证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 5 月我国非美出口展现韧性，重视非美出口 枢纽小商品城的战略地位 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [周观点（注：文中"本周"指的 Table_Summary] 6 月 9 日至 6 月 15 日） 2025 年 06 月 16 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600123070017 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -4% 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 38% 45% 52% 6/17/2024 10/15/2024 2/12/2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade demonstrates strong resilience and vitality amid external pressures, with policies effectively supporting enterprises and achieving both quantity and quality growth in trade [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first five months of this year, China's total goods trade value reached 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [2][4]. - Private enterprises accounted for 10.25 trillion yuan of the total trade, growing by 7% and representing 57.1% of China's foreign trade value, an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][6]. - In May alone, the total goods trade value was 3.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.7% [2]. Group 2: Market Diversification - China's trade with emerging markets has contributed significantly to growth, with imports and exports to Belt and Road countries increasing by 4.2%, ASEAN by 9.1%, and Africa by 12.4% [2][3]. - Trade with African countries reached a historical high, with imports and exports totaling 963.21 billion yuan, accounting for 5.4% of China's total trade [2][3]. Group 3: Product Quality and Innovation - The export of electromechanical products reached 6.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, making up 60% of total exports [4]. - High-tech and high-value-added products are becoming increasingly competitive, with integrated circuits growing by 18.9% and electric vehicles by 19% [4]. Group 4: Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises have become a crucial force in China's foreign trade, with their exports growing by 8% and accounting for 65.4% of total exports [6][7]. - The number of private enterprises engaged in foreign trade has surpassed 609,000, marking a significant increase in their participation [6][7]. Group 5: Government Support and Local Initiatives - The government emphasizes policies to stabilize foreign trade, including financial support and market expansion initiatives [7][8]. - Local governments are actively launching programs to enhance the capabilities of foreign trade enterprises, such as Sichuan's "Hundred Enterprises Navigation" initiative and Shandong's "Ten Thousand Enterprises Going Global" plan [8].

Core Insights - Hubei Province's foreign trade continues to show high growth, with a total import and export value of 328.74 billion RMB in the first five months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.9% [1][2] Group 1: Trade Performance - Exports reached 238.37 billion RMB, a significant increase of 36.3%, while imports totaled 90.37 billion RMB, growing by 7.4% [1] - Private enterprises have become the main driving force behind Hubei's foreign trade growth, accounting for 70.9% of the total import and export value, with a year-on-year increase of 31.1% [2] - The general trade method accounted for 80.6% of the total trade, with a value of 264.96 billion RMB, showing a growth of 36.5% [3] Group 2: Trade Partners and Markets - ASEAN and the EU are Hubei's top two trading partners, with import and export values of 78.21 billion RMB and 41.05 billion RMB, reflecting increases of 64.3% and 41.6% respectively [3] - Exports to emerging markets such as India and Brazil also saw significant growth, increasing by 34.3% and 14.4% respectively [3] Group 3: Regional Contributions - Wuhan City led the province with an import and export value of 178.77 billion RMB, accounting for 54.4% of the total [3] - Other cities like Huangshi, Yichang, and Xiangyang also contributed significantly, with respective import and export values of 30.82 billion RMB, 21.12 billion RMB, and 19.96 billion RMB [3] Group 4: Export and Import Structure - The export of electromechanical products reached 120.59 billion RMB, growing by 23%, making up over half of the total exports [4] - Major imports included bulk commodities, with a total import value of 29.93 billion RMB, representing over 30% of total imports, and significant increases in copper ore and coal imports [4]

Group 1: Overall Trade Performance - In the first five months of this year, Shaanxi's total import and export value reached 202.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, outpacing the national growth rate of 3.5% [1] - Exports amounted to 141.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, with a trade surplus of 80.74 billion yuan during the same period [1] - General trade saw significant growth, with a total import and export value of 82.49 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Trade by Region - Shaanxi's imports and exports with ASEAN reached 34.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.1% [1] - Trade with Taiwan surged by 67.7% to 24.73 billion yuan, while trade with the EU grew by 30.1% to 24.36 billion yuan [1] - Exports to the United States totaled 11.25 billion yuan, indicating a stable trade relationship [1] Group 3: Trade by Enterprise Type - Foreign-invested enterprises accounted for 118.07 billion yuan in imports and exports, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, representing 58.2% of the total [1] - Private enterprises contributed 70.03 billion yuan, making up 34.5% of the total trade [1] - State-owned enterprises saw a significant increase in trade, with a total of 13.98 billion yuan, up 23.4% year-on-year [1] Group 4: Export Products - Mechanical and electrical products exports reached 121.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, constituting 86% of the province's total exports [2] - Integrated circuit exports were 51.39 billion yuan, growing by 8.3%, while automobile exports surged by 51% to 26.67 billion yuan [2] - Steel exports saw a remarkable increase of 96.7%, totaling 2.97 billion yuan [2]

Core Insights - South Africa is a major exporter of fruits in Africa, with a rich variety of fruits available year-round, particularly during the Northern Hemisphere's supply shortages in January [1][2] - The Morten brothers played a pivotal role in establishing South Africa's fruit export industry, starting with the successful export of peaches to London in 1892 [1][2] - The apple production in South Africa has grown significantly, with Elgin Valley contributing approximately 60% of the country's apple output, and the industry continues to focus on export-oriented growth [2] Fruit Export Industry Overview - South Africa's apple exports peak from January to May, coinciding with the Chinese market's demand during its "off-season" for domestic apples [3] - In 2024, China is projected to import 97,500 tons of apples, with South Africa becoming the second-largest supplier within a decade [3] - Challenges facing the South African apple industry include drought conditions, aging orchards, power shortages, and the need for improved brand recognition in international markets [3] Avocado Export Potential - South Africa has developed high-quality avocado varieties since the 1990s, with current planting areas around 20,000 hectares and an annual production of approximately 160,000 tons [4] - The entry of South African avocados into the Chinese market in October 2024 presents significant growth opportunities, especially with the rising demand for healthy foods [4][5] - However, competition from Peru, which holds over 71% of the Chinese avocado market, poses challenges for South African avocados [5] Competitive Advantages - South Africa's avocado harvest season spans from February to January, providing a unique supply window compared to competitors [6] - The visual appeal and taste of South African avocados, along with superior farming practices, enhance their marketability [6] - The overall fruit industry in South Africa, including pears, citrus, and lemons, is thriving and contributing to local employment and economic growth [6] Trade Challenges - Recent U.S. tariffs of up to 30% on South African citrus products have raised concerns about the impact on exports, with nearly 100,000 tons expected to be shipped to the U.S. in 2024 [7] - The industry is urged to diversify markets and enhance communication with U.S. authorities to mitigate the effects of these tariffs [7]

去年很多存款搬家去了债券市场赚差价，可现如今债券市场也不好赚钱了，资金又流回银行存成了定期。 先把刚出来的最新的 5 月金融数据，分析一波。 代表经济活跃度的 M1 ，增速 2.3% ，升至一年来的新高。这里面的核心原因是因为去年打击存款补息， 把基数拉得很低，参考意义不大。更关键点是环比数据，比上个月减少了2307亿元，说明企业和居民手里 的活钱又变少了，老问题还是没解决，消费和投资的意愿还在往下掉。广义货币供应量M2增速7.9%，增 速同样不低。 钱不少，但是都在银行手里捂着呢。 从最新的数据来看，前五个月住户存款增加了 8.3 万亿，全国人民存在银行的钱，又重新突破 160 万亿规 模。 周末有不少卖方在吹社融数据很好。 社会融资规模增加 2.3 万亿，同比多增 2271 亿元，月末增速 8.7% ，与上个月持平。和过去五年同期做 个横向对比，今年 5 月的社融属于次高水平，仅低于 2022 年。 乍一看总数，是一份相当亮眼的数据，可拆开来看，结构问题仍然存在。 从上面的图，最后一栏就是政府债券。 看看这条有多长，就会发现新增主要靠的是什么了，就是政府发债。 整个 5 月政府债券增加 14633 亿元， ...

一系列大招、实招、好招，即将推出。 6月13日，深圳举办"深入推进深圳综合改革试点"系列新闻发布会，介绍深圳市贯彻落实《关于深入推进深圳 综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》（以下简称《意见》）的相关情况，以及进一步全面深化改革的 情况。 证券时报记者在发布会上获悉，《意见》以系统集成的方式，部署了一大批含金量高、撬动力强、内涵丰富的 重大改革举措。深圳将逐项细化任务书、路线图、时间表，再推出一批改革措施，落地一批创新实验，深化一 批改革举措，有力有序推动意见部署的各项任务落地落实。 从四大方面进一步深化改革 深圳市委常委、秘书长、改革办主任郑红波表示，综合改革试点实施近五年来，各项改革任务扎实有序推进， 取得了重要进展和成效，主要体现在六个方面：一是要素协同配置效率持续提高，二是一流营商环境加快打 造，三是科技创新体制机制进一步完善，四是构建高水平开放型经济体制取得新进展，五是公共服务体制日益 优化，六是生态环境和城市空间治理机制不断完善。 郑红波表示，《意见》在新的起点上赋予深圳一系列重大改革任务，深圳将从四个方面进一步深化改革。 一是在创新、教育、科技、人才体制机制上先行先试。深圳将紧紧围绕建设具有 ...

本周以来 海关总署、国家税务总局等部门 陆续发布权威数据 交出亮眼成绩单 下面一起通过一组数据 感受中国经济的底气与活力 同比增长2.5% 前5月我国外贸保持较强韧性 海关总署6月9日对外公布，今年前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值17.94万亿元，同比增长2.5%，延续增长态 势。5月份进出口3.81万亿元，增长2.7%。5月当月，我国出口2.28万亿元，增长6.3%。其中，对东盟、欧盟、非 洲、中亚五国出口分别增长16.9%、13.7%、35.3%、8.8%。 离境退税新政实施首月 办理退税数量同比增长116% 离境退税新政实施首月 办理退税数量显著增长 Elistans 离境 退税 全国税务部门办理离境退税笔数同比增长116%，退税商店销售额同比增长56%； "即买即退"业务试点推广至全国，办理数量同比增长32倍，销售额比去年同期增长50倍； 新增离境退税商店1303家，全国离境退税商店已增至5196家，为2024年底的1.4倍。 前5个月我国汽车销量达1274.8万辆 新能源车占比44% 记者6月11日从中国汽车工业协会获悉，最新数据显示，今年前5个月，汽车产销量同比增长均超10%。当前，我 国汽车行业 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of multilateral frameworks and regional cooperation in response to U.S. protectionism and unilateralism, as highlighted by Lin Yifu from Peking University [1] - China's trade data for May shows resilience despite external pressures, with exports to ASEAN, EU, Africa, and Central Asia growing significantly [2][4] - The decline in China's exports to the U.S. by 34.5% in May underscores the need for diversification in trade partnerships [3][4] Trade Performance - In May, China's total exports increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with notable growth rates of 16.9% to ASEAN, 13.7% to the EU, 35.3% to Africa, and 8.8% to Central Asia [1][2] - The World Bank has downgraded global economic growth expectations from 2.7% to 2.3% due to trade barriers and policy uncertainties [2] Structural Changes in Trade - China's trade structure is optimizing, with increasing exports to ASEAN, Africa, and Central Asia, which are seen as new growth points outside traditional markets [4] - The trade relationship between China and the EU is strengthening, with exports to the EU growing faster than overall exports, indicating a high degree of economic complementarity [6] Regional Cooperation - The article discusses the significance of regional cooperation, particularly with ASEAN, as a stabilizing factor for the Asia-Pacific economy and a model for multilateral free trade [4] - The ongoing economic dialogue between China and the UK reflects a renewed focus on cooperation, despite geopolitical tensions [7] Future Opportunities - Companies are encouraged to leverage the benefits of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to enhance competitiveness and market access [10] - There is a call for continued support for private enterprises in foreign trade, particularly in financing and risk management [11]

Core Viewpoint - The AEO (Authorized Economic Operator) system is transforming Dongguan's foreign trade landscape, shifting the city from a "foreign trade giant" to a "foreign trade powerhouse" through enhanced efficiency and compliance measures [3][9][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections AEO System Impact - As of May this year, 200 AEO-certified enterprises in Dongguan, representing only 0.3% of the total number of enterprises, contributed 52% of the city's total import and export value [8][9]. - The AEO certification serves as a "golden signboard" for international trade, providing practical tools to overcome efficiency bottlenecks [9]. Policy and Support Measures - The customs authority offers 45 facilitation measures across six categories, including reduced inspection rates and prioritized inspections, which, combined with incentives from 40 government ministries, create a synergistic effect [9][10]. - Local government and financial institutions are collaborating effectively, with the provincial Agricultural Bank providing over 8 million yuan in fee reductions for AEO enterprises, supported by government funding [4][10]. Strategic Transformation - The transition from a "scale dividend" to a "quality dividend" is central to Dongguan's foreign trade evolution, with AEO certification driving industry upgrades [4][10]. - The collaboration among customs, local government, and enterprises is forming an unprecedented synergy, enhancing policy precision and depth to meet enterprise needs [10]. Future Outlook - The ongoing development of the AEO system is expected to further elevate Dongguan's position in the global value chain, showcasing its robust capabilities in international competition [10].