% year-over-year, primarily from lower volumes [26] - Refrigerated and Frozen segment net sales were approximately $1.1 billion, down 5.7% from the prior year, significantly impacted by the Hebrew National disruption [27] - The International segment saw a 3% increase in organic net sales, driven by strong performance in global exports [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company maintained a strong share performance, with approximately 71% of the portfolio holding or gaining volume share, outperforming peers [11][12] - In the frozen and snack domains, 93% of brands held or gained volume share during the quarter, indicating effective consumer engagement strategies [12][19] - The overall promotional environment remains rational, with Conagra operating with lower promotional volume compared to peers [13][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a value over volume strategy, particularly in foodservice, to sustain margins at pre-COVID levels [6][20] - Active portfolio reshaping initiatives were resumed, including the acquisition of Fatty Smoked Meat Sticks and divestiture of the Indian joint venture [7][23] - The company aims to achieve $1 billion in cost savings by the end of fiscal 2025 through productivity initiatives [6][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving fiscal 2025 goals despite challenges in the consumer environment [5][24] - The company anticipates sequential volume recovery each quarter and expects adjusted operating margin improvement in the second half of the fiscal year [35] - Inflationary pressures are expected to be around 3.2% for total cost of goods sold, with specific increases in proteins and sweeteners [36] Other Important Information - The company generated $269 million in net cash flows from operating activities in Q1, with capital expenditures of $133 million and dividends paid of $167 million [33][34] - Net leverage at the end of the quarter was 3.6 times, with a target of approximately 3.2 times by year-end [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: What were the impacts of the Hebrew National disruption on sales? - The disruption resulted in a 47% decline in revenue for the Hebrew National brand, equating to a 60 basis point reduction in total volume and a 90 basis point reduction in total organic net sales [7][8] Question: How is the company addressing inflationary pressures? - The company expects inflation of approximately 3.2% for total cost of goods sold, with specific pressures in proteins and sweeteners, but does not anticipate material impacts on margins or adjusted EPS from recent M&A transactions [36][37]

Financial Performance - Organic net sales decreased by 2% compared to the previous year, reaching $3,024 million[11, 48] - Adjusted gross margin improved by 52 bps to 28.7%[11, 45] - Adjusted operating margin decreased by 49 bps to 16.4%[11, 45] - Adjusted EPS decreased by 9.2% to $0.69[11, 45] Cost Savings and Cash Flow - Year-to-date cost savings amounted to 4% of Total Cost of Goods Sold[10, 13] - Year-to-date free cash flow conversion was 124%[10, 59] - Net leverage ratio decreased from 3.65x to 3.44x[39, 57] Segment Performance - Grocery & Snacks net sales increased by 3.4%[48] - Refrigerated & Frozen net sales decreased by 8.1%[48] - International net sales increased by 1%[37, 48] - Foodservice net sales decreased by 1%[37, 48] Investments and Innovation - Increased advertising & promotion (A&P) investment by 6.5%, representing 2.8% of net sales[45] - Conagra's portfolio holding or gaining unit share increased by 12 percentage points to 51.9%[23] Updated Guidance - Organic net sales growth is projected to be between -1% and -2% for fiscal year 2024[41, 60] - Adjusted operating margin is expected to be approximately 15.8% for fiscal year 2024[41, 60] - Adjusted EPS is projected to be between $2.60 and $2.65 for fiscal year 2024[41, 60]