光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心小幅回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.11 美元至 | | | | 68.04 美元/桶，跌幅 0.16%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.41 美元/ | | | | 桶，至 69.36 美元/桶，跌幅 0.59%。SC2507 以 494.4 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.67%。地缘风险仍在持续，美国国务院 | | | | 和军方表示，由于中东地区可能发生动荡，美国政府正在将非必 | | | | 要人员从该地区撤离。根据最新的审查结果和"确保美国人在国 | | | | 内外的安全"的承诺，已下令撤出美国驻巴格达大使馆的所有非 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 必要人员。该大使馆此前已实行人员限制，所以此命令不会影响 | | | | 大量人员。此外，美国国务院也批准非必要人员及其家属离开巴 | 偏强 | | | 林和科威特。随着油价的上行，成品油市场情绪积极，山东地炼 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the rising prices of HVO and SAF in Europe due to strong seasonal demand, which is expected to drive up UCO prices in China as well [1][2]. Group 1: HVO/SAF Price Trends - As of June 11, 2025, the prices for HVO and SAF in Europe are $2,002 and $1,949 per ton, reflecting increases of 13.97% and 11.60% respectively from their lowest points in Q2 2025 [1][2]. - The increase in SAF demand is attributed to the strong seasonal demand ahead of the summer flight season in Europe, with high-quality HVO experiencing a larger price increase [1][2]. Group 2: UCO Price Dynamics - In China, as of June 12, 2025, the prices for gutter oil and waste oil in East China are 6,250 and 6,650 RMB per ton, showing increases of 3.31% and 2.31% respectively from their lowest points in Q2 2025 [2]. - The rising demand for HVO and SAF overseas has led to increased inquiries for UCO in Chinese ports, resulting in a price increase for UCO [2]. Group 3: EU SAF Policy and Cost Implications - The EU is gradually implementing a 2% SAF blending policy, with measures such as an environmental surcharge of 6-20 euros being introduced by some airlines to cover the costs associated with SAF blending [3]. - Despite these measures, the compliance costs for using SAF in Europe remain high, with an estimated total cost of $12 billion for purchasing 1 million tons of SAF by 2025, potentially doubling the procurement costs for airlines [3]. Group 4: Future Demand for UCO - The demand for SAF is expected to grow steadily, which will likely increase the demand for UCO as EU end-user demand recovers and SAF production facilities continue to actively procure raw materials [4]. - The price of UCO is influenced by the procurement levels of HVO and SAF plants, with a notable increase in UCO demand observed since 2025 due to its strong carbon reduction attributes [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in overseas HVO/SAF prices, with European prices rising by 13.97% and 11.60% respectively since the lowest points in Q2 2025, driven by strong seasonal demand [5] - The EU is gradually implementing a 2% SAF blending policy, which is expected to enhance the demand for SAF and subsequently increase the price of UCO, benefiting the entire UCO-HVO/SAF industry chain [6] - The demand for UCO is anticipated to grow steadily due to the increasing SAF demand, with domestic UCO prices rising as a result of heightened procurement levels from SAF and biodiesel plants [7] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report indicates a positive outlook for the basic chemical industry, with a maintained investment rating [1] - A notable trend is the increase in UCO prices in China, with prices for gutter oil and waste oil rising by 3.31% and 2.31% respectively since Q2 2025 [5] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the EU's measures to support the SAF market, including subsidies for airlines purchasing sustainable aviation fuel, which is expected to drive up costs and demand [6] - The report notes that China's SAF production costs are lower due to abundant and cheaper UCO resources, positioning China to capture a significant market share in the EU [6] Company Insights - The report provides a table of companies involved in HVO/SAF production, highlighting their planned capacities and market valuations, with 嘉澳环保 leading with a planned capacity of 740,000 tons [10] - The report identifies key beneficiaries of the SAF demand increase, including 嘉澳环保, 海新能科, 卓越新能, and 鹏鹞环保 [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Green Methanol Alliance and Service Platform" in Tianjin aims to create a new ecosystem for international shipping green fuels, involving 16 companies including China Shipbuilding Fuel Co., Ltd. and China Merchants Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. [1][3] Group 1: Alliance Formation - The alliance was initiated by multiple governmental and industry bodies, including the Tianjin Investment Promotion Bureau and the China Classification Society, with the mission to develop systematic rules and integrate resources across the entire industry chain [3] - The alliance aims to address issues such as supply-demand imbalance and price transparency in the green methanol sector [3] Group 2: Strategic Advantages - Tianjin Port, as the largest port in Northern China, has significant advantages for developing green methanol refueling, including a dense European route network and proximity to major green methanol production areas [3] - The port's specialized liquid chemical terminals and rail lines enhance its methanol storage and transportation capabilities [3] Group 3: Policy Support - The Tianjin Maritime Safety Administration has issued interim measures for the safe supervision of low-flashpoint fuel refueling operations, filling a regulatory gap in the industry [3] - The approval of the first bonded LNG refueling pilot project in Northern China by CNOOC Tianjin New Energy Company demonstrates the alignment of policy with industry development [3] Group 4: Future Development - The alliance plans to leverage Tianjin's resources and national support to promote the first green methanol fuel refueling business in Northern China [4] - There are intentions to establish a green methanol spot trading market to accelerate the gathering of industry elements and position Tianjin as a center for low-carbon fuel refueling and trade in international shipping [4]

美国白宫：完成对环境保护局生物燃料混合规定方案的审查。 ...

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 5106 字，阅读全文约需 17 分钟 问题的提出 《新能源汽车产业发展规划（2021-2035年）》提出，力争经过15年的持续努力，我国新能源汽车核心技 术达到国际先进水平，质量品牌具备较强国际竞争力。纯电动汽车成为新销售车辆的主流，公共领域用车全面 电动化，燃料电池汽车实现商业化应用，高度自动驾驶汽车实现规模化应用，充换电服务网络便捷高效，氢燃 料供给体系建设稳步推进，有效促进节能减排水平和社会运行效率的提升。 规划明确提出，要加快充换电基础设施建设。科学布局充换电基础设施，加强与城乡建设规划、电网规 划及物业管理、城市停车等的统筹协调；提升充电基础设施服务水平。引导企业联合建立充电设施运营服务平 台，实现互联互通、信息共享与统一结算；鼓励商业模式创新。结合老旧小区改造、城市更新等工作，引导多 方联合开展充电设施建设运营，支持居民区多车一桩、临近车位共享等合作模式发展；推动智能有序充电、大 功率充电、无线充电等新技术的研发应用，并统一换电标准，提升换电模式的安全性、可靠性和经济性。推进 加氢基础设施建设。建立完善加氢基础设施的管理规范。 包括完善居住社区充电设施 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价再现突破式反弹，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 3.17 美元 | | | | 至 68.15 美元/桶，涨幅 4.88%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.90 美 | | | | 元至 69.77 美元/桶，涨幅 4.34%。SC2507 以 497.4 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 16.2 元/桶，涨幅为 3.37%。昨天凌晨突发，中东地缘动荡进一 | | | | 步加剧，油价凌晨大幅拉高。美媒称，美国防长下令美军家属可 | | | | 从中东各地自愿撤离。美国军方正在与国务院及其在该地区的盟 | | | | 友合作，"保持持续的战备状态"。EIA 数据，上周美国原油库存 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 下降，因炼油活动增加，推高汽油和馏分油库存。截至 6 月 6 日 | 偏强 | | | 当周，美国商业原油库存减少 360 万桶至 4.324 亿桶，此前市场 | | | | 预期为减少200万桶。当周俄克拉荷马州的库欣 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for fuel oil is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 2952.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 3020.00 CNY, reflecting a 3.05% increase [1] - The current fuel oil sales in China are 44,200 tons, up from 43,100 tons in the previous period, indicating a 2.55% increase [1] - The inventory rate for domestic fuel oil is at 6.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous period's 5.6% [1] Group 2 - ARA region fuel oil inventories have decreased, which is favorable for fuel oil prices [2] - The trade demand is recovering as tariff disputes move towards agreement, which is expected to support fuel oil prices [2] - The cost side is seeing a rebound in crude oil prices, which is anticipated to drive fuel oil prices higher [2]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Shanghai International Shipping Sustainable Fuel Certification System marks a significant step for China in building international green governance rules for shipping [3] Group 1: Development of Green Fuel Certification - Shanghai aims to establish a green fuel refueling service center by 2030, laying the groundwork for an international green fuel trading and certification center [3] - The demand for green fuel certification in China is substantial, given the country's large shipping volume, with 2022 maritime cargo volume reaching 4.151 billion tons [3] - The Shanghai International Shipping Carbon Footprint Labeling Association was established to focus on the development of a sustainable fuel certification system [7] Group 2: International Standards and Challenges - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) will implement a net-zero emissions framework starting in 2028, making the establishment of a sustainable fuel certification system urgent for the global shipping industry [4] - The EU's ISSC EU certification standard, which has been in place since 2010, serves as a model for sustainable fuel certification, requiring a lifecycle carbon emission reduction of at least 50% compared to fossil fuels [4][5] - A key challenge for China is to align its green fuel certification with international standards while promoting domestic green fuel development [8] Group 3: International Cooperation and Market Integration - Shanghai can establish a green fuel production and sales cooperation system with regions rich in renewable energy, such as the Middle East and North Africa [9] - The integration of green fuel resources into the Belt and Road Initiative is essential for reducing green fuel prices and enhancing market competitiveness [9] - Engaging with globally influential certification bodies like ISCC can help Shanghai enhance its position in the international green shipping fuel market [9] Group 4: Learning from Global Practices - Singapore's port has successfully utilized green financial tools to lower the transition costs for shipowners, providing incentives for the use of low-carbon fuels [10] - The port plans to launch innovative products, including carbon tax hedging and green fuel futures, by 2025 [11] - Shanghai can leverage Singapore's experiences in building trading platforms and applying green financial tools to enhance its green fuel certification service center [13]

美国总统特朗普周三表示，美中已达成一项让脆弱的贸易休战回到正轨的协议，此前华盛 顿和北京官员就一项包括关税税率在内的框架达成了一致。框架还包括有关稀土和中国留 学生的内容。特朗普在其社交媒体平台上公布了伦敦两天会谈的一些首次披露的细节。用 美国商务部长卢特尼克的话来说，此次会谈为上月在日内瓦达成的一项旨在降低双边报复 性关税的协定"增添了实质内容"。 美国和伊拉克消息人士表示，美国正准备撤离驻伊拉克大使馆部分人员，并将允许中东各 军事基地的军人家属离开，因该地区安全风险加剧。消息人士并未具体说明是哪些安全风 险促使政府做出这一决定。白宫官员表示，美国总统特朗普已听取了相关汇报。相关报道 导致油价上涨逾 4%。 EIA 数据显示，截止 6 月 6 日当周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量 8.34 亿桶，比 前一周下降 341 万桶；美国商业原油库存量 4.32 亿桶，比前一周下降 364.4 万桶；美国汽 油库存总量 2.30 亿桶，比前一周增长 150.4 万桶；馏分油库存量为 1.09 亿桶，比前一周增 长 124.6 万桶。美国原油日均产量 1342.8 万桶，比前周日均产量增加 2 万桶，比去年同期 ...