Investment Rating - The report raises the real GDP growth forecast for China to 4.6% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, up from previous estimates of 4.0% and 3.5% respectively [1][10][19] Core Insights - The US-China trade talks resulted in larger-than-expected tariff rollbacks, with US tariffs on Chinese goods dropping to 30% for an initial 90 days, significantly reducing the previous tariff burden [2][8] - The effective US tariff rate on China is estimated to be around 39%, down from 107% previously, while China's effective tariff rate on the US is around 30%, down from 144% [2][10] - The report anticipates that Chinese real exports will be roughly flat in 2025/26, a significant improvement from the previous forecast of a -5% annual decline [1][10] Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The report indicates that the tariff rollbacks will lead to a smaller drag on China's growth, resulting in less demand for domestic policy easing than previously expected [8][10] - The net export contribution to China's GDP growth is now expected to be +0.1 percentage points, compared to a previous expectation of -0.5 percentage points [10] Policy Adjustments - Monetary policy easing expectations have been adjusted to only one 10 basis point cut in Q4 2025, down from two cuts previously anticipated [1][10] - The augmented fiscal deficit estimate for China has been lowered to 13.0% of GDP for 2025, down from 13.5% [1][10][16] Growth Forecast Revisions - The report raises sequential growth forecasts for Q2 and H2 2025, resulting in a 0.9 percentage point increase on a Q4/Q4 basis [10][19] - The revised forecasts for China's GDP growth reflect a more stable outlook amid ongoing trade negotiations, with balanced risks primarily surrounding US-China trade relations [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report raises the 2025 growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1% Q4/Q4 and lowers the 12-month recession odds to 35% from 45% previously [11][14][15]. Core Insights - The US and China have agreed to a 90-day pause in retaliatory tariffs, resulting in a net increase of +30 percentage points for US tariffs on China and +15 percentage points for China's tariffs on the US by 2025 [4][6]. - The effective US tariff rate is expected to increase by +13 percentage points in 2025, slightly lower than the previous assumption of +15 percentage points, due to anticipated sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [6][10]. - The report indicates a smaller increase in consumer prices, leading to a reduced tax-like impact on real disposable income and firmer consumption growth [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Forecast - The report anticipates a peak hit to year-over-year GDP growth from tariffs of 1.4 percentage points, down from 1.8 percentage points previously [11]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% in December 2025, a slight decrease from the previous forecast of 4.7% [11]. Federal Reserve Policy - The rationale for Federal Reserve rate cuts has shifted from insurance to normalization, with expectations for three 25 basis point cuts starting in December 2025, rather than sequentially from July [17][19][20]. - The terminal rate range remains unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% [19]. Tariff Policy Implications - The report suggests that the lower US tariff rates on China may influence reciprocal tariff rates on other trading partners, indicating a potential for lower rates overall [5][6]. - The ongoing dialogue between the US and China on economic and trade relations is expected to contribute to a rebalancing of trade [4].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a real GDP growth forecast of 4% for 2025, with a revised export volume growth forecast for 2025 adjusted to -5% from -10% previously, indicating a more resilient export performance than initially expected [1][3]. Core Insights - Chinese exports showed unexpected strength in April, with a year-over-year increase of 8.1% in USD terms, which was significantly above market expectations. This resilience is attributed to trade re-routing and front-loading activities during a temporary tariff pause [2][3]. - The report suggests that the better-than-expected export performance reduces immediate pressure on Beijing for aggressive policy easing, with the next critical milestone for potential easing being the July Politburo meeting [4][9]. - The forecast for overall real domestic demand growth has been slightly lowered to 4.5% for 2025, down from 5.0%, reflecting a delay in the rotation towards domestic demand due to sustained export strength [9][21]. Summary by Sections Export Performance - The report highlights that despite weaker signals from manufacturing PMIs, actual trade data showed resilience, with exports expected to decline by 5% in 2025, a revision from a previous forecast of -10% [3][4]. - The net export contribution to GDP is now forecasted at -0.5 percentage points, an improvement from the earlier estimate of -1.0 percentage points [3]. Policy Outlook - Following recent monetary policy adjustments, including a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 10 basis point policy rate cut, the report anticipates further policy rate cuts of 20 basis points for the remainder of the year [4][8]. - The augmented fiscal deficit is projected to widen from 10.4% of GDP in 2024 to 13.5% in 2025, indicating a more significant fiscal stimulus than previously expected [8][16]. Inflation and Trade Uncertainty - The report anticipates continued PPI deflation, with forecasts for PPI inflation at -2.1% for 2025 and -0.6% for 2026, reflecting sluggish domestic demand and overcapacity in various industries [10][19]. - There remains high uncertainty regarding US-China trade relations, with expectations that bilateral tariffs may decrease from current levels of over 100% to around 50-60% in the near future [11][20].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for EM local currency funds, suggesting a new phase of inflows as investors anticipate USD weakness [10][17]. Core Insights - EM fixed income investors are shifting towards local market funds, with a notable preference for non-USD denominated assets, reflecting expectations of USD weakness [10][21]. - The GBI-EM Global Diversified Index has returned approximately 8.5% year-to-date, outperforming hard currency returns of 1.6% [10][22]. - The report highlights a significant rally in the TWD, driven by exporters selling USD and foreign inflows into Taiwan equities [34][40]. Summary by Sections EM Fixed Income Strategy - The report outlines a historical perspective on EM fund flows, categorizing them into four phases from 2008 to the present, with a recent shift towards local currency inflows [18][21]. - The analysis suggests that a weakening USD is crucial for sustaining inflows into local currency funds, with projections indicating further USD depreciation [17][18]. LatAm Oil & Gas - Strong capital expenditure levels in Latin America are expected to drive a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3% through 2030, primarily from Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana [4]. LatAm Macro Strategy - The report assesses risks to central bank pricing in Latin America, indicating mixed rate valuations but identifying potential pockets of value in the region [5]. IMF Spring Meetings Takeaways - The IMF's latest projections indicate a weaker global growth outlook, with emerging markets facing increased fiscal risks and debt levels [60][63]. - The report notes that while fiscal balances are under pressure, there are positive developments in several countries, including Argentina and Nigeria, which may support their reform programs [70].

来看最新消息。 据央视新闻报道，美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔表示，特朗普政府的关税政策可能会在今年导致美国经济增长放缓和通胀上升。 美国联邦储备委员会理事迈克尔·巴尔表示， 特朗普政府的关税政策可能会在今年晚些时候推高通胀、拉低经济增速并推高失业率。 迈克尔·巴尔认为，更高的关税可能会导致全球供应链中断，并对通胀造成持续的上行压力，企业需要时间来调整分销网络。而一些供应商尤其是小企 业，可能无法足够快地适应新形势并可能会倒闭，这加剧了供应链的混乱。 迈克尔·巴尔担忧， 随着经济增长放缓，关税将导致失业率上升，如果同时出现通货膨胀和失业率上升的情况， 美联储可能会陷入困境。 欧盟委员会主席提出会面条件 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当地时间9日在布鲁塞尔表示，在欧美能够进行具体的贸易谈判之前，她不会前往华盛顿会见美国总统特朗普。 冯德莱恩在会见记者时表示， 如果访问白宫，她希望有一个可供讨论的一揽子协议。这个计划必须是具体的，希望有一个欧美双方都能同意的解决方 案。 昨夜，美股高开后集体跳水。美联储理事最新表示，关税政策可能导致美国经济增长放缓。 而欧美关税谈判方面，欧盟委员会主席也提出了明确的和特朗普见面的条件： 必须有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen aims to enhance its financial market by supporting leading institutions through mergers, reorganizations, and innovative organizational strategies to strengthen their capabilities [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Shenzhen Municipal Financial Management Bureau and the Shenzhen Regulatory Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission have issued an action plan for 2025-2026 to leverage capital markets in building an industrial financial center [1] - The plan emphasizes the importance of high-quality listed companies and aims to strengthen regulatory oversight of investment banking activities [1] Group 2: Support for Institutions - Leading institutions are encouraged to develop through mergers and reorganizations, while smaller institutions are urged to pursue differentiated and specialized operations [1] - Investment institutions are prompted to enhance their research capabilities and optimize resource allocation [1] Group 3: Market Development - The initiative includes guiding leading securities firms to develop overseas businesses and supporting companies in utilizing both domestic and international markets to increase their global influence [1] - There is a focus on product innovation to meet the wealth management needs of residents and to promote high-quality development of inclusive finance [1] Group 4: Long-term Investment - The plan supports investment institutions in utilizing social security funds, pension funds, and annuities to attract long-term capital into the market [1] - It also promotes the development of personal pension services in Shenzhen and encourages pension and insurance funds to accelerate their equity investment activities [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets [3]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 is forecasted to reach 6,500 by Q4 2025, representing a total return of 15.6% with a volatility of 19% [3]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across global equity markets, with the DAX outperforming at +3.8% and technology sectors leading at +4.3% [101]. - The US Dollar experienced a significant decline of 4.55% in April, marking its second worst monthly performance in 15 years [9][101]. - Credit spreads tightened for US and EU high-yield bonds, while spreads widened for investment-grade indices [101]. Summary by Relevant Sections Equities - S&P 500: Current level at 5,687, forecasted to 6,500 with a return of 15.6% [3]. - MSCI Europe: Current level at 2,137, forecasted to 2,150 with a return of 3.8% [3]. - Topix: Current level at 2,688, forecasted to 2,600 with a return of -0.8% [3]. - MSCI Emerging Markets: Current level at 1,133, forecasted to 1,050 with a return of -4.6% [3]. Fixed Income - UST 10-year yield forecasted to decrease to 4.00% from 4.31%, with a total return of 6.8% [3]. - US Investment Grade (IG) credit spread at 102 bps, forecasted to tighten to 95 bps with a return of 1.5% [3]. Commodities - Brent crude oil forecasted to decrease to $57.5 from $61, with a return of -5.2% [3]. - Gold forecasted to increase to $3,500 from $3,250, with a return of 5.3% [3]. Currency - JPY forecasted to appreciate to 141 from 145, with a return of 1.0% [3]. - EUR forecasted to depreciate to 1.08 from 1.13, with a return of -6.5% [3]. Market Sentiment - The report indicates a negative sentiment in the market, with the Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) reflecting stress and positioning data [54][58].

Investment Rating - The report suggests that India will likely outperform a global bear market while underperforming in a bull market, indicating a positive long-term investment outlook for India despite global uncertainties [1][3]. Core Insights - Strong macroeconomic fundamentals are highlighted, including improving terms of trade, declining primary deficit, and falling inflation volatility, which are expected to support mid- to high-teens earnings growth annually over the next three to five years [6]. - Technical indicators are favorable, with orderly declines in the market and persistent retail buying, suggesting a structural nature to the current market dynamics [6]. - Key catalysts for India include dovish actions from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), potential stimulus through GST rate cuts, and a trade deal with the US, while global factors such as US policy and growth rates remain crucial [6]. Summary by Sections Macro Stability - The report emphasizes strong macro stability with a reliable source of domestic risk capital and a dovish RBI, which are expected to support economic growth [6][35]. Corporate Fundamentals - Earnings growth is projected to be robust, with estimates suggesting a compound annual growth rate of 16% through fiscal year 2028, driven by increased private investment and macro stability [94][96]. Valuations - The current price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.8 implies a 10-year annual return of 9.6%, indicating improved long-term return prospects [77][78]. Portfolio Strategy - The recommended portfolio strategy favors domestic cyclicals over defensives and external-facing sectors, with an overweight position in financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials [6][100]. Economic Forecasts - GDP growth is forecasted at 6.3% for fiscal year 2025, with a gradual decline in the repo rate expected to support economic activity [94]. Index Target - The base case target for the BSE Sensex is set at 82,000 by December 2025, reflecting a modest upside potential of 2% from current levels [95][96]. Sentiment Indicators - The proprietary sentiment indicator remains in the buy zone, suggesting positive market sentiment despite global uncertainties [6][91]. Institutional Flows - Institutional flows are currently off highs, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics that could impact equity returns in the near term [88]. Risk Factors - While the report identifies several risks, it emphasizes that the overall outlook for India remains positive, supported by strong fundamentals and favorable technicals [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Chinese exports showed a year-over-year growth of 10.1% in real terms for Q1 2025, while nominal exports grew by 5.6% due to lower export prices across all categories [7] - The report anticipates a significant slowdown in export volume growth in the coming months if tariffs are maintained, projecting a decline of 5% in total goods export volume for 2025 [7][50] - Chinese nominal imports fell by 7.2% year-over-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to decreasing import volumes [25] - The current account surplus is expected to decrease to 1.6% of GDP in 2025 from 2.2% in 2024, driven by a narrower goods trade surplus and a widening services trade deficit [7][55] Summary by Sections Exports - Chinese exports remained solid in Q1 2025, with a 10.1% year-over-year growth in real terms, while nominal exports grew by 5.6% [7] - The decline in export prices was broad-based, affecting all categories, with the most significant increases in real terms for stone/glass/metals and transportation equipment [7][21] - Exports to Africa saw the highest year-over-year increase in Q1 [18] - New export orders under both NBS and Caixin manufacturing PMIs fell sharply in April amid higher US tariffs [23] Imports - Nominal imports decreased by 7.2% year-over-year in Q1 2025, with the weakest growth in stone/glass/metals due to lower gold imports [25] - Mechanical machinery and electric equipment saw the strongest import growth, while import prices for stone/glass/metals increased the most [25][39] - Imports fell for all regions except Japan, Korea & Taiwan, and ASEAN [33] Current Account and Balance of Payments - The report projects a decline in China's goods trade surplus to 3.7% of GDP in 2025 from 4.0% in 2024 [7] - The broad balance of payments (BBOP) is expected to remain unchanged at 0.4% of GDP in 2025, with significant net FDI outflows [8][57] - The current account balance is projected to narrow, reflecting a combination of a smaller goods trade surplus and a wider services trade deficit [55]