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反内卷时代下的周期投资
远川研究所· 2025-07-10 12:04
以下文章来源于和谐汇一资产管理 ,作者和谐汇一 引言 和谐汇一资产管理 . 和谐汇一是一家专注于权益类二级市场投资的私募基金管理公司,由林鹏先生发起创立。旨在为投资 者、为所投资公司及社会发展发现持久价值,做中国最优秀企业的长期陪伴者。 当人们对"内卷"的共识,从一种竞争优势,变成一种恶性循环,中国产业正在进入一场深刻的内在 变革,反内卷成为各行各业的课题。 尤其对于中国制造业来说,规模优势、效率优势、成本优势已经走到极致的今天,很多行业已经赢 过了全球大部分的竞争对手、赢下了全球大部分的市场份额。更重要的问题已经变成了,如何赢下 更广泛的影响与认可? 这不仅关乎企业的利润,也关乎一种可持续的商业文化。 反内卷的时代下,如何重新去衡量行业的壁垒、企业的优劣?投资又面临什么新局面?和谐汇一执 行董事、总量研究员赵辰带来了他的解读。 在经历数十年以规模扩张、成本控制和全球市场份额争夺为主导的高速增长后,中国制造业正站在 一个关键的十字路口。"内卷",这个深刻描绘行业内激烈乃至过度竞争的词汇,已从一种发展动 力,逐渐演变为制约产业健康、侵蚀企业利润、甚至影响国际经贸关系的核心难题。 从曾经风光无两的新能源材料到根基 ...
“反内卷”升级下,股市影响几何?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 11:46
Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around the "anti-involution" policies aimed at addressing excessive competition in various industries, particularly focusing on the need for regulatory measures to improve product quality and eliminate low-price competition [1][2][3] - The "anti-involution" policy has evolved through several stages, starting from the initial discussions in 2024 to the latest measures proposed in 2025, indicating a comprehensive approach to tackle the issue of irrational competition [2][3] - The macroeconomic impact of "involution" includes a downward spiral of prices leading to reduced corporate profits and consumer spending, necessitating a structured approach to reverse this trend and stimulate economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - Industries expected to break the "involution" cycle include new energy sectors such as solar and electric vehicles, where technological innovation is seen as a key driver for differentiation and competition [4][5] - Traditional cyclical industries like steel and cement are also highlighted, with a focus on supply-side reforms to improve capacity utilization and financial stability [5] - The consumer manufacturing sector is encouraged to enhance quality and reduce costs through digitalization, particularly in livestock farming, to mitigate the effects of cyclical price fluctuations [5] Group 3 - The stock market is anticipated to experience a shift due to "anti-involution" measures, with potential improvements in profitability for certain sectors if price stability and capacity reduction are achieved [6][7] - The current market phase is characterized by policy-driven expectations, with future stages involving capacity clearing and profit recovery, similar to past supply-side reforms [6][7] - Investment strategies should focus on supply-side optimization, technological advancements, and market expansion opportunities, indicating a structural shift in the market dynamics [7][8]
“反内卷”点燃市场行情 哪些行业有望受益?(附个股基金名单)
天天基金网· 2025-07-10 11:45
Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy has become a hot topic in the stock and commodity markets, with various industries responding and institutions releasing related research reports [1] - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the "anti-involution" trend may develop in three phases: initial expectations catalyzed by policy, followed by rising prices of resource products, and finally, a prolonged period of high prices for these resources [1] - CITIC Securities identifies three key differences between the current "anti-involution" and the supply-side reform of 2015-2016, including broader industry coverage, better operating conditions for upstream enterprises, and a higher proportion of private enterprises in emerging industries [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Merchants Fund focuses on two major industrial issues: structural contradictions in capacity and disruptions to fair competition, particularly in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, where prices have dropped significantly [2] - Dongwu Securities highlights that the "anti-involution" policy will have a more pronounced effect on correcting vicious competition and benefiting emerging industries, particularly in sectors with high state-owned enterprise representation [2] - Specific sectors to watch include the photovoltaic industry chain, traditional industries facing overcapacity like steel and cement, and emerging non-manufacturing sectors such as e-commerce [2] Group 3 - Huachuang Securities identifies potential beneficiary industries of the "anti-involution" policy based on factors like state-owned enterprise representation, industry concentration, price elasticity, taxation, and employment [3] - Industries likely to benefit include coal mining, coke, ordinary steel, energy metals, glass fiber, steel raw materials, precious metals, and the hospitality sector [3]
几个圈内传闻,指向哪些赛道?
Hu Xiu· 2025-07-10 11:06
本篇评级为★★★,主要围绕以下内容展开: 1、重要会议点名房地产? 新闻解读评级说明:五星重磅,四星重要,三星级以下大家选择听。 在关键会议召开之前,市场对"去产能"这个赛道一直有预期,这种政策预期形成了较强的支撑,具备一 定的持续性。 1、重要会议点名房地产? 本文为妙投付费内容,上述仅为摘要,购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会,在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 今天的重磅消息比较多,也密集地反映在市场不同行业的涨跌上。我们一条一条来梳理。 2、去产能赛道,潜力透支了吗? 3、谁在大把买入银行? 4、战略资源品赛道搞接力赛,如何抓机会? 5、科技赛道有暖风吗? 2、去产能赛道,潜力透支了吗? 第二个方向是我们最近反复提到的"去产能、反内卷"方向。这个方向的目的,是要帮助很多企业恢 复"造血功能"。最近两天,这个赛道表现亮眼,今天仍然是市场的宠儿,尤其是光伏和煤炭。这两个板 块整体涨幅都超过2%,一些小市值公司表现更亮眼,涨幅超过3%。其他只要沾上"去产能"这三个字的 赛道,整体表现都不差,包括水泥、建材等,整体涨幅也在2%左右。 如有疑问请以音频内容 ...
建筑建材行业集体“反内卷”,要向“违规分包”“垫资施工”开刀
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 11:00
Group 1 - The construction industry has faced intense competition leading to low profit margins and unsustainable practices, prompting 33 major companies to jointly issue an initiative against "involution" [1][2] - The initiative emphasizes the need for the industry to focus on core responsibilities, enhance competitiveness, and resist illegal practices such as subcontracting and false bidding [2][3] - The construction sector has historically prioritized scale over quality, resulting in high output but low profitability, with issues like low-price bidding and excessive debt prevalent [3][6] Group 2 - The cement industry is responding to the "anti-involution" call by pushing for alignment between registered and actual production capacities, aiming for structural optimization and transformation [5][6] - Major waterproof material companies have announced price increases ranging from 1% to 13% to address rising costs and thin profit margins, indicating a shift towards better profitability [6][7] - The recent "anti-involution" movement has led to a rally in the A-share construction and materials sectors, with expectations of profit recovery for companies involved [6][7]
推进济南都市圈多维融合,济南政协“商量”凝聚智慧
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-07-10 10:43
Core Viewpoint - The Jinan metropolitan area is accelerating its integrated development, focusing on infrastructure connectivity, industrial collaboration, and public service integration to achieve higher efficiency, balanced development, and improved living standards [1] Infrastructure Development - Infrastructure connectivity is essential for the collaborative development of the metropolitan area, with ongoing projects like the expansion of Jinan International Airport and the development of the GTC comprehensive transportation center, which will integrate air, high-speed rail, and metro services [3] - The potential of the Xiaoqing River as a "golden waterway" is being realized, with plans to complete an 11-kilometer link to connect with the coastal port of Weifang, enabling seamless transport [3] Transportation Planning - Experts suggest strategies for transportation development, including enhancing the Jinan International Land Port and increasing the frequency of westward freight trains, as well as integrating transportation with tourism and low-altitude economy [4] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, Jinan plans to implement 235 key transportation projects with an investment of 350 billion yuan, having already completed 325.08 billion yuan [5] Industrial Collaboration - The metropolitan area aims to create a complementary industrial system, focusing on cross-regional industrial clusters and localizing supply chains, with companies like Jinwei Laser achieving localized supply chain integration [6][8] - The establishment of a collaborative mechanism for industrial chains is underway, with the goal of developing 13 signature industrial chains and 34 key industrial chains in Jinan [9] Public Services - Efforts are being made to promote "no-difference" sharing of public services, including healthcare and education, with initiatives like the Northern Health Medical Big Data Platform connecting 1,500 medical institutions across 16 cities [10] - Recommendations include establishing a cross-regional medical collaboration system and enhancing vocational education to align with industrial needs, ensuring a precise talent supply [11]
海峡股份(002320) - 002320海峡股份投资者关系管理信息20250710
2025-07-10 10:22
证券代码:002320 证券简称:海峡股份 海南海峡航运股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | 编号:20250710 | | --- | 投资者关系活动类别 特定对象调研 ☐分析师会议 ☐媒体采访 ☐业绩说明会 ☐新闻发布会 ☐路演活动 ☐现场参观 ☐其他 参与单位名称及人 员姓名 广发证券 陈宇 李然 时间 2025年07月10日 15:00-16:00 地点 腾讯会议 上市公司接待人员姓 名 证券事务代表 刘哲 投资者关系活动主 要内容介绍 问:想了解一下公司目前港口吞吐量上限是多少? 答:海口新海港客运枢纽的年设计通过能力为旅客3500万人次、车辆 560万辆次,此外,公司向控股股东租赁使用秀英港区轮渡码头,秀英港区 轮渡码头作为新海港的补充,两港合计的吞吐量上限较目前公司实际车客 运量仍有较大的容纳空间。 问:如果自贸港政策超预期,运力达到上限后,公司的应对策略会是 什么? 答:公司可以通过增加平板驳船投入、新造客滚船舶来满足市场需求, 此外可以通过开辟新航线缓解海口至海安航线压力。 问:请问公司海口至海安航线票价有无调整? 答:海口至海安航线票价近年未发生变动。未来,公司将通过提供港、 航增值服务 ...
巴州税务:税润荒原 绿涌丝路
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 10:15
Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the proactive measures taken by the tax authorities in Bazhou, Xinjiang, to support green development initiatives, particularly in the context of ecological civilization and sustainable growth strategies promoted by the government [1]. Group 1: Green Energy Projects - The Dashi Men Reservoir Power Generation Company, established in April 2021, is a key player in clean energy supply in Bazhou, with a total reservoir capacity of 127 million cubic meters and a designed annual power generation capacity of 176.5 million kilowatt-hours [2]. - Over the past three years, the company has benefited from approximately 1.49 million yuan in corporate income tax incentives under the Western Development policy, alleviating initial investment pressures [2]. - The company has created a positive cycle of "power generation protecting ecology, ecology promoting development," contributing to significant ecological benefits, including a reduction of approximately 235,000 tons of CO2 emissions annually [2]. Group 2: Wind Energy Initiatives - The 500MW onshore wind power project by China General Nuclear Power Group in Ruoqiang, Xinjiang, is a significant clean energy initiative during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3]. - The local tax authorities have established a "green tax service express" to provide tailored tax service plans for green industry enterprises, ensuring they fully utilize tax incentives [3]. - The project manager emphasized the timely guidance provided by tax authorities on various tax exemptions related to energy conservation and environmental protection, facilitating smoother project execution [3]. Group 3: Wastewater Treatment and Environmental Protection - The Jin Cheng Clean Water Treatment Company in Korla operates modern wastewater treatment facilities capable of processing up to 30,000 cubic meters of wastewater daily, achieving national A-level water quality standards [4]. - The company has benefited from 347,900 yuan in environmental protection tax reductions in 2024 due to meeting discharge standards, allowing for increased investment in technology upgrades and efficiency improvements [4]. - The Bazhou tax authorities are committed to promoting green development by implementing tax incentives and collaborating with environmental departments to encourage enterprises to enhance their wastewater treatment capabilities [4].
绿城水务: 广西五坤律师事务所关于广西绿城水务股份有限公司2025年第一次临时股东大会的法律意见书
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-10 10:12
广西五坤律师事务所 关于广西绿城水务股份有限公司 法律意见书 WK-G-2025-001-02 广西南宁市青秀区金湖路 59 号地王国际商会中心 46 楼 4607-4612 Room 4607-4612, 46/F, International Chamber of Commerce Tower, No.59 Jinhu Road, Qingxiu district, Nanning, Guangxi, China 法律意见书 广西五坤律师事务所 关于广西绿城水务股份有限公司 法律意见书 致:广西绿城水务股份有限公司 根据《中华人民共和国证券法》(以下简称《证券法》)、《中 华人民共和国公司法》(以下简称《公司法》)和中国证券监督管 理委员会《上市公司股东会规则》(以下简称《股东会规则》)等 法律、行政法规、规范性文件及《广西绿城水务股份有限公司章程》 (以下简称《公司章程》)的要求,广西五坤律师事务所(以下简 称本所)接受广西绿城水务股份有限公司(以下简称公司)的委托, 指派律师出席公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会(以下简称本次股东 大会)并就本次股东大会出具法律意见。 本所声明:本所律师仅对本次股东 ...
绿城水务: 广西绿城水务股份有限公司2025年第一次临时股东大会决议公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-10 10:12
(一)股东大会召开的时间:2025 年 07 月 10 日 (二)股东大会召开的地点:广西南宁市青秀区桂雅路 13 号绿城水务调度检测中 心 1519 会议室 (三)出席会议的普通股股东和恢复表决权的优先股股东及其持有股份情况: 份总数的比例(%) (四)表决方式是否符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定,大会主持情况等。 本次股东大会由公司董事会召集,董事长黄东海先生主持本次会议。大会采 取现场及网络投票相结合的方式表决本次股东大会的所有议案。本次会议的召集、 召开程序、出席会议人员的资格及表决方式均符合《公司法》和《公司章程》的 有关规定。 证券代码:601368 证券简称:绿城水务 公告编号:2025-019 广西绿城水务股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: ? 本次会议是否有否决议案:无 一、 会议召开和出席情况 同意 反对 弃权 股东类型 票数 比例(%) 票数 比例(%) 票数 比例(%) A股 509,860,967 98.5706 7,061,775 1.3652 331,6 ...