光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心继续回落，其中 WTI 5 月合约收盘下跌 1.29 美元至 60.70 美元/桶，跌幅 2.08%。布伦特 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.37 美元 | | | | 至 64.21 美元/桶，跌幅 2.09%。SC2505 以 477.4 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 32.7 元/桶，跌幅为 6.41%。上周美国超预期关税政策引发市场巨 | | | | 震，周一开盘原油直接封住跌停，夜盘低开。美国总统表示，尽 | | | 原油 | 管渴望避免征税的贸易伙伴纷纷递出橄榄枝但自己并不考虑暂停 | 震荡 | | | 全面实施对等关税，不过他同时也对一些谈判发出了持开放态度 | | | | 的信号。市场担心特朗普关税可能导致企业价格上涨、从而使美 | | | | 国经济活动放缓，最终损害石油需求。当前关税政策的不确定性 | | | | 令市场恐慌情绪加重，同时波动率也大幅提升，但需求冲击的预 | | | | 期下，原油价格来看仍存在走 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心冲高回落，其中 WTI 5 月合约收盘下跌 0.28 美元至 | | | | 71.20 美元/桶，跌幅 0.39%。布伦特新换 6 月合约收盘下跌 0.28 | | | | 美元至 74.49 美元/桶，跌幅 0.37%。SC2505 以 553.3 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 4.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.78%。宏观方面，市场担心美国政府即 | | | | 将宣布的全面对等关税政策可能令全球贸易战局势恶化。API 数 | | | | 据显示，截至 3 月 28 日当周，美国 API 原油库存增加 603.7 万 | | | | 桶，之前一周减少 459.9 万桶。API 库欣原油库存增加 224.4 万桶， | | | 原油 | 前值减少 61 万桶。API 成品油汽油库存减少 162.8 万桶、馏分油 | 震荡 | | | 库存-1.1 万桶。原油库存累库亦对价格有所施压。当前，对俄罗 | | | | 斯石油实施次 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Basic Chemical Industry: Continuous Increase in Urea Price [1] - Report Date: March 30, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Shuxian, CFA [1] - Research Assistant: Zhou Shaowen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the weekly data of the basic chemical industry, including the price and profit changes of various chemical products, as well as the performance of related listed companies [2][8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance** - The basic chemical index had a 0.0% change in the past week, 0.9% in the past month, 2.8% in the past three months, 9.6% in the past year, and 5.3% since the beginning of 2025 [8] - Among related companies, Satellite Chemical had a significant increase in stock price, with a 7.2% increase in the past week, 6.8% in the past month, 23.9% in the past three months, and 38.1% in the past year [8] - The report also provides the profit tracking data of related companies, including total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB [8] - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - The average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI this week were 17,870 yuan/ton, 16,280 yuan/ton, and 11,983 yuan/ton respectively, with a week-on-week change of -170 yuan/ton, -420 yuan/ton, and +18 yuan/ton [2][8] - The corresponding gross profits were 3,971 yuan/ton, 3,407 yuan/ton, and 199 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week change of -100 yuan/ton, -336 yuan/ton, and -44 yuan/ton [2][8] - **Oil, Gas, and Olefin Industry Chain** - The average prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha this week were 1,531 yuan/ton, 4,523 yuan/ton, 540 yuan/ton, and 4,593 yuan/ton respectively, with a week-on-week change of -34 yuan/ton, +165 yuan/ton, +0 yuan/ton, and +35 yuan/ton [2][8] - The theoretical profits of ethylene production from ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking were 1,162 yuan/ton, 2,055 yuan/ton, and -197 yuan/ton respectively, with a week-on-week change of +76 yuan/ton, +47 yuan/ton, and -4 yuan/ton [2][8] - The theoretical profits of propylene production from PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking were -333 yuan/ton, 1,610 yuan/ton, and -453 yuan/ton respectively, with a week-on-week change of -159 yuan/ton, +0 yuan/ton, and -49 yuan/ton [2][8] - **Coal Chemical Industry Chain** - The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid this week were 2,671 yuan/ton, 1,905 yuan/ton, 4,150 yuan/ton, and 2,642 yuan/ton respectively, with a week-on-week change of -29 yuan/ton, +64 yuan/ton, +110 yuan/ton, and -25 yuan/ton [2][10] - The corresponding gross profits were 725 yuan/ton, 218 yuan/ton, -291 yuan/ton, and 12 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week change of +50 yuan/ton, +68 yuan/ton, +213 yuan/ton, and -28 yuan/ton [2][10] 2. Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trend** - Not provided in the report - **2.2 Polyurethane Sector** - The report shows the price and profit trends of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI [2][8] - **2.3 Oil, Gas, and Olefin Sector** - It presents the price trends of raw materials such as ethane, propane, and naphtha, as well as the profit comparison of different production processes [2][8] - **2.4 Coal Chemical Sector** - The report shows the price and profit trends of coal chemical products such as synthetic ammonia, urea, and DMF [2][10]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 化学原料 宝丰能源(600989) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 12 日 原料下行助力盈利改善，内蒙古投产产能弹性显著 ——宝丰能源点评报告 事件： ❑ 公司发布 2024 年年报，全年实现营收 329.8 亿元（yoy+13%），归母净利润 63.4 亿元 （yoy+12%），其中 Q4 单季度营收 87.1 亿元（yoy-0%，qoq+18%），归母净利润 18.0 亿元（yoy+2%，qoq+46%）。 点评： ❑ 盈利预测与估值 公司是国内煤制烯烃行业龙头， 成本护城河显著，随着公司内蒙古基地等项目投 产，业绩弹性显著。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年 归 母 净 利 润 为 113.96/132.50/154.39 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 速 分 别 为 +79.81%/+16.27%/+16.53%，对应当前股价 PE 分别为 11/9/8 倍， 维持 "买入"评级。 ❑ 风险提示 原材料价格大幅波动风险，产品需求不及预期风险，新项目投产不及预期风险 财务摘要 | [Table_Forcast] (百万元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Baofeng Energy [3] Core Views - Baofeng Energy is positioned as a leader in coal-to-olefins, with a focus on developing a circular economy industrial chain [9] - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual production ramp-up of its Inner Mongolia project, which will significantly enhance its production capacity and revenue [9][16] - The report anticipates an improvement in profit margins due to declining raw material costs and increased production efficiency [9][18] Financial Performance - In 2024, Baofeng Energy achieved a total revenue of 32.983 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.21% [2][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.338 billion yuan, up 12.16% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 6.780 billion yuan, increasing by 13.97% [2][9] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 8.708 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.30% year-on-year, but a significant increase of 46.16% quarter-on-quarter [2][9] Production and Capacity - The company’s olefin segment generated revenue of 19.266 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 58.41% of total revenue, while the coking segment contributed 10.110 billion yuan, making up 30.65% [16] - The Inner Mongolia project is expected to increase the company's olefin production capacity to 5.2 million tons per year, making it the largest coal-to-olefins project globally [9][12] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the domestic demand for polyolefins is expected to grow, although at a slower pace due to macroeconomic factors [20][23] - The coking industry is facing challenges with weak demand, particularly from the steel sector, leading to a decline in coking prices [33][34] Cost Structure and Profitability - The average procurement price for thermal coal in 2024 was 414.22 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10.88% year-on-year, which is expected to benefit the company's cost structure [9][18] - The overall gross margin for the company improved to 33.15% in 2024, up 2.75 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 19.22% [18][9] Future Outlook - The report projects that the net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 10.75 billion yuan, 12.60 billion yuan, and 13.88 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][7] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are forecasted to be 1.47 yuan, 1.72 yuan, and 1.89 yuan, indicating a positive growth trajectory [9][7]