Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: IPCA Factor Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The IPCA factor model is designed to explain the returns of 46 option strategies, aiming to capture 80% of their returns while minimizing abnormal monthly returns to near zero[22] - **Model Construction Process**: The model integrates factors such as transaction costs and heterogeneous risk aversion to optimize derivative pricing. It also addresses the absence of reliable credit or liquidity premiums in pre-WWI corporate bond returns[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong explanatory power for option strategy returns and highlights the role of transaction costs in driving return volatility[22][25] 2. Model Name: Neural Functionally Generated Portfolios (NFGP) - **Model Construction Idea**: NFGP combines Transformer and diffusion models to enhance probabilistic time-series forecasting accuracy and improve decision reliability[35] - **Model Construction Process**: The model reduces forecasting errors by 42% compared to benchmarks and introduces dual uncertainty indicators to optimize portfolio decisions[35] - **Model Evaluation**: The model outperforms traditional approaches in terms of predictive accuracy and robustness in decision-making[35] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. IPCA Factor Model - **Explanatory Power**: 80% of option strategy returns explained[22] - **Abnormal Monthly Returns**: Approaching zero[22] 2. Neural Functionally Generated Portfolios (NFGP) - **Forecasting Error Reduction**: 42% compared to benchmarks[35] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: "Betting Against (Bad) Beta" (BABB) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The BABB factor improves the "Betting Against Beta" (BAB) strategy by managing transaction costs and isolating bad beta components[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is constructed using double sorting to isolate bad beta components. It achieves an annualized alpha exceeding 6%, independent of traditional sentiment indicators[15] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong performance in low-risk investment strategies, with significant alpha generation[15] 2. Factor Name: High-Speed Rail Network Centrality - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor captures the impact of high-speed rail network centrality on corporate bond spreads by improving the information environment and regional trust[25] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is derived from the centrality of high-speed rail networks, showing a significant reduction in corporate bond spreads, particularly for non-state-owned enterprises and non-central cities[25] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively highlights the role of infrastructure in reducing financing costs and improving capital allocation efficiency[25] 3. Factor Name: Residual-Based Structural Change Detection - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor robustly detects structural changes in factor models, accommodating over-specified factor numbers and error correlations[17] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor employs residual-based tests to identify smooth or abrupt structural changes in factor models, enhancing robustness in model evaluation[17] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is highly effective in detecting structural changes and improving the robustness of factor model evaluations[17] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. "Betting Against (Bad) Beta" (BABB) - **Annualized Alpha**: >6%[15] 2. High-Speed Rail Network Centrality - **Corporate Bond Spread Reduction**: Significant, especially for non-state-owned enterprises and non-central cities[25] 3. Residual-Based Structural Change Detection - **Robustness**: Effective in detecting both smooth and abrupt structural changes[17]

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing trend of Chinese companies expanding into Africa, particularly Nigeria, which is seen as a key market despite the increasing risks associated with social unrest and political instability [1][2]. Group 1: Economic and Trade Relations - Nigeria is identified as China's largest engineering contracting market in Africa, the second-largest export market, and a major investment destination, making it a focal point for Chinese enterprises looking to expand [1]. - The recent Nigeria-China bilateral trade and investment summit aimed to enhance trade and investment cooperation between the two nations [2]. Group 2: Risks and Challenges - Since 2025, Nigeria has recorded a total of 1,383 risk events, with an average of 223 events per month in the first half of the year, indicating a complex and severe security situation [3]. - The types of risk events include social security, political security, social unrest, and traffic safety, with social security events accounting for 46.90% and social unrest for 29.68% of the total [6]. - Violence and social unrest have escalated, with 2,266 deaths reported in the first half of 2025 due to violent conflicts, marking a 109% increase compared to the entire year of 2024 [11]. Group 3: Social and Political Dynamics - The rise in social unrest is attributed to ongoing terrorism, particularly from groups like Boko Haram and ISIS West Africa, which have caused significant casualties and displacement since 2009 [11]. - The Nigerian government is attempting to address violence through military reinforcement and legal reforms, but the effectiveness of these measures remains limited [12]. - Political competition and corruption are significant challenges, with the formation of a new political alliance indicating a major shift in Nigeria's political landscape [21][22].

本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 除息日） 一、回购股份的基本情况 证券代码：000680 证券简称：山推股份 公告编号：2025-048 山推工程机械股份有限公司 关于 2024 年度权益分派实施后调整股份回购价格上限的公告 本次权益分派实施后，实际参与分配的总股本为 1,494,601,562 股，实际现金分红 总额=实际参与分配的总股本*分配比例，即 89,676,093.72 元=1,494,601,562 股*0.06 元/股，每股现金红利=实际现金分红总额/总股本（含回购股份），即 0.0597783 元/股 =89,676,093.72 元/1,500,142,612 股。在本次利润分配方案不变的前提下，本次利润 分配后的除权除息价格=股权登记日收盘价－0.0597783 元/股。 本次权益分派股权登记日为 2025 年 7 月 14 日，除权除息日为 2025 年 7 月 15 日。 具体分派方案详见公司于 2025 年 7 月 8 日披露的《公司 2024 年度权益分派实施公告》 （公告编号：2025-047） 四、 ...

Group 1 - The construction industry has faced intense competition leading to low profit margins and unsustainable practices, prompting 33 major companies to jointly issue an initiative against "involution" [1][2] - The initiative emphasizes the need for the industry to focus on core responsibilities, enhance competitiveness, and resist illegal practices such as subcontracting and false bidding [2][3] - The construction sector has historically prioritized scale over quality, resulting in high output but low profitability, with issues like low-price bidding and excessive debt prevalent [3][6] Group 2 - The cement industry is responding to the "anti-involution" call by pushing for alignment between registered and actual production capacities, aiming for structural optimization and transformation [5][6] - Major waterproof material companies have announced price increases ranging from 1% to 13% to address rising costs and thin profit margins, indicating a shift towards better profitability [6][7] - The recent "anti-involution" movement has led to a rally in the A-share construction and materials sectors, with expectations of profit recovery for companies involved [6][7]

资料显示，徐淮阜高速作为连接徐州、淮北与阜阳的重要交通干线，由安徽建工投资建设运营的淮北 段、宿州段起于皖苏省界圣泉镇，串联萧县五大乡镇，由孙圩子互通跨连霍高速后，在洪碱河处无缝衔 接淮北，经相山区、濉溪县最终在临涣枢纽顺接盐洛高速，全长72.07公里。两段道路首尾相连，形成 贯通皖北、直达苏皖边界的"黄金通道"。 公司表示，自2023年2月开工建设以来，安徽建工充分发挥全产业链优势，推动全流程高效协同、全要 素深度融合。全体参建者直面古运河遗址保护、矿区复杂地质等多重困难和挑战，累计完成路基填挖土 方超千万方，桥梁飞架山河与铁路之上，6座钢箱梁桥顶推施工成功攻克"不断交通、不限车速"等行业 难题，最终提前10个月完成了徐淮阜高速淮北段、宿州段的建设，再次刷新"建工速度"。 安徽建工表示，这条提前通车的高速路作为淮河生态经济带的重要纽带，它将大幅压缩淮北与徐州、阜 阳的时空距离，推动皖北地区加速融入长三角一体化发展格局，促进区域人流、物流、资金流互联互 通，为皖北振兴和长三角高质量发展注入强劲动能。 7月10日，安徽建工(600502)投资建设运营的首条高速公路——徐淮阜高速淮北段、宿州段正式通车， 较计划工 ...

Group 1 - The core business of the company includes design consulting, EPC engineering contracting, construction, and equipment manufacturing, leveraging its leading technology, talent, qualifications, and international advantages in the non-ferrous metal industry [2] - The company has participated in over 500 projects that have received prestigious awards such as the China Construction Engineering Luban Award and the Civil Engineering Zhan Tianyou Award, establishing itself as a key player in the industry [2] - As of the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.804 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.63%, and a net profit of 65.797 million yuan, down 36.71% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 8.91% [2] Group 2 - The company's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 77.38, significantly higher than the industry average of 14.02 and the industry median of 20.32, ranking it 59th in the engineering construction sector [1][3] - The total market capitalization of the company is 14.162 billion yuan, reflecting its position within the industry [1][3] - As of the first quarter of 2025, six institutions held shares in the company, with a total holding of 2.2801551 billion shares valued at 10.398 billion yuan [1]

★ 宏观动态 ★ 中国和马来西亚互免签证协定即将生效 据央视新闻，《中华人民共和国政府和马来西亚政府关于互免持公务普通护照和普通护照人员签证的协定》将 于2025年7月17日生效。根据协定，持有效的中国公务普通护照、普通护照和马来西亚普通护照人员，以休闲 旅游、探亲访友、商务活动、交流访问、私人事务、医疗、国际运输（机组人员）为目的，在缔约另一方入 境、出境或者过境，停留不超过30日，且每180日累计停留不超过90日，可免办签证。如需在缔约另一方境内 单次停留逾30日或者在缔约另一方境内定居，或从事工作、学习、新闻报道等须经缔约另一方主管部门事先批 准的活动，应当在入境缔约另一方前申请相应签证。 嫦娥七号明年前后将发射 据央视新闻，月球背面样品返回一年来，我国科学家围绕这些样品已经取得丰硕的科学研究成果，彰显了我国 行星科学研究的综合实力，也为下一阶段开展月球的形成和演化研究工作奠定了基础。据介绍，2026年前后， 我国将发射嫦娥七号月球探测器，同样会在月球南极—艾特肯盆地开展环境与资源勘查，特别是要寻找水冰等 物质，为将来月球基地的建设打下基础。 商务部回应冯德莱恩涉华言论 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩近日发表演 ...

最新一期业绩显示，2025年一季报，公司实现营业收入101.47亿元，同比-1.37%；净利润6.63亿元，同 比4.19%，销售毛利率16.97%。 序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)10中材国际7.857.921.08236.28亿行业平均 14.0217.321.24210.84亿行业中值20.3221.341.4859.76亿1山东路桥4.074.080.6394.70亿2陕建股份 5.234.990.59147.72亿3中国铁建5.275.060.421124.39亿4中国中铁5.415.130.461430.03亿5中国建筑 5.465.470.542524.68亿6安徽建工6.226.230.7583.77亿7中国交建6.526.330.511481.35亿8隧道股份 7.276.980.64198.39亿9中国电建7.427.200.61864.75亿11中国化学8.068.390.75477.09亿12浙江交科 8.188.400.71110.03亿 来源：金融界 从行业市盈率排名来看，公司所处的工程建设行业市盈率平均14.02倍，行业中值20.32倍，中材国际排 名第2 ...

资料显示，爱旭股份成立于1996年8月，主营业务是研发、生产、销售太阳能电池和组件。 爱旭股份：预计上半年预亏1.7亿–2.8亿元 7月10日晚，爱旭股份（600732）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计上半年实现归属于母公司所有 者的净亏损1.7亿元至2.8亿元，预计实现扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损4.1亿元至5.2亿元。 所属行业：电力设备–光伏设备–光伏电池组件 长城军工：预计上半年预亏2500万–2950万元 7月10日晚，长城军工（601606）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计上半年实现归属于上市公司股 东的净亏损2500万元至2950万元，预计实现扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损3500万元至4100万元。 资料显示，长城军工成立于2000年11月，主营业务是军品业务与民品业务。 所属行业：国防军工–地面兵装Ⅱ–地面兵装Ⅲ 长源东谷：预计上半年净利润预增62.65%-88.88% 7月10日晚，长源东谷（603950）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计上半年实现归属于母公司所有 者的净利润1.55亿元至1.8亿元，同比增长62.65%-88.88%；预计实现扣除非经常性损益后的净利润1.5亿 ...

交建股份（603815）公告，公司与天津铁投资产管理有限公司达成协议，将持有的天津轨道交通产业基 金合伙企业(有限合伙)1%的合伙企业份额(对应认缴出资额人民币5000万元，实缴出资额人民币5000万 元)及基于该合伙企业份额附带的所有权利和权益转让给天津铁投，转让价款为人民币5000万元。交易 完成后，公司将不再持有天津轨道基金份额。本次交易不会对公司经营业务产生实质性影响。 ...