大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/7/1 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 15.29 | 15.09 | 0.20 | 山 西 | 15.05 | 14.84 | 0.21 | | 湖北（0） | 14.81 | 14.66 | 0.15 | 辽 宁 | 14.77 | 14.69 | 0.08 | | 安徽（300） | 15.29 | 15.15 | 0.14 | 吉 林 | 14.72 | 14.55 | 0.17 | | 湖南（100） | 15.09 | 14.79 | 0.30 | 黑龙江 | 14.55 | 1 ...

Market Focus - As of the week ending June 27, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 50.25 CNY per head, up from 19.40 CNY per head the previous week. In contrast, the profit from purchasing piglets was a loss of 131.71 CNY per head, improved from a loss of 186.79 CNY per head the prior week [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the delivery quality standards for live pig futures, modifying the average and individual weight ranges for delivery standards. The average weight range has been changed from [100, 120] kg to [110, 130] kg, and the individual weight range from [90, 140] kg to [90, 150] kg. Additionally, the pricing adjustments for alternative delivery items have been specified [1] Daily Market Data - The national average price for live pigs as of July 1, 2025, varies by province, with prices ranging from 13.86 CNY/kg in Xinjiang to 16.73 CNY/kg in Guangdong. The prices reflect a slight increase compared to the previous day, with most regions showing a stable outlook for the near future [4] Industry Review - Currently, pricing power in the pig market is concentrated among leading enterprises. The recent increase in pig prices is attributed to major producers actively reducing supply, along with speculative capital providing some support. Despite awareness of oversupply, the industry sentiment has shifted, leading to increased willingness to hold back supply to maintain prices [5]

证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2025-07-01 行业投资评级 | 收盘点位 | | 2671.67 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2838.04 | | 52 周最低 | | 2110.64 | 行业相对指数表现 -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | 《生猪偏弱震荡，政策调控影响或在明 年体现》 - 2025.06.24 农林牧渔行业报告 （2025.6.22-2025.6.29） 猪价触底反弹，降重缓慢推进 ⚫ 行情回顾：弱于大盘 农林牧渔（申万）行业指数涨 0.80%，在申万 31 个一级行业中涨 幅排名第 25 位。虽然农业调控政策频出，但仍跑输大盘，主要原因 是生猪 ...

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月1日 王泽辉 Z0019938 | 票阳 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 6月30日 | 6月27日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8240 | 8290 | -50 | -0.60% | | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7984 | 8002 | -18 | -0.22% | | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 256 | 288 | -32 | -11.11% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+250 | 09+250 | 0 | - | | | 仓单 | | 20582 | 18882 | 1700 | 9.00% | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | 6月30日 | 6月27日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8400 | 8500 | -100 | -1.18% | | | 期价 | P2509 | 8330 | 8376 | ...

Core Point - Mexico announced that the United States will reopen its border to allow the import of live cattle as part of cooperation on the issue of screw-worm disease [1] Group 1 - The reopening of the border signifies a collaborative effort between Mexico and the United States to address agricultural health concerns [1] - The import of live cattle is expected to have implications for the livestock industry in both countries [1]

近年来，固镇县以"畜牧业科技进步"为动力，以"牧业增效、农民增收"为核心，通过扶持龙头企业建设 产业联合体，全力推进重点项目建设，打造优势畜禽品种全产业链条，全县畜禽产品产值规模和竞争力 不断提高。 食品有限公司生产车间。固镇县委宣传部供图。 中新网合肥6月30日电 (尤靖文 凌义乐 杜少军)"当初建厂的时候，政府帮助合作社在农商银行融资700万 元，相当于在起跑的时候推了我们一把。"近日，在说起12年前的创业经历时，安徽省固镇县立业养殖 专业合作社负责人周功强仍历历在目。 在固镇县阳光禽业专业合作社鸡舍内，两层鸡笼上下叠放，每层鸡笼下方都安装了传输皮带，落在皮带 上的鸡粪会定时进行回收装车，做到鸡、粪分离。 "较之前的地面平养，立体式笼养的养殖模式可以提高近三分之一的养殖量。"阳光禽业专业合作社负责 人田静介绍，目前，合作社的20个鸡舍全部从地面平养，改造成了立体式笼养，这种养殖模式不仅可以 提高单位面积养殖量，而且通过传输皮带自动清粪，还可以改善鸡舍环境，提高肉鸡存活率，节省养殖 成本，每只鸡平均可提高1.5元利润。 在固镇经济开发区的蚌埠大成食品有限公司，一只鸡从宰杀到包装只需要2小时，每年有2000多 ...

农业行业2025年中期投资策略： 大畜牧养殖板块有望迎来景气共 振，新消费乘势而上 2025年6月30日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 * 01 徐菁、杜海路 ➢ 【牛肉】：我国的牛周期发生了深刻的变化。在过去十年的时间里，肉牛产能扩张速度远低于中国居民牛肉消费增速，因此我国的牛周期表现并不典型，价 格呈现长期趋势性增长的态势。但随着非洲猪瘟后肉类蛋白消费转移、公共卫生事件结束后复产复工带来消费增长，肉牛养殖的高景气周期导致下游激进扩 产，叠加进口量激增，2023年7月起我国肉牛养殖出现了少有的大面积亏损。同时由于肉牛养殖本身行业集中度和规模化水平较低，存在较为严重的信息不 对称，类似于非洲猪瘟前的生猪养殖行业，产能出清速度较快。一旦产能得到有效出清，供需错配和价格弹性极有可能超预期。 ➢ 【新消费】：【宠物】宠物消费市场规模稳步提升，宠物猫消费市场整体维持双位数增长，宠物数量和单宠消费金额均处于量价齐升增长阶段。国产品牌偏 好提升，头部品牌加速增长。国产品牌具备供应链成本价格优势，同等定位、配方产品更具性价比，同时头部品牌凭借本土线上渠道运营、以及双十一、 618大促优势加速崛起，通过品牌营 ...

Core Points - The article depicts the life of highland herders in Shangri-La, Yunnan, highlighting the challenges and changes they face in their traditional lifestyle [1][2][3] - It emphasizes the generational shift in work and lifestyle choices, with younger members opting for modern jobs or businesses instead of traditional herding [5][6] - The narrative illustrates the communal aspects of their culture, showcasing gatherings and shared activities among different ethnic groups [10] Group 1: Lifestyle and Challenges - The highland herders live in remote areas without modern amenities, leading to a lifestyle that is both beautiful and challenging [1][2] - The quality of sheep wool is crucial for income, but the market for livestock has been negatively impacted by imported meat [6][9] - There is a noticeable decline in traditional practices, such as wool processing, as fewer people engage in these activities [6][9] Group 2: Generational Changes - Younger generations, like Amu and Bangzhi, have explored opportunities in urban areas but are now returning to their hometowns with new business ideas [5][6] - The article highlights the contrast between the older generation's reliance on traditional herding and the younger generation's inclination towards modern entrepreneurship [5][6] Group 3: Community and Culture - The article describes communal activities, such as sheep shearing and evening gatherings around a campfire, which foster a sense of belonging among the herders [10] - Different ethnic groups, including the Tibetan, Naxi, and Pumi, come together to celebrate their shared culture through music and communal meals [10]

Supply Analysis - The official breeding sow inventory in April was 40.38 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with little monthly variation in the first half of the year [1] - In the first half of the year, piglet sales profits were good and feed costs were low, leading to a gradual increase in monthly piglet supply in the second quarter [1] - Breeding profits have declined to near breakeven, with the price difference for standard pigs expanding, prompting secondary fattening and group sales, resulting in a steady release of production capacity [1] Demand Analysis - Slaughter volumes in March and April significantly increased compared to the beginning of the year and the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of about 8% in officially designated slaughter volumes, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - The national reserve's rotation and storage in the first half of the year provided support for slaughter enterprises [1] - High temperatures in July and August may suppress demand, while the peak demand season in the fourth quarter and domestic macroeconomic recovery may support pig prices [1] Profit Analysis - Breeding profits reached a high point in the second quarter before declining, but profits remain positive [1] - Profit changes are influenced by rising corn prices and a downward shift in spot prices, with limited downward space for breeding profits despite potential corn price increases [1] Basis Analysis - The market supply is loose, with futures fluctuating around cost lines, and near-month contracts significantly discounting spot prices [1] - Supply pressure has shifted, causing spot prices to decline less than expected, with contracts for March and May driving futures prices up [1] - Long-term contract basis fluctuates between 800 and 1300, with strong market expectations and slow declines in spot prices [1] Investment Recommendations - Overall inventory increases, weight reduction expectations, and fluctuations in secondary fattening are expected to extend the downward cycle of live pigs [1] - Inventory increases in July and August may slow down, while the growth rate of inventory in September may accelerate, maintaining a loose supply pattern [1] - It is recommended to short the September and November contracts based on basis adjustments [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-06-30 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，五一假期后国内出栏积极性减弱生猪价格短期维持弱势，预计节后本周供给或 猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，五一假期结束居民整体消费意愿热情回落，压 制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征关税，提振市场信心。综合来看，预计 本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期回归震荡格局。关注月底集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态 变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价14560元/吨，2509合约基差555元/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 3. 库存：截至3月 ...