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如何看待参议院通过《美丽大法案》?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-07-03 15:22
关注、加星,第一时间接收推送! 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 削减支出方面,参议院加大医疗等福利支出削减力度、加快退出风电等新能源补贴。 医疗补助削减规模 从8000亿美元扩大到9300亿美元,或使1030万名低收入人群失去保障;食品券支出收紧;9月30日起取消 新能源购车抵免;为安抚农村票仓,新增250亿农村医院基金。 报告正文 2025年7月2日,《美丽大法案》在参议院以51比50的微弱优势获得通过。法案包括哪些内容?《美丽大 法案》的经济影响有多大? 一、《美丽大法案》立法进展?参议院投票通过,立法进入冲刺阶段 《美丽大法案》已通过参议院投票环节,立法进入冲刺阶段。 北京时间2025年7月2日,《美丽大法案》 在参议院以51比50的微弱优势获得通过。三名共和党参议员柯林斯、蒂利斯、保罗因医保支出、债务上 限等问题与47名民主党人共同投票反对,副总统万斯投出关键一票。 流程上,法案仍需众议院审核,法案内容存在进一步修改的可能。 后续立法流程为:众议院规则委员会 审议→辩论→众议院投票→总统签署生效。预计众议院最早于美国时间7月2日上午审议该法案。若众议 院否决参议院的修改,则可能需进一步谈 ...
最后通牒已下,马斯克对2.5亿人发誓,誓要让特朗普付出惨痛代价
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 12:16
Group 1: Legislative Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, proposed by Trump, plans to reduce taxes by $4 trillion over the next 10 years, significantly impacting the U.S. tax system [1][3] - The bill is expected to increase the federal government's debt by nearly $3.3 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating the already high debt levels [3][4] - The bill primarily benefits the wealthiest Americans while cutting healthcare and social welfare for low-income families, leading to a projected 4% income reduction for the poorest households [4][7] Group 2: Tesla's Position - Tesla, a key player in the electric vehicle market, has historically benefited from consumer tax credits, which are set to be eliminated under the new bill, potentially costing the company about $1.2 billion annually [3][4] - The cancellation of tax incentives could hinder consumer demand for electric vehicles, negatively affecting Tesla's sales performance and market position [7][9] Group 3: Political Dynamics - Musk's opposition to the bill has led to a public confrontation with Trump, who perceives Musk's criticism as a challenge to his political authority [6][9] - Trump's response includes insinuations that Musk's opposition is driven by self-interest due to his company's reliance on government subsidies [6][9] - The internal divisions within the Republican Party regarding the bill could impact their unity and voter support in upcoming elections [7][9] Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The increase in U.S. debt from the bill could lead to instability in global financial markets and affect the credibility of the U.S. dollar [9] - The hindrance of the U.S. renewable energy sector may slow down global energy transition efforts, providing opportunities and challenges for other countries in the renewable space [9]
出海速递 | 商务部:将加强对二手车出口工作指导/从3.5分钱到1000块:藏在深莞交界代工厂里的Labubu产业链真相
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-03 10:04
Group 1 - TikTok is enhancing its presence in Latin America, emphasizing the need for localized systems to overcome barriers in logistics, payments, regulations, and culture for sustainable growth in this market [2] - The Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms are competing to tap into the next trillion-dollar market by establishing localized capabilities [2] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is promoting the healthy and orderly development of the second-hand car export market, with a focus on quality and safety [9] - In the first five months of 2024, Shenzhen exported electric vehicles worth 11.18 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [9] - A new automotive logistics route has been established between China and the UAE, facilitating the export of nearly 4,000 domestic vehicles [9] Group 3 - Indonesia and Saudi Arabia signed cooperation agreements worth $27 billion, covering various sectors including clean energy and healthcare [10] - Alibaba Cloud plans to invest over 400 million yuan to support international partner ecosystem development, focusing on market activities and training [10] - Siemens announced that the U.S. has lifted export restrictions on chip design software to China, allowing full access for Chinese customers [10]
美国《外交事务》杂志:复兴工业,美国需要借鉴中国经验
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-03 08:48
【文/观察者网 刘程辉】"要像中国那样竞争,就应该如中国那般建设。"美国《外交事务》杂志7月1日 发文,剖析了中国制造业成功的秘诀。文章指出,中国在电气化、人工智能基础设施、产业集群、供应 链整合等方面成就显著,美国若想在竞争中取得类似中国的成果,就需要借鉴中国在组织和动员经济生 产方面的丰富经验,从而制定具有美国特色的产业政策。 文章称,长期以来,中美竞争被视为全球经济中两个角色相反的国家之间的较量:中国是世界主要生产 国,美国则是世界主要消费国。然而现在,两国都试图向对方的角色靠拢。问题在于:是美国能更快地 找到替代中国的产能,还是中国能更快地找到替代美国的消费需求。 《外交事务》提到,中国模式的一个典型代表是数十年如一日的电气化进程。 大约20年前,中国启动全国高铁网络建设计划,同时也不得不建设相应的电力基础设施来支持其运行。 后来,中国在电动汽车方面的投资进一步提升了电力需求,进而催生更多电网更新与充电站等基础设施 建设。 电动汽车产业的兴起,又反过来催生了一个完整的先进电气化供应链,包括电池、永磁体和储能系统。 在每一个发展阶段,中国不仅投资前沿技术,也持续建设电网基础设施。这一决策收获了丰厚回报。 ...
特斯拉高层人事突发“地震”,能否挽救下滑的销量?
Zhong Guo Qi Che Bao Wang· 2025-07-03 08:36
phone of the company of the late l 一向能够制造热点的特斯拉,近日迎来高层管理人员重大调整。 据外媒报道,特斯拉负责北美和欧洲业务的运营副总裁奥米德・阿夫沙尔(Omead Afshar)从公司离职后,马斯克亲自接手其业务,并任命特斯拉高级 副总裁朱晓彤负责特斯拉全球制造业务、以及朱晓彤之前负责的亚太地区的销售运营。 这次的高管人事变动,能否挽救特斯拉下滑的销量,成为热议的话题。 高管变动为哪般 拯救销量,无疑也是特斯拉的目标。 而此次升职的朱晓彤,堪称特斯拉的"救火队长",其在中国市场业绩突出:早期积极拓展充电网络,并主导了上海超级工厂的快速建设,成功解决了当 时的产能瓶颈。 而离职的阿夫沙尔曾是马斯克的亲密战友。他在2017年加入特斯拉,当时公司正准备全面量产Model 3。阿夫沙尔曾在社交平台发文称:"在Model 3的 地狱时刻,我几乎每天都和马斯克一起工作。这包括感恩节、圣诞节、新年前夜、他的生日等……" 去年10月份,阿夫沙尔晋升为特斯拉北美和欧洲销售及制造运营的负责人。当时,因电动汽车需求下滑,马斯克对欧美业务进行调整,任命阿夫沙尔负 责该业务。短短8个月后,阿夫 ...
外资机构上调中国经济增速,科技与消费成增长引擎
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-07-03 02:11
【环球网财经综合报道】随着稳增长政策密集落地并显效,中国经济在经历关税风波后迅速回稳,展现 出强大的韧性,多家外资机构纷纷上调了中国经济增长预期。 近期,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)、非制造业商务活动指数、中小企业发展指数、税收数据等先行指 标表明,中国经济顶住压力运行平稳,长期向好的基本面未变。6月份,制造业PMI为49.7%,比上月上 升0.2个百分点;非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%,比上月上升0.2个百分点;综合PMI产出指数为 50.7%,比上月上升0.3个百分点,企业生产经营活动总体扩张有所加快。 在外部贸易环境阶段性向好及国内稳增长政策加力背景下,摩根大通将2025年中国经济增速预测上调 0.7个百分点。摩根大通中国首席经济学家朱海斌指出,中国巨大的市场潜力备受国际市场关注,创新 领域信心加速恢复,国内结构性再平衡政策是稳住全年经济的关键。高盛预计今年上半年中国GDP增速 达5.2%,并将2025年全年GDP增速预测上调0.6个百分点,认为出口与部分制造业投资超预期,宏观经 济增长动能正从出口拉动向内需转换。德意志银行将2025年中国GDP增长预测上调0.2个百分点至 4.7%,摩根士丹利也上调 ...
北京市集中发布96项地方标准
Bei Jing Qing Nian Bao· 2025-07-03 01:10
本报讯(记者王薇)昨天,市市场监管局发布消息,本市近日发布96项地方标准,69项为首次制定,27 项为修订标准。其中,《自动驾驶地图数据交换及服务接口规范》填补了国内自动驾驶地图数据服务共 享标准空白;新修订的《电动汽车充电基础设施规划设计标准》优化了办公、商业、学校、医院等公共 建筑的配建需求;《室内型应急避难场所平急转换技术要求中小学校》助推本市室内应急避难资源"平 急两用",提升了城市安全韧性水平。 本市还对《电动汽车充电基础设施规划设计标准》进行了修订,标准落实"将100%建设充电基础设施或 电力线缆入固定车位纳入新建住宅配建要求",强化了新建住宅项目充电基础设施规划设计,提供了可 供选择的居住区充电设施配建方案,确保符合安全要求的停车位具备直接装表接电条件。另外,根据交 通出行场景特征的差异化,优化了办公、商业、学校、医院等公共建筑分类配建要求,更新了直接建设 充电设施的停车位比例,使充电特征与出行特征在时间和空间两个维度上互相匹配,促进停车资源和充 电设施的高效利用。 新修订的《住宅物业服务标准》创新设置了刚性指标不分级,柔性指标分三级的方式,业主可以根据实 际情况和需求选定相应的服务标准,实现服 ...
北京发布96项地方标准 69项为首次制定
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-07-03 00:33
Group 1 - Beijing has released 96 local standards, including 69 new and 27 revised, covering areas such as autonomous driving, information security, and electric vehicle charging [1][2] - The new standard for autonomous driving establishes basic requirements for map data exchange, filling a gap in domestic standards and facilitating efficient data sharing among map providers, automakers, and users [1] - The information security standard is the first local standard for the protection of important information infrastructure in Beijing, outlining enhanced security protection and assessment requirements [1] Group 2 - The revised standard for electric vehicle charging infrastructure emphasizes planning and design for new residential projects, ensuring that parking spaces meet safety requirements for direct electrical connections [2] - The standard also optimizes requirements for public buildings such as offices, commercial spaces, schools, and hospitals, updating the proportion of parking spaces that must have direct charging facilities [2] - It includes planning and design requirements for fast and ultra-fast charging stations [2]
日媒惊叹小米汽车工厂效率:1000台机器人,76秒一台车
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-03 00:25
Group 1 - Xiaomi is preparing to expand its electric vehicle production capacity by deploying 1,000 robots in its factory to meet high demand for its electric vehicles [1] - The only electric vehicle factory owned by Xiaomi is located in Beijing, covering an area of 720,000 square meters, which includes a sales store, a delivery center, and a testing track [2] - Xiaomi's factory utilizes integrated die-casting technology, allowing for the production of large body components in a single piece, significantly reducing production time [2] Group 2 - The factory's automation enables the completion of a new vehicle every 76 seconds, achieving a daily output of approximately 1,000 vehicles [5] - Despite the high production rate, the current delivery cycle for the Xiaomi SU7 is over 30 weeks, and the launch of the YU7 model has further challenged production capacity [5] - Xiaomi has invested approximately 640 million RMB to acquire 500,000 square meters of land for a third factory, indicating plans for further capacity expansion [7] Group 3 - The YU7 model is expected to become a blockbuster product, potentially rivaling Tesla's Model Y, with a record order volume of 200,000 units in just three minutes [7] - In less than nine months, the Xiaomi SU7 sold 256,000 units, surpassing the Tesla Model 3's sales of 200,000 units in China [7] - Xiaomi's founder, Lei Jun, stated that the YU7 will be positioned as a competitor to Tesla's models, with a slightly lower price point [7]
财经早报:新一批30亿美元QDII额度开闸 更多“反内卷”举措有望落地
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-07-03 00:08
Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes strengthening the A-share market's attractiveness and competitiveness through regulatory reforms and investor protection [2] - The macroeconomic resilience of China is recognized, with foreign assets becoming increasingly attractive amid global market fluctuations [3] - The real estate market shows a divergence in new and second-hand housing prices, with new homes experiencing a slight increase while second-hand homes continue to decline [4] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China introduces new regulations requiring cash transactions over 100,000 yuan for precious metals and gemstones to be reported, aiming to combat money laundering [5][6] - A new batch of Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) quotas has been released, allowing 82 institutions to share a total of 30.8 billion USD, indicating a growing demand for overseas investments [7] - Tesla reports a 13.5% year-on-year decline in global vehicle deliveries for the second consecutive quarter, raising concerns about its market performance [13] Group 3 - The steel and photovoltaic sectors are initiating capacity reduction measures in response to "involution" competition, with major companies announcing collective production cuts [10] - Insurance companies are increasingly investing in high-dividend assets through OCI accounts to stabilize profits and adapt to a low-interest-rate environment [11][17] - The electric vehicle market sees significant growth, with Foton Motor reporting a 150.96% increase in new energy vehicle sales in the first half of the year [24]