今日早参 2025 年 6 月 12 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：关税对美国 5 月 CPI 传导尚不显著 今日早参 | 2025 年 6 月 12 日 美国 5 月 CPI 全面弱于预期，关税影响不及预期。核心 CPI 环比从 4 月 0.24%降至 0.13%，低于彭博一致预期的 0.3%，核心 CPI 同比持平于 2.8%，低于预期的 2.9%；CPI 环比从 4 月的 0.22%降至 0.08%，亦低于预 期的 0.2%，同比小幅上行 0.1pp 至 2.4%，符合预期。5 月 CPI 显示，关税 影响尚不明显，背后可能是企业选择消耗库存/压缩利润以承担关税成本，也 可能是消费前置导致部分品类短期需求下滑从而拖累价格。市场对 CPI 数据 反应积极，截至北京时间 21:50，联储降息预期上行 6bp 至 48bp，2y、10y 美债收益率分别下行 8bp、6bp 至 3.96%、4.44%，美元指数下跌 0.2%至 98.8，美股开盘后上涨，但受到特朗普关税言论干扰涨幅收窄。 风险提示：关税 ...

其 他 报 告 2025年06月12日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3402 | 0.52 | 1.13 | | 深证成份指数 | 10246 | 0.83 | 1.42 | | 沪深300指数 | 3895 | 0.75 | 0.88 | | 创业板指数 | 2062 | 1.21 | 2.32 | | 上证国债指数 | 225 | 0.01 | 0.08 | | 上证基金指数 | 6920 | 0.09 | 0.17 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | 今日重点推荐： 【平安证券】基金深度报告*量化行业比较系列报告之二：基于资 本开支周期的行业比较与轮动策略*20250611 研究分析师 : 任书康 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060525050001 研究分析师 : 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060520070003 研究分析师 : 陈瑶 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060524120003 研究助理 : 高越 一般证券从业资格编号 : S1 ...

纽约股市三大股指6月11日下跌。截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌1.10点，收于42865.77点，跌幅接近于 零；标准普尔500种股票指数下跌16.57点，收于6022.24点，跌幅为0.27%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌99.11点，收于19615.88点，跌 幅为0.50%。 昨日A股 6月11日，市场全天震荡反弹，创业板指领涨，沪指再度站上3400点。截至收盘，沪指涨0.52%，深成指涨0.83%，创业板指涨 1.21%。沪深两市全天成交额1.26万亿元，较上个交易日缩量1599亿元。 板块方面，稀土永磁、游戏、汽车零部件、证券等板块涨幅居前，可控核聚变、生物疫苗、通信服务、饮料制造等板块跌幅居 前。 | 名称 | 最新点位 | 、涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3402.32 | +17.5(0.52%) | | 深证指数 | 10246 02 | +83.84(0.83%) | | 创业板指 | 2061.87 | +24.6(1.21%) | | | 日期:6月11日 制图:21投资通 | | 隔夜外盘 欧洲三大股指6月11日涨跌不一。截至当天收盘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry in China is addressing the long-standing issue of extended payment terms for suppliers, with several major car manufacturers committing to a maximum payment period of 60 days to enhance the efficiency of the supply chain and support small and medium-sized enterprises [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Developments - The 2025 Chongqing International Auto Show featured the launch of 93 new vehicles, highlighting the collaborative efforts needed among suppliers, automakers, and dealers for the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle industry [2]. - Major automotive companies, including China FAW, Dongfeng Motor, and BYD, have pledged to implement a supplier payment term not exceeding 60 days, aiming to improve cash flow for small and medium enterprises [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission have issued directives to stabilize the supply chain and promote high-quality development in the automotive sector [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Challenges - The accounts receivable turnover days in the automotive parts industry have been on the rise, indicating a growing challenge with long payment cycles for suppliers [3]. - Suppliers in various segments, such as automotive fasteners and electronic components, report facing payment cycles of 6 to 12 months, leading to significant financial strain [3]. - Analysts warn that unresolved long payment terms could hinder the efficiency of fund circulation within the supply chain, particularly affecting small suppliers who may struggle with cash flow and profit margins [3].

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、 耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 6月9日，国家统计局公布5月通胀数据，CPI同比-0.1%、前值-0.1%、预期-0.2%、环比-0.2%；PPI 同比-3.3%、前值-2.7%、预期-3.2%、环比-0.4%。 核心观点：消费需求改善令核心CPI企稳，但供给侧对通胀读数有较大压制。 特征一：核心商品PPI明显回弹，主因需求改善，且关税对价格的冲击尚未进一步加剧。 5月核心商品 PPI同比回升0.3pct至-1.4%，一是提振消费政策效果持续显现，部分消费品需求释放带动相关行业价格回 升；二是关税对价格的冲击趋于缓和，部分出口行业价格的回落幅度并未加大。具体行业看，制鞋业价 格上涨0.8%，计算机整机制造价格上涨0.2%，家用洗衣机、电视机制造、汽车整车制造价格降幅比上月 分别收窄1.6、1.4、0.6pct。 而5月PPI跌破-3%，更多反映大宗商品价格的拖累。 5月PPI同比较前月回落0.6pct至-3.3%。其中国际油 价下行拖累国内油价，测算油价拖累PPI环比-0.1%。同时地产、基建投资走弱，煤炭供应充足，钢、煤 价格也有回落，测算钢、煤 ...

盘面上，市场热点依旧快速轮动，超3400只个股上涨。稀土永磁概念持续强势，北矿科技、中科磁业等 涨停；大金融板块拉升，信达证券、兴业证券盘中均触及涨停；游戏股午后走强，粤传媒、元隆雅图、 电魂网络涨停。多只高位股下挫，均瑶健康、丽人丽妆、联化科技跌停。 6月11日，A股三大指数震荡攀升，沪指再度站上3400点。截至收盘，上证指数报3402.32点，涨 0.52%；深证成指报10246.02点，涨0.83%；创业板指报2061.87点，涨1.21%。全市场成交额为12866亿 元，较上个交易日缩量1646亿元。 昨日，被称为"牛市旗手"的券商股走势活跃，兴业证券、信达证券盘中均触及涨停。截至收盘，兴业证 券涨超9%，信达证券涨超6%，东兴证券、中国银河、指南针等涨幅居前。 汽车产业链走强 昨日晚间，兴业证券发布公告称，近日关注到有关公司将与华福证券进行合并的市场传闻，为避免误 导，现予以澄清说明。经核实，公司未得到任何来自政府部门、监管机构或公司股东有关合并的书面或 口头信息。控股股东不存在筹划合并事项或其他应披露而未披露的重大事项。 昨日，汽车产业链集体走强。截至收盘，美晨科技、欣锐科技以20%幅度涨停，迪生 ...

在现有的车企支付方式中，过半的汽车供应商会面对承兑汇票的付款方式。据了解，该付款模式为"账 期+承兑汇票"，承兑汇票通常6个月才能承兑，这也被供应商称为"承兑等待期"。在看到车企"付款账期 不超过60天"的承诺时，不少供应商最先提出的问题是"60天账期是否包含票据承兑时间"。然而，在17 家车企的承诺声明中，仅有北汽集团和上汽集团在宣布"60天账期"承诺的同时，承诺"全面取消商业承 兑汇票等增加供应商资金压力的结算方式"。 值得一提的是，承兑汇票分为银行承兑汇票和商业承兑汇票。其中，银行承兑汇票由银行作为承兑人， 依托银行信用进行结算，兑付风险较低，资金保障相对稳定；商业承兑汇票则由车企自行签发，其兑现 依赖于车企自身的信用和经营状况，存在一定的兑付风险。 据悉，比亚迪向供应商推广名为"迪链"的金融信息平台，以"迪链"凭证向供应商进行结算，通常兑付周 期为6个月。由于"迪链"凭证不能直接在二级供应商之间流通，只能等到期拿款，相当于延长了回款周 期。此外，很多车企都有类似的供应商金融平台。 中国汽车流通协会专家委员会成员李颜伟表示，这类承诺对比亚迪、吉利、长城等应付账款多、账期周 期长、供应链金融占比高的车企， ...

Group 1 - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism took place in London, with discussions led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, focusing on key economic issues and reaching a consensus on measures to implement the important agreements from the June 5 call between the two countries' leaders [1] - In May, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.6% and 11.2% [1] - Pop Mart's LABUBU series products are experiencing high demand, leading to tight factory capacity, despite the company's earlier capacity expansion efforts [1] - Fifteen major automotive manufacturers, including BYD, FAW Group, Geely, and Xiaomi, have committed to controlling supplier payment terms within 60 days, resulting in a significant rise in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets for automotive and parts sectors [1] Group 2 - North Mining Technology has seen a three-day stock increase, with its static and rolling P/E ratios exceeding the industry average [2] - Suzhou Longjie has also experienced a three-day stock increase, with its TTM P/E ratio above the industry median [2] - Nanjing Commercial Travel has confirmed that it has no undisclosed significant information [2] - Gongchuang Lawn has shown significant irrational stock price fluctuations over seven consecutive trading days [2]

Group 1 - The market showed strong performance today, with significant gains in sectors such as rare earths, Hong Kong brokerage firms, and Hong Kong automotive stocks [4][5][8] - The US-China talks are progressing positively, with the US focusing on rare earths and China on chips, leading to a surge in the rare earth sector, which saw an 18% increase today and over 110% this week [5][8] - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift towards reducing payment terms for suppliers to 60 days, down from an average of 150 days last year, which is expected to benefit automotive parts manufacturers in the short term [11][12] Group 2 - Tencent is a key player in the potential return of Hong Kong-listed companies to the A-share market, following new policies allowing companies from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [15][16][17] - The market capitalization of Tencent is significantly higher than that of the largest A-share company, indicating its dominance and the potential impact of its return on the A-share market [17] - The return of major tech companies to the A-share market could improve the overall structure of A-share indices, which currently have a high concentration of traditional industries and low growth potential [19][20]

A股三大指数今日集体上涨，截至收盘，沪指涨0.52%站上3400点，深成指涨0.83%，创业板指涨1.21%，北证50指数平收。全市场超3400只个股上涨。 分析人士认为，市场突然转向多头占优的格局，与多个利好因素释放有关。 消息面上，当地时间6月9日至10日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里 尔在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。双方进行了坦诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共 识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。 一连串利好来袭 券商板块出现异动 自上周以来，券商板块频频异动，背后有何原因？综合市场各方意见，主要有三方面因素。 今天上午，"牛市旗手"券商板块突然爆发，多股冲击涨停。截至收盘，兴业证券涨超9%，信达证券涨超6%，东兴证券、中国银河、广发证券等跟涨。 | | 证券 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1453.48 1.93% | | | | 涨幅榜 | 跌幅榜 | 盘□ | 新闻 | | 兴 ...