2025.07. 09 本文字数：2849，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 即使美国总统特朗普的贸易政策反复无常、扰动全球市场，但全球股市今年仍表现强劲。 截至7月4日，MSCI全球指数上涨了约10%，创历史高位。该指数衡量全球来自发达经济体和新兴经济体 的2500多只股票的整体表现。 华侨银行投资策略董事总经理蒙农（Vasu Menon）表示，尽管今年上半年出现了一系列逆风因素，但全 球股市显示出韧性。"由于各种不确定性因素仍存，预计下半年股票波动性仍将存在。但同时，预计全球 股市在下半年仍将表现良好，尤其是如果对贸易、关税和通胀的担忧在未来几个月有所缓解的话。" 欧洲复兴 根据晨星（Morningstar）的数据，欧洲股市成为2025年的"意外之星"，希腊、波兰、捷克共和国、匈 牙利股指今年迄今的涨幅，居全球前四。西班牙、葡萄牙、奥地利和意大利股指涨幅也居前十，欧洲股指 在前十位中占据八位，排名最后的意大利涨幅也达到37.71%。相比之下，美股虽然近期又创新高，但在 全球投资者对美元资产整体信心动摇下，美股上半年涨幅仅为7.36%。 晨星EMEA首席股票市场策略师弗尔德（Michael F ...

Group 1 - Japan's actual GDP is estimated to decrease by 0.2% with a 10% reciprocal tariff and by 0.4% if the tariff increases to 25% [2][5] - The export value of Japan in 2024 is projected to be 107.0879 trillion yen, with exports to the US amounting to 21.2947 trillion yen, representing about 20% of total exports [2] - The total export value of aircraft parts, including those exported to the US, is 307.9 billion yen, with 76.5% of this amount going to the US [4] Group 2 - The export ratio of construction and mining machinery to the US exceeds 50%, with Komatsu's sales in North America accounting for 30% of its total sales [5] - The machine tool and metal processing machinery export ratio to the US is 23.4%, with US orders making up about 20% of total orders for Japanese manufacturers [5] - The Japan Economic Federation expressed concerns that the new tariff rates would have a significant impact on Japanese companies' investment strategies and profitability [5] Group 3 - The Imperial Credit Corporation predicted a 5% increase in domestic bankruptcies in Japan for the fiscal year 2025, reaching 10,574 cases, if tariffs rise to 24% [6] - The chief researcher at the Imperial Credit Corporation indicated that if tariffs increase to 25%, the number of bankrupt companies is likely to rise further [6]

Global Market Performance - Despite the unpredictable trade policies of the Trump administration, global stock markets have shown resilience, with the MSCI global index rising approximately 10% as of July 4, reaching a historical high [1] - The second half of the year is expected to see continued volatility in stock markets, but a positive performance is anticipated if concerns over trade, tariffs, and inflation ease [1] European Market Highlights - European stock markets have emerged as "unexpected stars" for 2025, with Greece, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary leading global gains [3] - Greece's stock index has surged nearly 60% this year, driven by economic recovery, banking reforms, and a strong tourism sector [3] - The overall positive performance in Europe is attributed to the "sell America" movement, improved economic conditions, and undervaluation of European stocks [3] Investment Strategies in Europe - European defense stocks are expected to provide substantial returns, supported by increased investment and defense spending commitments from Germany [4] - The European Central Bank has more room to cut interest rates compared to the Federal Reserve, which may further support economic growth [4] - The strengthening euro is anticipated to enhance economic momentum in Europe, making it an increasingly attractive investment destination [5] Asia-Pacific Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock indices have shown mixed performance, with South Korea's index ranking first in the region, up over 30% this year [5] - Thailand and Indonesia have underperformed, with declines of 13.56% and 4.74% respectively, while China and Japan recorded gains of 17.72% and 11.24% [5] - The outlook for Asian markets remains optimistic, with expectations of stable economic conditions and attractive valuations compared to developed markets [7] Sector Focus in Asia - Key sectors expected to drive growth in Asia include artificial intelligence, innovation, digital infrastructure, and local consumption [7] - The Chinese and South Korean markets are poised to benefit from advancements in technology and the expansion of the AI industry [7] - The Indian market is expected to see growth driven by manufacturing and consumption, supported by a young population [7] Underperforming Markets - Thailand's stock market has faced significant challenges due to political instability and economic difficulties, leading to a decline of over 13% [8] - Turkey's market has also struggled, with a drop of 7.59% attributed to high inflation and a lack of investor confidence [9] - India's stock market has underperformed with a gain of only 5.75%, but future earnings recovery is anticipated [9]

Group 1 - The A-share market for electronic rearview mirrors, 3D cameras, and LiDAR related to assisted driving has seen a short-term rise, with Lianchuang Electronics increasing by over 7% [1] - Other stocks such as Qutian Micro, Yutong Optics, and Tongda Electric have also experienced gains [1] - BYD has announced comprehensive coverage for all users of its "Tianshen Eye" vehicles regarding safety and losses in smart parking scenarios [1]

智通财经7月9日电，午后比亚迪智驾概念异动，联创电子直线拉升逼近涨停，宇瞳光学、通达电气、亚 太股份、豪恩汽电、德赛西威等跟涨。消息面上，7月9日，比亚迪官微宣布为智能泊车兜底，在全球率 先实现媲美L4级的智能泊车，并承诺：在中国市场，比亚迪对所有天神之眼车辆用户在智能泊车场景 下的安全及损失全面兜底。 比亚迪智驾概念午后异动 联创电子逼近涨停 ...

越南贸易部副部长：服装、电子产品和汽车零部件制造商面临美国关税。 ...

7月8日，华证指数发布了2025年A股上市公司各一级行业ESG绩效TOP20，涵盖工业、公共事业、可选 消费、金融等11个行业。其中，在2025年A股上市公司可选消费行业ESG绩效TOP20中，家电业仅海尔 智家（600690）一家上榜。 | 排名 | 股票代码 | 公司简称 | 华证ESG评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 603195.SH | 公牛集团 | AAA | | 2 | 300428.SZ | 立中集团 | AAA | | 3 | 600660.SH | 福耀玻璃 | AAA | | 4 | 002472.SZ | 双环传动 | AA | | 5 | 002050.SZ | 三花智控 | AA | | б | 605088.5H | 冠盛股份 | AA | | 7 | 603013.SH | 亚普股份 | AA | | 8 | 605117.SH | 德业股份 | AA | | 9 | 601163.SH | 三角轮胎 | AA | | 10 | 603197.SH | 保隆科技 | AA | | 11 | 600690.5H | 海尔智家 | AA | ...

有估算显示，10%的对等关税和汽车等行业关税将使日本实际GDP被拉低0.2%。如果对等关税提高至 25%，GDP的下行影响将扩大至0.4%。对美出口比例较高的飞机零部件和工程机械将受到巨大打击…… 如果美国对日本征收的税率提高到25%，对美出口比例较高的飞机零部件和工程机械将受到 巨大打击。日本政府准备继续推进谈判，要求重新调整税率。 机床等金属加工机械的对美比率为23.4%。日本工作机械工业会(简称:日工会)的统计显示， 在日本厂商的订单总额中，美国订单约占2成。DMG森精机和牧野铣床制作所等大型企业提 出将关税成本作为附加费转嫁给客户的方针。 对日本来说，美国是最大的出口对象国，因此加征关税将给广泛的行业带来压力。经济同友 会的代表干事新浪刚史就新税率表示，"并非可以自行消化的水平"，表达了危机感。 日本最大经济团体"经团连"的会长筒井义信在7月7日的记者会上指出，"如果适用加征关税 率，将产生非常巨大的影响"。他还表示"担心今后日本企业投资战略的可预见性和盈利性受 到广泛影响"。 日本财务省的贸易统计显示，2024年日本的出口额为107.0879万亿日元。对美国出口额为 21.2947万亿日元，占整体的 ...

编号：20250708 | 2025年半年度公司预期实现归属于上市公司股东的 | | --- | | 净利润约 3000 万 元 到 4500 万 元 ， 同 比 增 长 | | 44.06%-116.08%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润预计在 | | 2500万元到3750万元，同比增长58.09%-137.14%。 | | 二、问答环节 | | Q1：公司上半年业绩增长的主要来源是什么？ | | A：今年上半年传统车轮和阿凡达低碳车轮两块业务 | | 都呈正向增长，其中主要增量来源于阿凡达低碳车轮产 | | 品。随着阿凡达新建产能的释放与阿凡达新一代产品的陆 | | 续投产，下半年公司业绩预计会有更大增量。阿凡达低碳 | | 车轮产品在公司主业的产销占比持续提升，产品结构不断 | | 优化，为公司利润和利润率的提升提供了长效动力。 | | Q2：公司铌微合金材料性能的优势？ | | A：公司自主研发的铌微合金材料具有强度高、韧性 | | 好、易成形等特点，也具有良好的耐腐蚀性和焊接性能， | | 并且铌微合金原材料成本远低于铝合金和钛合金，能同时 | | 满足产品的轻量化与降本需求。 | | 在阿凡达工艺处 ...

华域汽车 20250708 如何评价华域汽车在过去五年的表现及其未来的投资价值？ 过去五年，华域汽车的收入和净利润均保持了相对稳定的增长。具体来看， 2020 年公司的收入为 1,400 亿元，到 2024 年增长至 1,700 亿元左右；净利 润从 2020 年的 50 多亿元增长到 2023 年的 72 亿元，尽管 2024 年有所回落 至 67 亿元，但整体仍处于较高水平。这种稳定表现主要得益于公司实施的中 心化策略，即减少对上汽集团的依赖，积极开拓外部客户。数据显示，外部客 户占比从 20 年前的 45%提升至 62.2%。此外，公司还成功吸引了特斯拉、比 亚迪、吉利、奇瑞等新能源汽车品牌作为客户。 从今年（2025 年）上半年的 数据来看，除特斯拉外，其余前十大客户如上汽集团、比亚迪、吉利和奇瑞等 均实现了显著增长，总体同比增长 14%。预计全年维持 10%左右的增长是没 有问题的。 此外，上汽集团自 2020 年以来销量持续下滑，从 700 万辆下降到 2024 年的 400 万辆，但在新的领导班子带领下，公司在电动化和智能化方面 加快了步伐，并且库存大幅减少，这为今年（2025 年）的反弹奠定基 ...