Core Viewpoint - CarMax, Inc. has experienced a decline in share value, losing approximately 10% and nearing a 52-week low due to challenges related to higher prices impacting its performance [1] Company Performance - The quarterly earnings report is anticipated amidst the company's struggles with pricing pressures [1] Market Context - The company has been identified as a poor performer in the current market environment, reflecting broader challenges within the industry [1]

Core Insights - CarMax reported strong financial results for Q1 FY 2026, with total revenue of $7.55 billion, a 6% increase from the previous year, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.38, up 42% [2][4]. Financial Performance - Total revenue increased from $7.11 billion in Q1 FY 2025 to $7.55 billion in Q1 FY 2026, representing a 6% growth and beating expectations [2]. - Adjusted earnings per share rose from $0.97 to $1.38, marking a 42% increase and also exceeding expectations [2]. - Retail used vehicle unit sales grew by 9%, from 211,132 units to 230,210 units [2]. - The average price of used vehicles decreased slightly by 1.5%, from $26,526 to $26,120 [2]. Business Operations - Total vehicle unit sales increased nearly 6% year over year, driven by strong retail performance, with comparable store used unit sales up 8.1% [3]. - CarMax purchased 336,000 vehicles during the quarter, a 7% increase, and revenue from extended protection plans rose by 11% [3]. - The company emphasized effective expense management and stronger gross profit figures as key factors in its earnings growth [4]. Market Reaction - Following the positive financial report, CarMax shares surged nearly 11% in premarket trading, indicating strong investor confidence [6]. - The stock had been trading near two-year lows, with concerns about consumer sentiment, but the results suggested resilience in consumer purchasing behavior [7]. Strategic Initiatives - CarMax opened two new stand-alone centers for auctions and vehicle reconditioning in Phoenix and Dallas, aimed at supporting strong market conditions in those regions [8]. - The company accelerated its stock repurchase program, spending $200 million to buy back approximately 3 million shares, leaving $1.74 billion available for future repurchases, reflecting confidence in ongoing favorable industry conditions [9].

Group 1 - CarMax Inc (NYSE:KMX) reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and revenue, leading to a 3.2% increase in stock price to $66.41 [1] - The company experienced its largest increase in used vehicle sales since late 2021, with 230,000 vehicles sold in the past quarter [1] - Despite the positive earnings report, KMX is down 18.6% in 2025 and is struggling to recover from a 52-week low of $61.34 [1] Group 2 - The trading volume for KMX options has significantly increased, with 7,414 calls and 3,713 puts exchanged, which is 3.1 times the typical volume [2] - The June 62.50 put is the most popular contract expiring today, indicating heightened interest in options trading [2] - The 50-day call/put volume ratio for CarMax stock is 2.14, ranking higher than 92% of readings from the past year, suggesting bullish sentiment [2] Group 3 - Approximately 8.5% of KMX's available float is sold short, indicating potential for gains if short interest unwinds [3] - It would take shorts nearly four days to cover their positions, which could further support stock price increases [3]

Core Insights - CarMax reported $7.55 billion in revenue for the quarter ended May 2025, a year-over-year increase of 6.1% and an EPS of $1.38 compared to $0.97 a year ago, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.52 billion by 0.40% and delivering an EPS surprise of 16.95% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Comparable Store Used Vehicles Sales increased by 6.6%, matching the average estimate from seven analysts [4] - Gross Profit per Unit for used vehicles was $2,407, surpassing the estimated $2,376.50 from six analysts [4] - Revenue per vehicle retailed (ASP) for used vehicles was $26.12 thousand, below the estimated $26.75 thousand [4] - Gross Profit per Unit for wholesale vehicles was $1,047, slightly below the estimated $1,054.24 [4] - Revenue per vehicle retailed (ASP) for wholesale vehicles was $7.96 thousand, compared to the estimated $8.29 thousand [4] - Net sales for wholesale vehicles were $1.25 billion, below the estimated $1.31 billion, representing a year-over-year decrease of 0.3% [4] - Net sales for other categories reached $190.36 million, slightly above the estimated $189.46 million, with a year-over-year increase of 6.1% [4] - Net sales for used vehicles totaled $6.10 billion, exceeding the estimated $6.02 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.5% [4] - Third-party finance fees reported a net of -$0.70 million, better than the estimated -$1.33 million, showing a year-over-year change of -58.8% [4] - Extended protection plan revenues were $131.70 million, above the estimated $128.95 million, with a year-over-year increase of 10.9% [4] - Other sales and revenues totaled $22.90 million, below the estimated $25.17 million, representing a year-over-year decrease of 17.3% [4] - Advertising & subscription revenues reached $36.50 million, exceeding the estimated $34.15 million, with a year-over-year increase of 5.2% [4] Stock Performance - CarMax shares returned +1.8% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.5% change, with a current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) indicating potential performance in line with the broader market [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent data from CarMax KMX Auto Finance indicates a rise in loan delinquencies and net losses, raising concerns about credit quality in the used auto lender's portfolio [1][4]. Summary by Sections Loan Performance - After two months of stability, loan delinquency and loss rates have worsened, with May showing a sharper increase than typical seasonal trends [2][3]. - The portfolio-level delinquency rate increased by 36 basis points sequentially, exceeding the historical seasonal average of 18 basis points [7]. - Year-over-year, the portfolio-level delinquency rate rose by 16 basis points, contrasting with a trailing three-month trend of a decrease of 2 basis points [8]. Credit Quality Concerns - The cumulative net loss rate increased by 52 basis points year-over-year, consistent with a trailing three-month trend of 48 basis points [8]. - Newer securitizations are not performing better than older vintages, with the delinquency rate for the most recent prime securitization trending higher than older vintages [5][4]. Analyst Insights - Analyst Scott Devitt maintains an Outperform rating on CarMax with a price target of $90, despite the concerns raised by the recent data [1]. - Devitt projects first-quarter revenue of $7.67 billion and earnings per share of $1.23 [10]. - The company is expected to face increased loan loss provisions as it targets lower-tier borrowers to maintain interest margins [6][4]. Market Dynamics - Despite the challenges, the used auto market remains healthy, supported by strong gross profit margins for scaled retailers [9][10]. - CarMax has sustained robust sourcing methods and integrated credit capabilities, which have helped maintain performance amid macroeconomic uncertainties [10].

Financial Performance - CarMax is set to release its first-quarter financial results on June 20, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.17 per share, an increase from $0.97 per share in the same period last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $7.53 billion, compared to $7.11 billion a year earlier [1] - CarMax reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter on April 10 [1] Stock Performance - CarMax shares fell by 2.2%, closing at $64.43 on Tuesday [2] Analyst Ratings - Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt reiterated an Outperform rating with a price target of $90 [4] - RBC Capital analyst Steven Shemesh maintained an Outperform rating but reduced the price target from $103 to $80 [4] - JP Morgan analyst Rajat Gupta maintained an Underweight rating and lowered the price target from $72 to $65 [4] - Truist Securities analyst Scot Ciccarelli maintained a Hold rating and increased the price target from $72 to $88 [4] - Oppenheimer analyst Brian Nagel maintained an Outperform rating with a price target of $105 [4]

Core Viewpoint - CarMax (KMX) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.22 per share, a 25.8% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $7.56 billion, reflecting a 6.3% year-over-year growth [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upward by 0.9% over the past 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of their projections [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are linked to short-term stock price performance [3]. Revenue and Sales Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net sales - Wholesale vehicles' to reach $1.31 billion, a 4.7% increase from the prior year [5]. - 'Net sales - Other' is projected at $189.91 million, indicating a 5.8% year-over-year change [5]. - 'Net sales - Used vehicles' is expected to be $6.05 billion, reflecting a 6.6% increase year-over-year [5]. - The consensus for 'Other sales and revenues - Extended protection plan revenues' stands at $129.56 million, a 9.1% increase from the previous year [6]. Store and Unit Sales Estimates - Analysts project a total of 251 stores, up from 245 in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Unit sales - Total vehicles' are expected to reach 378,575, compared to 358,817 a year ago [9]. - 'Unit sales - Used vehicles' is estimated at 224,745, up from 211,132 in the previous year [9]. Profitability Metrics - 'Revenue per vehicle retailed (ASP) - Used vehicles' is forecasted to be $26.84 thousand, compared to $26.53 thousand last year [7]. - 'Gross Profit per Unit - Used vehicles gross profit' is expected to be $2,384.83, up from $2,347 last year [7]. - 'Gross Profit per Unit - Wholesale vehicles gross profit' is projected at $1,070.91, compared to $1,064 last year [8]. - 'Revenue per vehicle retailed (ASP) - Wholesale vehicles' is expected to be $8.29 thousand, compared to $8.09 thousand last year [10]. Market Performance - CarMax shares have decreased by 3.5% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of 1.7% [10]. - CarMax holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [11].

Group 1 - CarMax is set to announce its Q1 FY'26 earnings on June 20th, with expected revenue of approximately $7.56 billion, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase [2] - Adjusted earnings per share are anticipated to be around $1.19, compared to $0.97 in the same quarter last year [2] - The company has seen revenue growth driven by increased second-hand vehicle sales volume and expanded financing operations [2] Group 2 - CarMax's profitability has improved due to better cost management and digital innovations enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency [2] - The company has a market capitalization of $10 billion and reported a net income of $501 million over the past twelve months [2] - CarMax's total revenue for the last twelve months was $26 billion [2] Group 3 - Historical data shows that CarMax has had 20 recorded earnings data points over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns [4] - Positive one-day returns occurred about 40% of the time, increasing to 58% when considering the last three years [4] - The median of the positive returns is 5.9%, while the median of the negative returns is -9.4% [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net income of $17.9 million for the fiscal year 2025, a significant improvement of over $49 million from a net loss of $31.4 million in the prior year [12] - Gross margin for Q4 was 36.4%, up from 35.5% year-over-year, while the full fiscal year gross margin finished at 36.7%, a 200 basis point improvement [25][26] - Net charge-offs as a percentage of average finance receivables improved to 6.9% in Q4 from 7.3% in the prior year quarter, reflecting overall improvements in loss frequency and severity [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold 57,022 units for the full year, down just 1.7% year-over-year, with a 2.6% increase in unit sales volume in Q4 [23] - Interest income increased by 4.2% in Q4, contributing to incremental revenue growth despite a decrease in vehicle sales price [23] - The average time to repossession improved by 14% compared to the same period in the prior year, indicating better customer retention [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average selling price of vehicles decreased by $316 to $17,240 in Q4, yet the company managed to drive a 1.5% increase in revenue compared to the prior year's quarter [23] - The company experienced a $300 increase in procurement costs per unit due to market conditions, but this was deemed manageable [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing its collections infrastructure and has relaunched the "Pay Your Way" platform to provide more flexible payment options for customers [13][16] - A new seven by seven scorecard for underwriting has been implemented to improve risk segmentation and pricing accuracy, which is expected to enhance credit performance [17][20] - The company aims to diversify its underwriting and expand its asset procurement strategy to navigate tighter supply environments [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strategy and team, noting that the used car market remains dynamic and that they are well-positioned to navigate challenges [34] - The leadership team highlighted the importance of maintaining strong relationships with customers and adapting to their needs in a changing economic environment [36] - Management acknowledged the potential for growth among higher-rated customers while continuing to support their core subprime consumer base [72] Other Important Information - The company successfully closed a term securitization, issuing $216 million in asset-backed notes with a weighted average coupon of 6.27%, reflecting growing investor confidence [9] - SG&A expenses increased by 8.6% due to investments in technology and talent, but the company achieved a 6.1% increase in SG&A per customer, indicating improved cost efficiency [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of macroeconomic factors on business - Management noted that the speculative nature of the wholesale environment began affecting pricing towards the end of the quarter, but overall sales growth was sustainable [40][41] Question: Updates on operational upgrades and their impact on margins - Management reported a gross profit increase of 98 basis points for the quarter and emphasized ongoing optimization efforts to enhance margins [46] Question: Condition of low-end consumers - Management indicated that while there are persistent economic pressures, there have been no significant changes in the condition of low-end consumers, and demand remains strong [70][71] Question: Underwriting changes and market positioning - Management acknowledged the potential to move upmarket while still focusing on core subprime customers, indicating a strategic approach to capture a broader customer base [72][75] Question: Capital markets success and its implications - The new CFO highlighted the company's successful securitization efforts and the potential for lower interest rates as the market becomes more comfortable with the company's improving economics [81][82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net income of $17.9 million for the fiscal year 2025, a significant improvement of over $49 million from a net loss of $31.4 million in the previous year [11] - Gross margin for Q4 increased to 36.4%, up from 35.5% in the prior year, with a full-year gross margin of 36.7%, reflecting a 200 basis point improvement [24][25] - Net charge-offs as a percentage of average finance receivables improved to 6.9% in Q4 from 7.3% in the prior year [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold 57,022 units for the full year, a decrease of 1.7% year-over-year, but Q4 saw a 2.6% increase in unit sales volume [21] - Interest income increased by 4.2% in Q4, contributing to incremental revenue growth despite a decrease in vehicle sales price [21] - The average time to repossession improved by 14% compared to the same period in the prior year, indicating better customer retention [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average selling price of vehicles decreased by $316 to $17,240 in Q4, yet the company managed to drive a 1.5% increase in revenue compared to the prior year [21] - The company experienced a tighter supply environment, with procurement costs increasing by approximately $300 per unit due to tariffs [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing its collections infrastructure and has relaunched the "Pay Your Way" platform to provide more flexible payment options for customers [12][13] - A new seven by seven underwriting scorecard has been implemented to improve risk assessment and pricing strategies, which is expected to enhance credit performance [15][19] - The company aims to leverage its balance sheet and integrated sales and financing model to capture additional market share and drive future growth [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the dynamic used car market and emphasized the importance of diversifying underwriting to expand the asset base [34][35] - The leadership team acknowledged the ongoing challenges posed by a tighter supply environment but remains optimistic about the company's strategic initiatives and growth opportunities [36] Other Important Information - The company successfully closed a term securitization, issuing $216 million in asset-backed notes with a weighted average coupon of 6.27%, reflecting improved investor confidence [9] - SG&A expenses increased by 8.6% due to investments in technology and talent, but the company achieved a 6.1% increase in SG&A per customer, indicating improved cost efficiency [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of macroeconomic factors on business - Management noted that the speculative nature of the wholesale environment began affecting pricing towards the end of the quarter, but overall sales growth is seen as sustainable rather than a pull forward from tax season [40][41] Question: Updates on operational upgrades and partnerships - Management highlighted that gross profit margins have improved, and they are optimistic about the ongoing partnership with Cox Automotive to enhance operational efficiency [46][47] Question: Effects of risk-based pricing on P&L - The rollout of risk-based pricing is expected to improve returns on lower-ranked customers while also driving volume growth among higher-quality customers [53][54] Question: Condition of low-end consumers - Management indicated that while there are signs of strain on consumers, there are no significant cracks in the foundation yet, and the company remains a competitive option for financing [70][73] Question: Future direction of underwriting changes - Management is exploring opportunities to move upmarket while ensuring that core customers continue to have access to financing options [75][78] Question: Capital markets success and its impact - The company is focused on maturing its capital structure and has successfully securitized over $2 billion in receivables, which is expected to lower interest rates and fuel growth [82][84]