周期论剑｜下半年逻辑再梳理 20250608 摘要 市场对经济预期已处于低谷，与经济相关板块零回报，表明市场上升动 力非经济增长改善，经济压力不会实质性影响市场。 新旧经济资本开支分野显现，新兴经济结构资本开支增加，传统老经济 资本开支下降，投资者对长期悲观预期开始修正。 2025 年股市上涨动力来自贴现率降低，无风险利率和风险溢价下降， 长期国债利率走低，增量资金入市推动估值提升。 经济下行催生资产管理需求，实业资本退出再生产，年轻人寻求资金增 值，长期投资逻辑在当前市场结构中尤为重要。 中国风险溢价降低，得益于合理经济政策和资本市场制度性改革，吸引 实业和金融资本参与，推动资本结构改革。 2025 年中国证券市场前景看好，新兴科技是主线，周期金融或成黑马， 看好稳定垄断和具有成长性的生意。 钢铁行业需求侧触底，出口和制造业对冲地产下行，供给侧企业自主减 产，预计钢价短期下行后有望触底反弹。 Q&A 2025 年下半年中国股市的走势预期如何？ 2025 年下半年，上证指数大概率会挑战 924 点的高点，预计上证指数的高点 会在 3,600 点以上。同时，港股有望创出年内新高。在投资主线上，新兴科技 是主线， ...

Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion letter from Grandall Law Firm confirms that Anhui Wantuo Expressway Co., Ltd. can proceed with a non-public issuance of H shares to Anhui Transportation Holding Group (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. without the need to issue a tender offer, as it meets the relevant regulatory conditions [2][11][17]. Group 1: Investor Rights Changes - The legal opinion addresses the changes in investor rights related to the non-public issuance of shares and confirms that the issuance complies with the relevant laws and regulations [3][11]. - The opinion states that Anhui Wantuo Expressway has provided all necessary documentation to support the issuance and that the information is accurate and complete [3][5]. Group 2: Qualification of the Subscriber - Anhui Transportation Holding Group (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. is confirmed to have legal entity status and is in good standing, with a registered capital of USD 24.8 million [5][6]. - The subscriber has no disqualifying conditions that would prevent it from acquiring H shares of Anhui Wantuo Expressway, as verified by the legal firm [6][17]. Group 3: Approvals and Authorizations - The board of directors of Anhui Wantuo Expressway has approved the issuance of H shares and authorized the necessary actions to complete the transaction [7][8]. - The shareholders' meeting has also granted general authorization for the issuance of new shares, allowing the board to act based on market conditions [8][9]. Group 4: Issuance Details - The non-public issuance involves the subscription of 49,981,889 H shares, with a total payment of HKD 522,310,740.05 made by the subscriber [11][17]. - The issuance is structured to ensure that the direct and indirect shareholding of Anhui Transportation Holding Group does not exceed the regulatory threshold for requiring a tender offer [17].

6月6日，四川泸定至石棉高速公路(简称泸石高速)紫和1号隧道6日双幅贯通，标志着泸石高速泸定段45 公里主线工程实现贯通。 当日贯通的紫和1号隧道位于四川甘孜藏族自治州泸定县田坝乡甘草村，隧道右线全长2503米、左线全 长2466米，最大埋深达627米。隧道三分之一为稳定性极差的V级围岩，松软的块石土层、富含地下水 的冰碛层、破碎的岩体相互交织，地质灾害风险极高。 该隧道施工负责人介绍，项目团队采用"预注浆加固－短进尺掘进－弱爆破开挖－快速支护封闭"的循环 作业模式，用直径近1米的高压旋喷桩，像"打针"一样将水泥浆注入岩体，形成立体加固网络，使松软 岩体的"抗压能力"提升120%。 泸石高速全长96.511公里，由蜀道集团投资建设，概算总投资约174.08亿元，是四川甘孜藏族自治州第 二条高速公路。该项目连接通往甘孜涉藏地区的雅康高速和通往凉山彝区的雅西高速，是中国藏彝走廊 的重要组成部分。该项目桥隧比达86.5%，隧道占比达69%，平行接近多条区域性活动大断裂带，地震 基本烈度为Ⅷ度(8度)。 泸石高速王岗坪互通至大杉树枢纽互通33公里已于2024年12月31日通车试运营，泸石高速泸定段将于今 年再通45公 ...

Core Points - The Ningde-Gutian Expressway has officially opened, marking a significant step towards the full connectivity of the highway [1][3] - This expressway is a key project in Fujian Province's "14th Five-Year" transportation development plan, enhancing regional transportation infrastructure [1][3] - The newly opened section is approximately 29 kilometers long, reducing travel time between Ningde and Gutian by about 30 minutes [1][3] Infrastructure Development - The Ningde-Gutian Expressway is part of the G7021 national highway, which connects Ningde to Wuhan, and is crucial for improving transportation in the region [1][3] - The expressway features two toll stations and several tunnels, contributing to a more efficient transportation network [1][3] - The expressway enhances the economic development of the Dajia Industrial Concentration Area by improving logistics and reducing costs for major enterprises [3] Economic Impact - The opening of the expressway is expected to facilitate industrial growth in Ningde, particularly benefiting companies like CATL and SAIC Ningde [3] - Ningde's industrial output value increased by 12.7% year-on-year in the first four months of this year, with the lithium battery and new materials industries contributing significantly to this growth [5] - The development of rural roads in Ningde has also played a crucial role in promoting rural revitalization and economic development [6]

根据京哈高速绥中（冀辽界）至盘锦段改扩建工程第四阶段施工需要，经中铁五局集团有限公司京 哈改扩建第六合同段项目经理部申请，按照《中华人民共和国道路交通安全法》《中华人民共和国道路 交通安全法实施条例》及国务院《公路安全保护条例》的相关规定，拟对京哈高速公路K424+000至 K467+100段主线临时封闭，现将有关情况通告如下： 2025年6月14日20:00至15日06:00，共10小时（如遇下雨等特殊天气实施动态调整）。 三、建议走行路线 （一）拟由京哈高速（沈阳去往山海关方向）途经封闭路段的车辆，应提前在凌海收费站、锦州东 收费站驶出，绕行普通公路后，可在葫芦岛东收费站、葫芦岛收费站驶入京哈高速。 （二）拟由京哈高速（山海关去往沈阳方向）途经封闭路段的车辆，应提前在葫芦岛收费站、葫芦 岛东收费站驶出，绕行普通公路后，可在锦州收费站、锦州东收费站驶入京哈高速。 （三）葫芦岛南票地区拟去往京哈高速（山海关至沈阳方向）的车辆可就近在锦州收费站驶入京哈 高速；拟去往京哈高速（沈阳至山海关方向）的车辆可就近在葫芦岛东收费站驶入京哈高速。 （四）为减少京哈高速改扩建段联络线车辆的汇入，预防长距离交通拥堵，拟由丹锡高 ...

| 证券代码：600548 | 股票简称：深高速 | | | 公告编号：临 2025-062 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：188451 | 债券简称：21 | 深高 | 01 | | | 债券代码：185300 | 债券简称：22 | 深高 | 01 | | | 债券代码：240067 | 债券简称：G23 | 深高 | 1 | | | 债券代码：241018 | 债券简称：24 | 深高 | 01 | | | 债券代码：241019 | 债券简称：24 | 深高 | 02 | | | 债券代码：242050 | 债券简称：24 | 深高 | 03 | | | 债券代码：242539 | 债券简称：25 | 深高 | 01 | | | 债券代码：242780 | 债券简称：25 | 深高 | Y1 | | | 债券代码：242781 | 债券简称：25 | 深高 | Y2 | | | 债券代码：242972 | 债券简称：25 | 深高 | Y3 | | 债券代码：242973 债券简称：25 深高 Y4 深圳高速公路集团股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董 ...

福州机场第二高速公路项目意义非凡，其桥隧比高达91.4%，其中隧道总长6588米，共3座。本次贯通 的潭头隧道是项目重要的控制性工程之一，全长2830米，为小净距双向六车道隧道。单洞开挖宽度达 17.5米，左、右线最小净距约9.5米，仅为单洞开挖宽度的0.5倍。更为复杂的是，该隧道线路下穿浮岐 水库、蒲竹寺建筑群，施工风险高、难度大，对施工技术和安全管理提出了极高要求，自施工伊始便备 受各方关注。 福州机场第二高速公路的建设，将进一步优化区域骨干路网布局，完善福州长乐国际机场集疏运体系， 使机场与周边区域的联系更加紧密高效。同时，对于促进闽东北协同发展区交通基础设施互联互通，服 务地方经济社会发展，推进福州城市"东进南下、沿江向海"的发展战略，着力构建福州大都市圈等都具 有不可估量的重要作用。 来源：环球网 随着福州机场第二高速公路项目的稳步推进，福州正以更加开放的姿态、更加坚实的步伐，向着现代化 国际城市的目标迈进。这条高速公路将成为福州发展的新动脉，为城市的经济腾飞和社会进步注入源源 不断地动力。我们期待着项目早日竣工，为福州的明天增添更加绚丽的色彩！（林晗、洪族智、陈宇） 6月5日，一声清脆的爆破声响， ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Jinan Tunnel, part of the Jinan Ring Expressway expansion project, has officially entered a substantial construction phase, marking a significant milestone in highway infrastructure development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Jinan Tunnel is the first in China's expressway sector to adopt an in-situ expansion construction method, which has strong demonstration significance [1]. - The project spans 34.324 kilometers and features a dual eight-lane design with a speed limit of 120 kilometers per hour [4]. Group 2: Environmental Considerations - The project is located within an ecological protection red line area, and measures have been taken to minimize the impact on the surrounding environment by limiting construction to the tunnel entrance area [4]. - The tunnel will include a light shielding canopy at the entrance and an upgraded lighting system inside, significantly enhancing driving safety and comfort [4]. Group 3: Construction Methodology - The project team has opted for blasting construction techniques after a comprehensive geological assessment, despite the proximity of tunnel structures, which poses risks to existing rock and structures [4]. - A fully closed traffic organization method will be implemented during blasting to ensure safety, as opposed to a non-blasting method that would extend the construction period to 7 years, exceeding the approved 3-year timeline [4]. Group 4: Technological Integration - An integrated intelligent construction platform has been established to enhance construction efficiency and safety management, incorporating geological forecasting, monitoring, testing, and construction control [4].

基金代码基金简称近一年收益成立时间基金经理019624泉果嘉源三年持有期混合A9.742023年12月5日钱 思佳 019625泉果嘉源三年持有期混合C9.302023年12月5日钱思佳 018329泉果思源三年持有期混合 A7.832023年6月2日刚登峰 018330泉果思源三年持有期混合C7.402023年6月2日刚登峰 016709泉果旭源 三年持有期混合A6.902022年10月18日赵诣 016710泉果旭源三年持有期混合C6.492022年10月18日赵诣 附调研内容：1、2025年一季度公司利润上涨的原因？ 2025年一季度公司归母净利润为4.56亿元，同比 上涨16.61%。主要原因是公司通过持续的财务成本压降等降本增效手段，实现利润增长，其中，财务 费用同比下降26.79%。 2、公司的市值管理是否与考核挂钩吗？ 目前没有明确与考核挂钩，但公司近 年积极开展经营管理及市值管理工作，股价表现较优。 3、公司片区化管理的具体模式？ 公司加大改革 力度，目前已完成高速公路企业7合3的片区化整合、部分市场化企业7合1的专业化重组。 4、公司终止 收购湖北荆宜高速的原因？是否会重启？ 公司之前计划购 ...