证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 股债商短期走高 "向内看"下市场走出阶段性行情 【20250602-20250608】 核心观点 大类资产总览：股债商短期缓幅上行。 本周，A 股整体呈现上行趋势，在国际重大事件进入博弈期， 场内投资者再度将目光转移至国内，在相对温和平稳的宏观 经济数据带动下，权益市场预期向好，并在"苏超"、5G、 创新药等短期概念的推动下，走出阶段性积极态势。而债市 则在阶段性震荡后再度回稳上行，当前市场仍处于波动期， 部分投资者对债市的青睐仍未结束，市场仍有意愿延续防御 姿态，在此背景下，高位震荡或将是债市进入六月后的主要 走势。大宗商品市场触底反弹，贵金属的强势反弹，以及金 属、能化的波段震荡，或是大宗商品短期回暖上行的主要原 因。 本周 A 股观点：科技板块短期有望成为主线行情。 本周 A 股表现较好，持续上行。具体来看，短期内，权益市 场外部表现平稳，中美贸易竞争相关事项已从情绪期步入稳 定期，后续仍需关注中美谈判核心表现。因此，场内投资者 关注目标正在从国际转向国内，宏观经济数据、短期热点事 项或将成为影响市场的主要推手。 A 股配置建议：短期来看， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, along with their core driving logics [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [5][6] - **Core Logic**: Optimistic expectations of Sino - US trade continue to ferment, enhancing the expectation of good US soybean exports. Seasonally, US soybean futures are in a sensitive period for weather themes and tend to rise. The trading logic of the soybean market comes from the increase in import costs, but the rebound will face domestic fundamental suppression. It fluctuates with US soybean futures intraday and mainly moves in a weakly oscillating manner [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏强; Reference view:震荡偏强 [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Attention is paid to the impact of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board report on the market. Before the report, the market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory to increase for three consecutive months, pressuring the rebound of palm oil futures. The export competition between Indonesia and Malaysia continues. In China, as palm oil purchases increase, domestic supply is supplemented, and the palm oil inventory rises from a low level. The entire oil and fat sector stops falling and rebounds, and palm oil maintains a weakly bullish oscillating trend in the short term [7] Soybean Oil (Not elaborated in detail in the given text, only listed in the table) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏强; Reference view:震荡偏强 [6] - **Core Logic**: Related to US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that despite policy tightening pressures in the first half of 2025, the U.S. stock market is expected to enter a more optimistic scenario in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [1] Economic Outlook - The firm does not foresee a recession but anticipates seven interest rate cuts in 2026, which will support above-average valuations [1] - The S&P 500 index target price is set at 6,500 points for the next 12 months, corresponding to an earnings per share (EPS) of $302 and a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.5 times [1] - Projected EPS for 2025 is $259 (7% growth), for 2026 is $283 (9% growth), and for 2027 is $321 (13% growth) [1] Industry Allocation - **Overweight Sectors**: Financials, Energy, and Utilities are rated as overweight. The financial sector is expected to see a recovery in M&A and capital market transactions by 2028, with potential for accelerated stock buybacks due to regulatory easing [3] - The energy sector is linked to oil price movements, with geopolitical tensions potentially disrupting supply and raising prices. The sector's free cash flow (FCF) margins are significantly above historical averages [3] - Utilities historically perform well in late-cycle phases due to their defensive characteristics and are expected to benefit from rising interest rates and energy capacity concerns [3] Neutral Sectors - Technology, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Real Estate, and Industrials are maintained at neutral. The technology sector shows significant internal differentiation, with AI-related stocks performing well, while hardware faces challenges from weak consumer demand [4] Underweight Sectors - Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples are rated for reduction due to poor pricing power and tariff risks. The consumer products sector faces significant cost pressures, with tariffs impacting EBITDA margins by 10% to 70% [4]

新浪科技讯 6月9日下午消息，今日，转转集团旗下首家二手多品类循环仓店"超级转转"正式开业。据 悉，"超级转转"位于北京友谊商店三层，占地面积超3000平方米，200余品类，30000余SKU，是一家集 二手箱包、鞋服、首饰腕表、游戏设备等在内的多品类循环仓店，也是国内首家二手多品类循环仓店。 2022年11月，转转1亿美元投资红布林，并在两年后全资收购红布林。基于并购红布林后带来的丰富货 源，背靠专业的奢侈品鉴定和多品类质检能力，新模式的"超级转转"应运而生。 黄炜讲，"超级转转是转转跟红布林整合之后的第一个作品，这个作品完全不是为了纯增长，是在创造 一个新的东西。"他具体谈到，"红布林的加入为转转变成一个琳琅满目百类千品的二奢起到非常重要的 作用。" 黄炜讲，"今天转转其实想做的事情是让更多的消费者去享受二手循环经济，我们采用C2B2C的方式， 投入很多的质检人员，才能够保证有更多的品类加入进去。我更看好C2B2C，更看好一个靠谱的二手这 样的销售平台，我们也会努力做好这件事情。"（闫妍） 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 开业仪式后，转转集团创始人兼CEO黄炜向新浪科技等介绍，"我们有这个想法其实已经很长的 ...

2012 31 2025-06-09 | G国贸期货 | | --- | | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品探底回升，小幅反弹，其中，工业品探底回升，农产品小幅震荡。主因一是，随着价格的持续走弱，黑色系供给端减产消息扰动增多，空头止盈 | | | 带动盘面反弹；二是，地缘政治因素反复，国际油价有所回升；三是，关税战缓和带动基本金属上涨。 | | 海外 | 1）美国5月ISM制造业PMI指数为48.5，不及预期和前值。订单量连续第四个月萎缩，进口指数创2009年以来新低，出口指数创五年新低，物价支付指数仍高企。5 | | | 月美国ISM制造业PMI连续第三个月萎缩，创2023年11月以来新低，凸显行业整体动能持续弱化。2）美国5月新增非农就业13.9万人，高于预期；5月失业率4.2%， | | | 与预期持平；本次非农数据高于预期，失业率也未上行，就业市场依旧稳健，由于关税潜在的通胀作用，美联储大概率将会继续观望，6月FOMC会议上美联储会 | | | 保持现有的利率水平不变。基准情形下，美联储或将于4季度开启降息，全年降息1-2次，降息幅度则有可能超过 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着中美贸易关系释放乐观信号，美豆出口向好的预期不断增强。从季节性的角度来看，美豆 期价已然步入天气题材的敏感时段，今夏美国大豆产区潜在的极端天气风险仍在持续发酵，美豆期价将保 持易涨难跌走势。目前豆粕市场的交易逻辑主要依赖于进口成本，并非国内市场。短期豆粕期价仍将跟随 外盘美豆期价，延续阶段性反弹走势。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 ...

Core Insights - The successful issuance of a data intellectual property pledge loan in digital RMB by Zhejiang International Oil and Gas Trading Center marks the first instance of such a loan in Zhejiang Province, highlighting the innovative application of digital currency in financing [1][2] - This initiative aligns with national strategies for digital economy development and the promotion of digital RMB, reflecting the rapid growth of the digital economy in Zhejiang Province [1][2] Group 1: Company Initiatives - Zhejiang International Oil and Gas Trading Center has actively responded to national and provincial calls to enhance data elements and explore their potential value [1] - The center has developed a "Zhoushan Price" index system since 2021, focusing on the release of price indices related to bonded fuel oil [1] Group 2: Financial Innovation - The pledge financing focuses on key outcomes of the "Zhoushan Price" system, specifically the "China Zhoushan Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Bonded Bunker Supply Quotation Data" and two other price indices [1] - The loan was issued in digital RMB, demonstrating the value of data elements as assessed by the China Construction Bank's Free Trade Zone branch [1] Group 3: Future Prospects - The successful issuance of the digital RMB data intellectual property pledge loan is seen as a significant step in activating the potential of data elements and enriching the application scenarios of digital RMB in bulk commodity settlements [2] - The center plans to leverage this success to further explore and expand the application scenarios of digital RMB in bulk commodity trading, enhancing its platform capabilities and financial service offerings [2]

行业专家刘宇详细介绍了大宗商品市场创新的逻辑和方向。对产能预售及订单交易的实质、误区、流动 性、关键点等进行详细拆解。在他看来，大宗商品市场创新的方向应以成为链接多元的综合服务平台为 导向。 山东港口投控集团期现事业部市场总监冯益朋以现货交易平台目前开展的产能预售和订单交易为案例， 对交易模式进行了详细的剖析。他表示，近期国家出台的各项政策越来越贴近大宗商品市场发展的需 求，在严监管下，交易平台要不断探索、研讨、实践，把握政策机遇，找准创新方向。 5月27日，由期货日报主办、期报文化传媒（北京）有限公司（下称期报传媒）承办的"产能预售及订单 交易合规创新研讨会"于山东青岛顺利召开。此次研讨会备受行业关注，大宗商品现货交易中心、产业 电商平台、清算机构等二十多家企业的高管参加。 期报传媒总经理金影影为研讨会致辞。她表示："期报传媒作为行业发声平台、市场建设推手，聚焦大 宗商品现货、期现结合、供应链金融等领域的健康发展，通过组织专题研讨会的形式，促进行业之间沟 通学习，希望更多大宗商品平台可以融入交易模式创新的大趋势中，共同推动现货市场高质量发展。" 山东交易市场清算所有限公司常务副总裁余东新对清算机构的功能发挥 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongying Group, a commodity trading firm with only 23 employees, is accelerating its IPO process after filing its updated prospectus with the SEC, aiming to raise up to $10 million despite a significant revenue decline in 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Tongying Group reported revenues of $595 million, a 24.2% decrease from $784 million in 2023, while net profit increased to $810,000, a 14.57% year-over-year growth, resulting in a net profit margin of only 0.14% [1][5]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows a drastic decline in ethylene glycol sales, which fell by 90.9%, contributing only 4.6% to total revenue, down from 38.6% in 2023 [3][4]. - Despite the overall revenue decline, the company saw an 11.7% increase in PTA sales and a remarkable 973.2% growth in corn sales, which now account for 10% of total revenue [5]. Group 2: Business Model and Market Position - Tongying Group operates as a middleman in the commodity trading sector, primarily generating revenue from trading chemical products, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products, without providing transportation or storage services [2][3]. - The company has a concentrated product portfolio, with PTA and ethylene glycol accounting for 94% of its revenue in 2023, which poses risks due to price volatility in the cyclical chemical industry [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Challenges - The company faces significant challenges in diversifying its product offerings, as its revenue concentration in PTA has increased to 84.3% in 2024, raising potential risks [6]. - To enhance market competitiveness, Tongying Group plans to establish a dedicated trading team for chemical futures and develop an automated warehouse by 2027, which requires substantial funding [7]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company reported current assets of $1.356 million and current liabilities of $1.846 million, resulting in a current ratio of only 0.73, indicating tight liquidity [7].

中国发展网讯 记者施文郁报道 近日，辽宁省政府印发《关于借鉴推广中国（辽宁）自由贸易试验区第 八批改革创新经验的通知》（辽政发〔2025〕12号），面向全省推广辽宁自贸试验区第八批28项改革创 新经验做法，主要包括政府职能转变、贸易便利化、产业转型升级、扩大开放、参与国际标准制定等5 个领域。大连自贸片区选送的13项经验入选，占比46%，位列首位。 自挂牌以来，大连自贸片区始终坚持以制度创新为核心，以可复制可推广为基本要求，大胆试、大胆 闯、自主改，推出了一系列标志性、引领性制度创新成果，有效发挥了改革开放综合试验平台作用。截 至目前，已有9项创新经验在全国复制推广，114项创新经验在全省复制推广。 下一步，大连自贸片区将继续解放思想、守正创新，深入实施自贸试验区提升战略，在更广领域、更深 层次开展探索。对接高标准国际经贸规则，深入推进制度型开放，以开放促改革、促发展、促创新，更 好发挥改革开放"试验田"作用。 据悉，政府职能转变领域经验7项，大连自贸片区选送的企业全生命周期服务、主动披露便企平台2项入 选。贸易便利化领域经验7项，该区选送的"数智筛"海关税收智能分析、矿产品混配监管新模式、进口 食品《入境货 ...