Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The US ADP and ISM non - manufacturing data were worse than expected, leading to a weaker US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. China's May PMI data improved, and the economy continued to expand, boosting domestic risk appetite. Short - term, the stock index may fluctuate, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; the treasury bond may oscillate at a high level, and it's better to observe carefully. For commodities, black may rebound from a low level, and it's advisable to observe carefully; non - ferrous metals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; energy and chemicals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to observe carefully; precious metals may be strong at a high level, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US May ADP employment was 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous 62,000. The May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, shrinking for the first time in nearly a year. The US dollar index weakened due to these factors and the president's call for a rate cut, and global risk appetite increased. Domestic: China's May PMI data improved, the economy expanded, and short - term domestic risk appetite was boosted. Although the US tightened restrictions on China's semiconductor and aircraft engine sectors, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also lifted domestic risk appetite [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as beauty care, clothing and home textiles, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. China's May PMI data improvement and the expected call between Chinese and US leaders boosted domestic risk appetite. The market focused on US trade policies and negotiations. Short - term, it's advisable to be cautious and go long [3]. Precious Metals - Supported by a weaker US dollar and weak US data, precious metals rose slightly on Wednesday. COMEX gold August contract reached $3397 per ounce. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9, the lowest since June 2024. ADP data showed the fewest private - sector job increases in over two years. The labor market showed signs of cooling. Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term and have a solid long - term upward trend. It's advisable to focus on the employment report on Friday [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded on Wednesday. The rebound of coking coal and coke prices improved market sentiment. The actual demand was okay, with inventory decreasing but apparent consumption slightly falling. The supply side saw a slight increase in hot - rolled coil production and a slight decrease in building materials production. Steel may oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday. The iron - making molten iron output declined for three consecutive weeks, but the high profitability of steel mills led to different views on the decline path. The global iron ore shipment and arrival volumes increased this week. The delay of FMG's iron bridge project should be noted. Iron ore may oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Wednesday. The demand for ferroalloys decreased slightly. The production of silicon manganese increased slightly. The prices of raw materials were weak, and the market transaction was average. Silicon iron and silicon manganese may oscillate in the short - term [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Saudi Arabia intends to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August or September, and the improvement of the Canadian wildfire situation led to a slight decline in oil prices [7]. - **Asphalt**: With the decline of oil prices, asphalt oscillated narrowly. Demand recovered to a limited extent. The basis of major consumption areas decreased, and the inventory destocking stagnated. Asphalt will follow crude oil to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [7]. - **PX**: The PX price remained high, and PXN was around 270. Short - term maintenance was relatively high, and with the support of crude oil, PX will oscillate strongly. However, the reduction of PTA long - term contracts and the lack of gasoline - blending demand may lead to a slight decline in PX demand later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remained at +200, and the 9 - 1 structure was around 140. The downstream was in a cash - flow deficit, with weak new orders. PTA may oscillate weakly later [8][9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the rebound of black metals, ethylene glycol recovered. Although there is some support at 4300, the supply recovery of synthetic - gas - made ethylene glycol is certain, and the probability of a sharp rise is low. It may form a bottom, and short - term trading can be observed [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillated weakly. Terminal orders recovered slowly, and the downstream may reduce production. Short - fiber may continue to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The possible call between Chinese and US leaders boosted market sentiment. The copper ore supply was relatively tight, while the production of electrolytic copper was high. The demand may decline as the peak season ended. Copper may oscillate in the short - term [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the overall commodity market, aluminum prices rose. There is no clear market logic currently, and aluminum may oscillate in the short - term. Later, attention should be paid to the change in social inventory and the high - tariff risk [10]. - **Tin**: Affected by the slow possible resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, tin prices rose. The domestic tin ore supply was tight, and the demand was mixed. Tin may stabilize in the short - term, but the high - tariff risk may put pressure on prices [11]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Supported by a weaker US dollar, CBOT soybeans and grains may maintain a range - bound market. The US soybean sowing progress was 84%, and the weather was stable, lacking continuous weather premium [12]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills may continue to recover, and soybean meal lacks a stable upward driver. The supply of rapeseed meal is uncertain, and the port inventory may decline. The market's expectation of trade tension decreased. The premium of soybean and rapeseed meal may decline if the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [12][13]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.58%. Malaysia's production and inventory are expected to increase, and the external market is weak. Indonesia's 2024/2025 palm oil production is estimated to be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's is estimated to be 19 million tons [13]. - **Live Pigs**: After the holiday, the supply and demand of live pigs were both weak. Pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term price increase due to the narrowing of the basis [14]. - **Corn**: The northeast corn产区 had a strong intention to support prices, and the north - south port corn inventory may continue to decline. The substitution of wheat for corn in feed may not affect the overall trend. The corn futures market was inactive, and there is no upward impetus currently [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each selected option variety, strategies are provided based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions. The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, methanol, etc [3] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical option underlying assets are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, annual average, call and put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [6] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation shows that the price has soared, and OPEC +'s production increase is lower than expected. The market has shown a large - amplitude oscillating pattern. Option strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The factory inventory has slightly increased, and the port inventory has decreased. The market is in a weak and bearish state. Strategies include constructing a bearish short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: The port and enterprise inventories have increased, and the market has shown a weak and bearish rebound pattern. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased, and the market has shown a pattern of short - term bullish rise followed by a decline at a high level. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long + put + short call option strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and the market is in a bearish trend. Strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a long + put + short call option strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The domestic main production areas have entered the full - scale tapping period. The market is in a bearish downward pattern. Strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a bearish short call + put option combination strategy [11] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The overall load of the polyester industry is low, and the PTA market has shown a pattern of bullish rise followed by high - level oscillation. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [11] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: New production facilities are expected to be put into operation, and the market is in a short - term oscillating pattern. Strategies include constructing a bearish wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Soda Ash**: The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is in a bearish downward pattern. Strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options, a bearish short call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.5.7 Urea Options - The inventory has increased, and the market has shown a pattern of oscillating decline. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long + put + short call option strategy for spot hedging [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views Crude Oil - International oil prices rose, mainly driven by macro and supply - side factors boosting market risk appetite. In the short - term, the upward trend of the market is due to supply expectation adjustments and macro - geopolitical impacts on market sentiment. In the long - term, the balance sheet may continue to loosen. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The expected price ranges are [59, 69] for WTI, [61, 71] for Brent, and [440, 500] for SC. Options can consider buying straddle structures [2]. Methanol - The methanol market is facing significant inventory accumulation pressure. The 09 contract is mainly priced based on the oversupply situation in the inland area. The market will continue to force production cuts. The price will continue to decline in an oscillatory manner, with short - term resistance around 2270 and a medium - term target of 2050 - 2100 [5]. Styrene - Although OPEC+ has a strong production increase expectation, geopolitical risks and seasonal factors support oil prices in the short - term. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in June, and the cost support for styrene is weak. With the improvement of styrene industry profits, supply is expected to increase while demand is weak, so styrene prices are under pressure. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [9]. Polyolefins - In the plastics market, the supply of PE may see inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports, while the supply pressure of PP will increase as maintenance ends. The demand lacks sustainability. It is recommended to short - sell PP on rallies and consider expanding the LP spread [13]. Caustic Soda and PVC - For caustic soda, the supply - side contradiction is limited in June, and some enterprises want to support prices. The demand from the alumina industry provides strong support for the spot price. It is advisable to consider expanding the spread between the near - month and 09 contracts. For PVC, the long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the short - term supply pressure will increase. It is recommended to short - sell PVC on rallies, with an expected price range of 4500 - 5000 [38]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in the continuous impact of high supply and weak demand. The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. After the Dragon Boat Festival, if agricultural fertilizer procurement fails to start effectively and the export volume is low, the price may decline [41]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is increasing, and demand may weaken. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6500 - 6900, and consider reverse spreads for PX9 - 1 and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, but short - term support is strong. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900, and consider reverse spreads for TA9 - 1. - MEG: The supply - demand structure in June is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 around 4200 and positive spreads for EG9 - 1. - Short - fiber: The driving force is weaker than the raw material end. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trading, and expand the processing fee at a low level. - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 4, Brent rose 1.00 to 65.63, WTI fell 0.18 to 63.23. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 decreased significantly [2]. - **Supply Factors**: Canadian wildfires led to a supply interruption of about 350,000 barrels per day of heavy oil production [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2509 rose 17 to 2225. The MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 61 to 6 [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 5.64%, and port inventory increased. The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 decreased significantly [5]. Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The styrene East - China spot price fell 330 to 7430. The EB07 - EB08 spread decreased by 24 to 78 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in June, and styrene supply may increase while demand is weak [9]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 - 2509 increased by 4 to - 28, and PP2505 - 2509 increased by 19 to - 39 [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and the开工 rates of some devices changed [13]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Prices and Spreads**: For caustic soda, FOB East - China port price rose to 410. For PVC, V2505 fell 58 to 4905 [33][34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda has many maintenance plans in June, and PVC supply is expected to increase in the short - term [38]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The 09 contract fell 12 to 1761. The 05 contract - 09 contract spread increased by 13 to - 43 [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily production reached 207,000 tons, and enterprise inventory increased by 6.9%. Demand is in the off - season [41]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: PX prices fell, and the PX - crude oil spread decreased by 31 to 366. PTA prices decreased, and the PTA spot processing fee increased by 66 to 444 [44]. - **开工率**: The开工 rates of some devices in the polyester industry chain changed, such as a 2.6% increase in the Asian PX开工率 [44].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, considering the unclear results of the US - Iran negotiations, the lack of clear OPEC production - increase data, and the shale - oil bottom - support effect, it's not advisable to chase short positions even if the negotiations are successful. Short - term observation is recommended [1]. - For methanol, with weakening inland prices, stable coal, and the return of previously shut - down plants, supply pressure is high. Although downstream profits are improving, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. For cross - variety trading, consider going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, there's no clear price trend. It's recommended to observe the market due to the low basis [5]. - For rubber, the market is weak. A neutral approach with short - term trading is advised, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][9]. - For PVC, although inventory is declining rapidly, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation is expected to continue, leading to a weak - oscillation trend. However, beware of rebounds if the weak export expectation doesn't materialize [10]. - For polyethylene, the price may oscillate. The supply side may face pressure from new capacity in Q2, and the demand side is entering a seasonal off - peak [13][14]. - For polypropylene, it's expected to be bearish in June. The supply side has planned capacity releases, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [15]. - For PX, the de - stocking may slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in Q3. It's expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [17]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [18][19]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking phase, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season ends [20]. Summaries by Industry Crude Oil - **Price**: WTI rose $0.30 (0.48%) to $63.34; Brent rose $0.49 (0.75%) to $65.61; INE rose 18.40 yuan (4.14%) to 462.5 yuan [1]. - **Inventory**: At the Fujairah port, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories decreased by 4.69%, 36.81%, 18.14%, and 14.88% respectively [1]. Methanol - **Price**: On June 3, the 09 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 2225 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 28 yuan/ton with a basis of +50 [3]. - **Supply - demand**: Domestic supply will increase, and imports in June will rise significantly. The port MTO plant restarted, while traditional demand weakened [3]. Urea - **Price**: On June 3, the 09 - contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1761 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat with a basis of +79 [5]. - **Supply - demand**: Domestic production reached a record high, and short - term supply will remain high. Compound fertilizer production is ending, and agricultural demand will increase. Exports may improve slightly [5]. Rubber - **Price**: NR and RU continued to decline [7]. - **Supply - demand**: Bulls believe factors in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, while bears think macro expectations are poor, demand is flat, and new supply may increase [8]. - **Operation**: A neutral approach with short - term trading is recommended, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9]. PVC - **Price**: The PVC09 contract fell 19 yuan to 4745 yuan, and the spot price was 4670 yuan/ton with a basis of - 75 [10]. - **Supply - demand**: The overall start - up rate increased, while downstream demand decreased. Inventories decreased, but the supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists [10]. Polyethylene - **Price**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The basis weakened by 3 yuan/ton [12][13][14]. - **Supply - demand**: The supply side may face pressure from new capacity in Q2, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [14]. Polypropylene - **Price**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The basis weakened by 9 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - demand**: There are planned capacity releases in June, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [15]. PX - **Price**: The PX09 contract fell 94 yuan to 6524 yuan, and the CFR price fell 18 dollars to 824 dollars [17]. - **Supply - demand**: The maintenance season is ending. De - stocking may slow down in June but will resume in Q3 due to new PTA plant startups [17]. PTA - **Price**: The PTA09 contract fell 72 yuan to 4628 yuan, and the spot price fell 30 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - demand**: The supply side is in the maintenance season, and the demand side has low inventory and is expected to continue de - stocking [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price**: The EG09 contract fell 43 yuan to 4306 yuan, and the spot price fell 16 yuan [20]. - **Supply - demand**: The industry is in the de - stocking phase, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season ends [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: After OPEC's production increase in July, the previous negative factors were exhausted. With the threat of wildfires in Canada and rising geopolitical risks, combined with short - term macro - stability, oil prices are strong in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to relatively weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited. The short - term Brent price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range moving up to $65 - 68 per barrel, and the medium - term range is expected to be $63 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - Asphalt: The overall supply - demand pattern is loose. Although the cost of crude oil has increased, the market's acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has a certain upward trend [3][4]. - Liquefied gas: In the international market, the CP price has increased, while the FEI has decreased. In the domestic market, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased the pressure on the market, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. The supply from Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East is expected to decline, while the demand for seasonal power generation is supportive. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [9][11]. - Natural gas: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - PX: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [14][16]. - PTA: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [17][18]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [20][21]. - Short - fiber: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [22][23]. - Bottle - chip: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [24][26]. - Styrene: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [26][27]. - PVC: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, with supply increasing and demand affected by real estate and export uncertainties [29][30]. - Caustic soda: The 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish. Although there is still some support in the short - term, the upward driving force for the spot price is weakening [30][31]. - Plastic and PP: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [32][34]. - Glass: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34][37]. - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [38][40]. - Urea: The daily output is at a high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as international price changes, compound fertilizer production, and export policies. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [41][42]. - Methanol: The international supply is still high, the domestic supply is loose, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. The price is still recommended to be shorted on rebounds [43][45]. - Log: The downstream market is still sluggish, and the long - term market faces challenges from weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory. However, the large scale difference in delivery has a certain supporting effect on the current price [45][48]. - Double - offset paper: The market was weak in May, and in June, short - term technical rebounds may occur, but long - term risks from over - capacity and weak demand need to be vigilant [48][49]. - Corrugated paper: In May, the demand showed structural improvement, but in June, attention should be paid to factors such as the implementation of price - increase policies, export order sustainability, and waste - paper price fluctuations [50]. - Natural rubber: The domestic inventory is still at a high level, and the production index of French rubber machinery has decreased. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [51][54]. - Pulp: The domestic and foreign paper - making industries have shown signs of production reduction, which is negative for the SP single - side. The short - term trading strategy is to try to go long on a small scale [54][56]. - Butadiene rubber: The short - term supply contraction has led to price increases, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the expansion of downstream ABS capacity. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [58][60]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2507 contract settled at $63.41, up $0.89 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%; Brent2508 contract settled at $65.63, up $1.00 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.55%. SC main contract 2507 rose 12.4 to 465 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it rose 4.0 to 469 yuan per barrel [1]. - Related News: The US has asked countries to submit their best trade negotiation plans by Wednesday. The US labor market is showing signs of softening, with an increase in job vacancies but also a large increase in layoffs [1]. - Logic Analysis: After OPEC's production increase, the previous negative factors were exhausted. Geopolitical risks have risen, and the macro - situation is stable in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wide - range oscillation; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are expected to weaken; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2507 closed at 3524 points (+1.21%) in the night session, and BU2509 closed at 3495 points (+1.13%) in the night session. The spot price in Shandong on June 3 was 3470 - 3870 yuan, in the East China region was 3550 - 3620 yuan, and in the South China region was 3360 - 3450 yuan [3]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong rose by 25 yuan per ton. The demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has increased [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is mainly stable. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [6]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2507 closed at 4075 (+0.27%) in the night session, and PG2508 closed at 4004 (+0.18%) in the night session. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong is given [6]. - Related News: The market in South China is generally stable, with some hidden discounts. The market in Shandong is stable with some small increases, and the ether - post - carbon - four market is expected to rise steadily [7]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the CP price has increased, and the FEI has decreased. Domestically, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased market pressure, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 contract closed at 2943 (-0.03%) in the night session, and LU07 closed at 3535 (+1.61%) in the night session. The Singapore paper - futures market's month - to - month spreads are given [9]. - Related News: Russia's exports of some oil products are expected to change in June, and Nigeria's Dangote refinery will import a large amount of US WTI crude oil in July [9]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [11]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread when the price is low [12]. Natural Gas - Market Review: HH contract closed at 3.7 (+0.76%), TTF closed at 35.848 (+2.38%), and JKM closed at 12.345 (+1.69%) [12]. - Logic Analysis: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH on dips; TTF is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6524 (-1.42%) during the day and 6618 (+1.44%) in the night session. The spot price, MOPJ valuation, and PXN spread are given [14]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [15]. - Logic Analysis: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [16]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [16]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4628 (-1.53%) during the day and 4706 (+1.69%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [17]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and a PTA device has restarted [15][18]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [18]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4306 (-0.99%) during the day and 4319 (+0.30%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [18][19]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and some EG devices have restarted or are under maintenance [20]. - Logic Analysis: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [21]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; basis positive spread; sell call options [22]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2507 main contract closed at 6338 (-0.72%) during the day and 6426 (+1.39%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions is given [22]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [23]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [23]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; short PTA and long PF; options are on hold [24]. Bottle - chip - Market Review: PR2507 main contract closed at 5912 (-1.17%) during the day and 5958 (+0.78%) in the night session. The spot price of polyester bottle - chips is given [24]. - Related News: The export quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories are mostly stable [25]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [26]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation consolidation; options are on hold; sell call options [26]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2507 main contract closed at 7018 (-1.71%) during the day and 7133 (+1.64%) in the night session. The spot price and basis in different periods are given [26]. - Related News: The inventory in the East China main port of styrene has increased, and the upstream pure - benzene port inventory has also increased [26]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [27]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation weakly; options are on hold; sell call options [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot price of PVC has slightly decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda in different regions has changed [29]. - Related News: The price of caustic soda in some factories has changed, and the Indian BIS hearing has no news yet [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, and caustic soda's 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go short on caustic soda at high prices and hold short positions on PVC; for arbitrage, arrange a 7 - 9 reverse spread when the spot weakens; options are on hold [32]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: The spot price of LLDPE in different regions has changed, and the spot price of PP in different regions has decreased [32]. - Related News: The maintenance ratio of PE and PP has decreased [33]. - Logic Analysis: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [34]. - Trading Strategy: Short - and medium - term weakness, hold short positions; options are on hold; arbitrage is on hold [34]. Glass - Market Review: The glass futures 09 - contract closed at 954 (-2.85%) during the day and 965 (+1.15%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [34][35]. - Related News: The China May Caixin Manufacturing PMI has contracted, and the price of the domestic float - glass market has decreased slightly. A glass production line has restarted [36]. - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [37]. - Trading Strategy: Price oscillates weakly [38]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda - ash futures 09 - contract closed at 1185 (-1.2%) during the day and 1213 (+2.4%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [38]. - Related News: A soda - ash device has resumed operation, and the domestic soda - ash market is adjusting weakly [39][40]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [40]. - Trading Strategy: Bearish judgment, gradual

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price continued to rise overnight, with the Brent 08 contract up 0.75%. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, but there may be opportunities to short again after the peak season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in. The global oil inventory has increased by 2% since the second quarter, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and its cracking and EFS are expected to weaken. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [20]. - The asphalt industry started destocking in June, and the destocking trend is expected to continue. The BU crack spread may face short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is hard to reverse [21]. - The decline of 6 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas is small. The market has stabilized, and the downward space is limited. The spot surplus pressure has eased, and the futures may have a small basis contraction, but it will maintain a low - level shock [22]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals oscillated weakly overnight. The US economic data this week is in focus, especially the non - farm payrolls on Friday. Gold can be bought on dips with strong support at $3000 [2]. Group 3: Base Metals - Copper prices rose overnight. The White House's tariff policy may increase the expectation of copper tariffs. The LME copper inventory decreased to 143,800 tons, and the spot premium was $50. The KK mine in Congo may resume production at the end of the month. Consider shorting on rebounds or actively rolling over contracts [3]. - Aluminum prices rebounded slightly overnight. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 8,000 tons, and the demand is facing challenges. There is resistance at the key position of 20,300 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4]. - The alumina supply elasticity is large after the profit recovery. The domestic operating capacity increased by 1.3 million tons to 89.3 million tons. It is advisable to short on rallies, and not to chase short when the discount is large [5]. - Zinc demand is in the off - season, and the fundamentals are changing from weak supply and demand to increasing supply and weak demand. Continue to short on rebounds [6]. - The cost support of lead is expected to gradually appear, and the lower support of SHFE lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan/ton [7]. - Nickel prices rebounded, but the stainless - steel market is still in a situation of high supply and weak demand. The nickel iron inventory increased, and the pure nickel and stainless - steel inventories decreased. Short positions can be followed as the nickel price starts to fall [8]. - Tin prices rose overnight. The tin market still has the theme of tight concentrates, but the medium - term trend is downward. Hold short positions at high levels [9]. - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. The market inventory situation shows positive changes. The decline of Australian ore prices has slowed down, and the short - selling momentum has weakened [10]. - The industrial silicon price decreased with reduced positions. The supply is increasing while the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to decline slowly [11]. - The polysilicon futures price decreased with reduced positions. The short - term demand is weak, and the price is expected to change from shock to weak. Pay attention to the support at 34,200 yuan/ton [12]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices rebounded overnight. The demand for rebar is under pressure in the off - season, and the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have improved. The iron - water output is falling, and the negative feedback expectation still exists. The market is expected to rebound with fluctuations [13]. - The iron ore price rose overnight. The global supply has rebounded to a high level, and the domestic arrival volume has increased significantly. The demand is in the off - season, and the iron - water output is declining. The price is expected to be weakly volatile and may make up for the decline [14]. - The coke price rebounded. The iron - water output is falling slightly, and the second round of price cuts for coking has been fully implemented. The overall inventory has increased slightly, and the price support may decline due to the cost reduction of coking coal [15]. - The coking coal price rebounded. The production is still at a high level, the spot auction market is weak, and the terminal inventory is decreasing slightly. The price still has a downward driving force [16]. - The silicon - manganese price rebounded after a sharp decline. The inventory has decreased, but the supply is increasing slightly. The price is still weak [17]. - The silicon - iron price rebounded after a decline. The iron - water output is falling, the demand is fair, the supply is decreasing, and the price is still weak [18]. Group 5: Shipping - The shipping companies are raising the freight rates in late June. The 08 contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a "strong reality, weak expectation" trend. There may be pulse - type market conditions, and there is still room for the 08 contract to rise further. Short - selling in the short term needs to be cautious [19]. Group 6: Chemicals - The urea market is in a weak - shock state. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, the production enterprises are accumulating inventory, and the impact of the new Indian tender is small [23]. - The methanol price continued to rebound with increased positions. The demand from coastal olefin plants has increased, but the port inventory is rising. The coal price is falling, and the cost is under pressure [24]. - The styrene price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation at the main ports in East China and weak downstream demand [25]. - The demand for polyethylene and polypropylene is in the off - season, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The price support from the demand side is limited [26]. - The PVC industry may face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price may oscillate at a low level. The caustic soda market is weakly operating, with high - level supply and inventory pressure [27]. - The PX and PTA prices rebounded slightly with reduced positions. The supply - demand situation of upstream raw materials is gradually under pressure due to weakening demand [28]. - The ethylene glycol price remains weak, and the pressure will gradually appear after June [29]. - The short - fiber price oscillated and rebounded, and attention should be paid to the possibility of processing - margin repair. The bottle - chip market is in the peak - demand season, and the processing margin is low. Consider intervening in the processing - margin repair if production cuts are implemented [30]. Group 7: Building Materials - The glass industry's production capacity has increased slightly, the spot price has decreased, and the futures price is weakly operating. The inventory pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [31]. Group 8: Rubber - The natural rubber supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weakening, the synthetic rubber supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [32]. Group 9: Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price rebounded overnight. The inventory pressure is high, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure at a high level [33]. Group 10: Agricultural Products - The soybean and soybean meal prices lack upward drive. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the demand is relatively cautious. The market is expected to be short - term bearish, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in June - August [34]. - The soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean and palm oil will face pressure from large arrivals, and the overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle [35]. - The Canadian canola futures price has upward drive, but the domestic canola market is affected by the Sino - Canadian trade relationship. It is advisable to reduce long positions and wait and see in the short term [36]. - The domestic soybean price is oscillating. The import supply is abundant, and the price is expected to be affected by weather in the medium term [37]. - The corn price is expected to be weakly volatile. The demand is weak, and the supply will increase with the listing of new wheat [38]. - The pig price is expected to decline in the short term due to increasing supply. In the medium term, the policy aims to stabilize the price, and attention should be paid to the actions of group enterprises [39]. - The egg price is expected to decline further due to increasing supply and the arrival of the off - season. Attention should be paid to the old - hen culling, weather, and feed prices [40]. - The cotton price is advisable to wait and see. The US cotton planting progress is behind, and the domestic cotton market has mixed conditions with some tight - inventory expectations but increasing off - season pressure [41]. - The sugar price is expected to oscillate. The Brazilian production data is mixed, and the domestic sugar market has reduced imports and light inventory pressure [42]. - The apple price is weakly operating. The market demand is decreasing, and the focus is on the new - season yield estimate. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - The wood price has stopped falling and stabilized. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is relatively good in the off - season. The price rebound power is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - The pulp price declined. The port inventory is high, the demand is weak, and the import volume may decline. It is advisable to wait and see or try to go long on significant dips [45]. Group 11: Financial Futures - The stock index futures are expected to be in a high - level shock due to insufficient bullish drive. The uncertainty of geopolitical situation and US trade policy makes investors cautious. Pay attention to positive domestic policy signals [46]. - The treasury bond futures are oscillating. The market is in a narrow - range shock, and there may be long - position opportunities after over - decline. Pay attention to the entry timing of curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [47].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2507 will continue to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Wednesday [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Trends and Views - In the short - term (within a week), the crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be volatile; in the medium - term (two weeks to a month), it will also be volatile; and intraday, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with an overall view of a slightly stronger operation [1] Core Logic - As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the production increase rhythm, with an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. It is speculated that the remaining voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day may be completely cancelled by the end of October. Due to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and increased geopolitical risks, international crude oil futures prices have risen slightly [5]

黄金方面： 隔夜黄金出现幅度较大的回调，但中期调整可能随时展开。美联储在货币政策上的态度，使得市场逐渐疲惫，黄金买盘有走弱迹象。 美国4月可用职位数量从3月的720万个上升至739万个，超出市场预期的710万个，加上持续的招聘和较低失业率，支持了美联储关于劳动力市场"状况良 好"的判断。 原油方面： 隔夜油价继续小幅上扬，涨幅约1%，但大周期疲态已显，谨防日线调整。短期来看油价有一定的季节性需求支撑，但支撑可能有限。 从需求的角度来看，5月28日美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗普政府"对等关税"越权，美国关税政策可能出现转折，直至三季度初，原油需求受关税政策的实际 冲击或降低。 夏季原油需求通常会增加，原因是季节性旅行推高航空燃油和汽油消费，且多个中东国家为满足空调用电需求，而燃烧更多原油发电，这可能为油价提供一 定的支撑。 关税政策的冲击可能会在未来几个月逐步显现，但目前就业市场数据支持美联储暂时按兵不动，投资者可关注本周公布的非农数据。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，近期美联储一直在做预期管理，但并未向市场透露未来降息路径，也并未给出降息的条件，只是强调通胀。 技术面：黄金日线收螺旋线，但未跌破短期均线。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: After China and the US reached a tariff delay agreement, US consumer confidence was significantly boosted, but the improvement in the labor market was limited, and the long - term economic resilience needs further observation. Domestic macro: Manufacturing enterprises' profits and PMI maintained strong resilience. The report maintains the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China, and suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. For domestic assets, the export resilience and the window period of tariff relaxation support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound oscillations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas**: The consumer confidence index jumped from 85.7 to 98.0 in May. Consumers were more optimistic about the economic outlook, but the labor market improvement was limited, and the long - term economic resilience was uncertain. - **Domestic**: From January to April, the total profits of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The export resilience and tariff relaxation window period support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. - **Asset Views**: Maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. The bond market has dip - buying value after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities show short - term range - bound oscillations [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the short - term fiscal end implements established policies. - **Overseas**: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: There are external positives, and changes should be dealt with cautiously. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility is further suppressed. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Risk appetite rises, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market is suppressed. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Pay attention to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The demand expectation is pessimistic, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output decreased slightly, and the price oscillated. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Coke**: The off - season deepened, and the second round of price cuts was implemented. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - **Coking Coal**: The supply pressure remained high, and there was little support below. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other varieties such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price oscillated at a high level. The short - term judgment is range - bound increase. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking the mining license was not finalized, and the alumina futures oscillated at a high level. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other non - ferrous metal varieties such as aluminum, zinc, and lead also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There were more macro disturbances, and the supply pressure remained. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **LPG**: The demand continued to weaken, and LPG maintained a weak range - bound oscillation. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other energy and chemical varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil also have corresponding market logics, and the short - term judgments vary from range - bound decline to range - bound increase [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - **Pork**: The expectation of inventory reduction drove the futures price of pork to rebound. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - **Rubber**: The warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and NR rebounded strongly. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - Other agricultural products such as cotton, sugar, and logs also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [9].

报告日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：制造业 PMI 回升 国家统计局公布数据显示，5 月份，我国制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点。非制造业 PMI 为 50.3%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。综合 PMI 为 50.4%， 比上月上升 0.2 个百分点。新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为 47.5%和 47.1%， 比上月上升 2.8 和 3.7 个百分点。调查中部分涉美企业反映外贸订单加速重启， 进出口情况有所改善。美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示， 将把进口钢铁的关税从 25%提高至 50%，该决定从 6 月 4 日（周三）起生效。对 此，欧盟委员会发布声明称，目前正在就扩大反制措施进行最终磋商。美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 为 48.5，为 2024 年 11 月以来新低，预期 49.5，前值 48.7。美 国 5 月标普全球制造业 PMI 终值为 52，初值 52.3。标普全球称，美国 5 月销售 费用通胀达到 2022 年末以来的最高水平。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、股指 原油：周末乌克兰袭击俄罗斯推动油价上涨。美国一 ...