策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.24） 商品期货和期权 养殖、畜牧及软商品板块 品种：生猪 日内观点：延续上涨 中期观点：阶段性反弹后维持偏弱运行 参考策略：逢高沽空 核心逻辑： 1、供应方面，从生猪出栏体重来看，据钢联数据统计，截至 6 月 20 日，当 周全国生猪出栏均重为 123.78kg，较上一周下跌 0.18 公斤。由于政策影响，叠加 气温的不断升高，规模企业逐步开始降重，且降重节奏有所加快，同时市场对于猪 肉的消化能力有限，抑制大猪的成交节奏。后续随着气温的不断上升，毛猪料比增 加，生长速度放缓，叠加夏日大猪需求进入传统淡季，企业降重速度将持续加快。 策略早餐 品种：白糖 日内观点：企稳反弹 2、需求方面，从屠宰端来说，据钢联数据统计，6 月 20 日当周屠宰开工率 28.13%，与上一周小幅上涨。当周养殖端出栏积极性不高，生猪供应平稳，但部分 地区为促进消费进行促销活动，开工率小幅提升。目前已进入夏季，天气炎热，居 民对于猪肉的消费热情不高，终端市场需求整体表现较为低迷。尽管屠宰企业开工 率有所上升，但由于需求不足，限制了开工率进一步大幅增长。 3、综合来看，短期在政策性影响、二育 ...

证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-24 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 2648.11 | | 52 周最高 | 2838.04 | | 行业相对指数表现 | | --- | 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《生猪供应压力大，5 月产能惯性增加》 - 2025.06.17 农林牧渔行业报告 （2025.6.15-2025.6.22） 生猪偏弱震荡，政策调控影响或在明年体现 ⚫ 行情回顾：大幅调整 农林牧渔（申万）行业指数跌 3.13%，在申万 31 个一级行业中涨 幅排名第 26 位。上周农业板块大幅下挫，核心板块全线下跌。调控 政策频出，但市场表现较为平静，对后市持观望态度。 ⚫ 猪：价格震荡下跌，调控政策频出 猪价延续跌势。截至 6 月 22 日，全国生猪均价 13.93 元/公斤， 较上周微跌，但已是月内第二次跌破 14 元大关。仔猪价格亦明显下 滑，本周 15KG 仔猪均价跌至 400 元/头，较年内 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-24 策略 谨慎偏空 出栏略有减少，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13980元/吨，较前交易日变动+85.00元/吨，幅度+0.61%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.72元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.16元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+740，较前交易日变动+305；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 14.82元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.07元/公斤，现货基差LH09+840，较前交易日变动+75；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09-230，较前交易日变动+15。 据农业农村部监测，6月23日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.60，比上周五上升0.05个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为112.60，比上周五上升0.05个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.08元/公斤，比上周五下降1.2%； 牛肉64.01元/公斤，比上周五上升0.2%；羊肉59.58元/公斤，比上周五上升0.2%；鸡蛋7.34元/公斤，比上周五上升 0.8%；白条鸡16.88元/公斤，比 ...

生猪日报 | 2025-06-24 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 1、6月23日，生猪注册仓单750手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现下降重利好后市影响震荡 偏强运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓945手，持仓约7.71万手，最高价14010元/ 吨，最低价13925元/吨，收盘于13980元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢，供应压力尚未完全释放；②后续 出栏量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限； 多头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格韧性强，说 明供需不像空头想的那么宽松； ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles highlights the transformation of traditional livestock farming in Guoluo Tibetan Village through e-commerce and live streaming, enabling local products to reach a broader market [1][2] - The village has established a modern live streaming base, where local products such as yak and sheep meat are promoted effectively, leading to increased sales and engagement from the youth [1] - The introduction of e-commerce has significantly improved the sales channels for high-quality local products, which were previously limited due to geographical constraints [1] Group 2 - Since 2021, the State Grid Haibei Power Supply Company has enhanced the village's electrical infrastructure, including the installation of 450 meters of 10 kV lines and upgrading transformer capacity to support local businesses [2] - The village is diversifying its economy with multiple industries, including red education, specialty tourism, efficient livestock farming, and beer brewing, contributing to a thriving local economy [2] - By 2024, the average income of poverty alleviation households in Guoluo Tibetan Village is projected to exceed 19,817.5 yuan, with collective economic income surpassing 800,000 yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The innovative financial service model combining government, insurance, guarantee, banking, and industry has effectively addressed the challenges faced by the beef cattle industry in Yangxin County, enhancing risk protection and financing support for local farmers [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Yangxin County, known for its leading beef cattle slaughter volume in China, faces significant challenges such as disease outbreaks, natural disasters, and market price fluctuations, which complicate financing due to long breeding cycles and slow capital turnover [3][4]. - The lack of collateral for loans has made financing difficult and expensive for cattle farmers, exacerbating the industry's development bottlenecks [3]. Group 2: Financial Service Model - The Shandong branch of PICC has developed a comprehensive financial service model that integrates government support, insurance products, and banking services, creating a financing loop that enhances credit through agricultural insurance policies [3][4][6]. - This model has led to the creation of a risk protection service covering the entire lifecycle of beef cattle, from breeding to market, including innovative insurance products such as medical insurance and price index insurance [4][6]. Group 3: Impact and Results - From 2023 to 2024, the insurance coverage has reached 8,652 cattle, providing a risk protection amount of 139 million yuan and facilitating over 150 million yuan in financing loans [6]. - The financial support has strengthened the entire beef cattle industry in Binzhou, resulting in improved quality, significant income increases for farmers, and a robust internal driving force for sustainable development [6].

Group 1 - Jiangsu's 11th batch of aid personnel has begun a new three-year mission in Tibet, following the successful completion of the 10th batch [1] - The collaboration between Jiangsu and Lhasa has created a strong industrial community, with initiatives like the "Dazi Danyang Eyewear City" bringing industry expertise from Jiangsu to Tibet [1] - The eyewear market in Lhasa is responding to local health needs, as the region has a high incidence of eye diseases due to strong UV radiation [1] Group 2 - The "Dazi Danyang Eyewear City" has provided training opportunities for over ten Tibetan employees, transforming their career prospects and increasing their income significantly [2] - A flower horticulture demonstration base established by Jiangsu's Taizhou aid team has introduced advanced techniques and technologies, enhancing the local flower industry [2] - Jiangsu's aid efforts have shifted from merely providing resources to fostering self-sufficiency in Tibet, with over 3,500 local professionals trained and numerous investment promotion activities conducted [2] Group 3 - Various agricultural and industrial projects in Tibet, such as cattle breed improvement and smart greenhouses, are yielding significant economic benefits and transforming local livelihoods [3] - A total of 312 investment projects have been initiated, with an agreement for 593 billion yuan in investments, making Jiangsu the leading province in terms of actual funds allocated for aid projects in Tibet [3] - The initiatives have created over 1,000 jobs and helped lift more than 2,800 impoverished individuals out of poverty [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shaanxi province is focusing on enhancing the agricultural industry by extending the industrial chain, improving the supply chain, and increasing the value chain to boost agricultural quality, efficiency, and competitiveness, aiming to add 8 national-level and 120 provincial-level leading enterprises this year [1][2] Group 1: Key Industry Initiatives - The livestock sector aims to stabilize production capacity, particularly focusing on the pig industry with a target to maintain the breeding sow stock at around 750,000 heads [1] - Vegetable supply will be prioritized, with efforts to increase production in 8 supply guarantee base counties and improve quality in 11 high-altitude vegetable base counties, alongside the construction of 100,000 acres of new agricultural facilities [1] - The fruit industry will focus on quality enhancement by establishing 100 high-quality and efficient demonstration orchards [1] Group 2: Project and Enterprise Development - Shaanxi is implementing lifecycle management for 200 key industrial chain projects to ensure early completion, production, and effectiveness [1] - The province is actively engaging in招商 (investment attraction) activities in regions like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta, progressing with 31 signed project constructions [1] - A three-year action plan for the gradient cultivation of agricultural enterprises has been launched, aiming to build a database of quality enterprises and foster a range of specialized, high-tech, and "chain master" enterprises [1] Group 3: Support Services - The province is enhancing support for agricultural business financing through mechanisms like the "Shaanong Loan" risk compensation product to address financing challenges [2] - Efforts are underway to establish a provincial-level agricultural product processing technology service system and promote new agricultural productivity in the Yangling arid region [2] - Future plans include strengthening demand matching and improving service quality to build a modern agricultural high-quality development system unique to Shaanxi [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu is actively promoting modern agriculture through the establishment and optimization of industrial parks, aiming for high-quality development and significant economic contributions from these parks in 2024. Group 1: Industrial Park Development - Chengdu has created 3 national modern agricultural industrial parks, with 9 key parks projected to achieve a total output value of 405 billion and operating revenue exceeding 442 billion in 2024, contributing to an increase in the primary industry value added to 540.1 billion [1] - The city is focusing on optimizing and enhancing the agricultural sector by integrating various agricultural industries into the parks, including high-quality grain, green vegetables, specialty fruits, and livestock [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Industry Focus - Chengdu's agricultural output is expected to reach 234.56 million tons of grain and a total agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery output value of 970 billion in 2024 [2] - The city is enhancing its competitive edge by developing specialized agricultural products and creating demonstration parks for integrated development, with a focus on organic geographical indication products [2] Group 3: Enterprise Concentration and Support - Chengdu is implementing a comprehensive project management mechanism to attract significant investments, with 26 major projects planned and 37 key projects targeted for chain enhancement [3] - The city is fostering a supportive environment for enterprises by establishing a "one enterprise, one policy" support system and increasing the number of key enterprises in the agricultural sector [3] Group 4: Technological Innovation and Smart Agriculture - Chengdu is leveraging its agricultural technology innovation center to enhance collaboration between research institutions and industrial parks, achieving over 98% coverage of quality seeds in major crops and 88% mechanization in farming [4] - The city is developing a digital service system for agriculture, including smart farming technologies and a digital platform for agricultural services [5]

重要内容提示: ● 被担保人名称：天乾食品有限公司（以下简称"天乾食品"）、武汉天益畜牧有限公司（以下简称"武 汉天益"）、武汉天乾农牧有限公司（以下简称"武汉天乾"）、武穴市强大牧业有限公司（以下简称"武 穴牧业"）、宜昌天域农牧有限公司（以下简称"宜昌天域"）、宜都天乾农牧有限公司（以下简称"宜都 天乾"）、宜都天乾农牧有限公司麻城分公司（以下简称"宜都天乾麻城分"），以上统称"天乾食品及其 下属子公司" ● 是否为上市公司关联人：否 ● 本次担保金额及已实际为其提供的担保余额：本次担保金额合计为不超过人民币1,800.00万元，本次 担保前公司对天乾食品、武汉天乾、宜昌天域、宜都天乾、宜都天乾麻城分的担保余额分别为人民币 1,000.00万元、1,368.00万元、3,243.55万元、133.70万元、523.57万元，对其他下属子公司的担保余额为 0万元。 ● 本次担保不存在反担保 ● 公司及控股子公司不存在逾期担保的情形 ● 特别风险提示：本次被担保人天乾食品、宜昌天域、宜都天乾麻城分为资产负债率超过70%的控股子 公司，敬请投资者注意相关风险。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 ...