据上海清算所消息，2025年6月17日，上海清算所董事长马贱阳会见明讯银行首席执行官Philip Brown一 行。双方围绕持续探索金融基础设施互联互通、拓展发行托管服务与担保品管理等领域合作进行了深入 探讨。 ...

Economic Overview - The national economy maintained stable operation in May, supported by more proactive macro policies, with stable production demand and overall employment situation [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year in May, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61% [2] - The equipment manufacturing industry saw a 9.0% year-on-year increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 8.6%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.2 and 2.8 percentage points respectively [2] - Key products such as 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles experienced significant production growth of 40.0%, 35.5%, and 31.7% year-on-year [3] - From January to May, the industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year [3] Service Sector - The service production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - The service sector's business activity index was at 50.2 in May, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the business activity expectation index rose to 56.5 [5] - From January to May, the service production index increased by 5.9% year-on-year [5] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous month [6] - Online retail sales amounted to 60,402 billion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales at 49,878 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase [6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 191,947 billion yuan from January to May, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [8] - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%. However, real estate development investment declined by 10.7% [9] Trade Performance - The total value of goods imports and exports reached 38,098 billion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [10] - Exports were 22,767 billion yuan, up by 6.3%, while imports decreased by 2.1% [10] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0% in May, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [11][12] - The average urban surveyed unemployment rate from January to May was 5.2% [12] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% [13] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May [13]

宣言承诺，构建物流、商贸、产业协同发展的现代化体系，全面提升中非经贸株洲陆港的服务能力。加强物流体 系升级，建设"通道+枢纽+网络"的现代物流运行体系，打造贯通中国内陆、联通非洲大陆的物流主通道。加强商 贸体系创新，推动中非货品双向流通，形成中非优品贸易生态圈。加强产业体系融合，将中非经贸株洲陆港建成 具有全球优势的中非合作枢纽与产业聚集高地。 6月13日，在湖南省株洲市举办的2025中非经贸株洲陆港合作交流活动上，发布了2025中非经贸株洲陆港合作宣 言。 宣言指出，株洲市作为中国内陆地区重要铁路运输交通枢纽，经过三年多来的努力，已经率先建立中国内陆直通 非洲大陆的货物运输大通道，为中非经贸深化发展奠定重要基础。推动基础设施联通、经济贸易畅通、产业发展 融通，致力打造中非经贸株洲陆港，是服务和融入中非共建"一带一路"、助力中非经贸深度合作先行区建设、构 建中非命运共同体的重大举措。 宣言坚信，中非经贸株洲陆港作为"一带一路"对非合作新支点，必将有力推动中非双方更高水平开放，有力服务 中非经贸深度融合，让更多"中国制造"更便捷地走进非洲市场，让更多"非洲好物"更高效地惠及中国消费者，实 现双向赋能、互利共赢。 ...

2025 年 06 月 16 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] REITs 指数延续涨势，产权类本周走强 公募 REITs 周报 最近一年走势 投资要点: 相关报告 《5 月资金流向月报：资金面宽松，科创 ETF 净流 入*徐凝碧，林加力》——2025-06-15 《资产配置报告：财政发力支撑总量，M1 增速回 升*林加力，徐凝碧》——2025-06-15 《公募 REITs 周报：二级市场表现领先，REITs 总 市值首破两千亿*林加力》——2025-06-09 《2025 年 6 月大类资产配置报告：审慎情绪延续， 聚焦结构性机会*林加力》——2025-06-05 《公募 REITs 周报：市场活跃度略降，交通基础设 施连续上涨*林加力》——2025-06-04 一级市场两单项目状态更新：根据交易所最新披露，截至 2025 年 6 月 13 日，目前无已申报项目，有 2 单已受理、1 单已问询、8 单已 反馈，以及 5 单已通过审核等待上市。本周（2025 年 6 月 9 日至 2025 年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds was halved, and the net financing continued to be negative. The issuance of innovative varieties such as science - and - technology bonds increased. The reform of economic development zones encourages park urban investment companies to list for financing [6][9][17]. - The yield of urban investment bonds may be more likely to decline. The safety cushion of urban investment bonds is still sufficient, and the credit spread still has room to compress. Investment strategies include allocating high - quality enterprises in strong regions, paying attention to urban investment companies in key provinces with debt resolution benefits, and weak - qualified urban investment companies in strong regions. Also, focus on new bond - issuing entities in the industrial transformation and integration of urban investment [6][7][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 5 - month Urban Investment Bond Market Operation Characteristics - **Financing and issuance scale**: Affected by tightened financing policies and seasonal factors, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased by 52.44% month - on - month to 26.3616 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 7.127 billion yuan, remaining negative for three consecutive months. The issuance scale from January to May was 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.22%. 21 provinces had net outflows, and the net outflow scale of key provinces and large economic provinces decreased month - on - month [9][11]. - **Review and approval**: The review and approval pass rate of urban investment bonds on the exchange decreased by 7.45 percentage points to 88.01% month - on - month, with 7 bonds terminated for review, mainly issued by AA - level and below entities. The registration pass rate of the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors increased by 5.97 percentage points to 11% month - on - month [10][11]. - **Innovative varieties**: The issuance of science - and - technology bonds accelerated. In May, 14 labeled urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 1.2 billion yuan. Among them, 9 science - and - technology bonds had a scale of 870 million yuan. Labeled urban investment bonds had a certain cost advantage [17]. - **Issuance term and borrowing - to - repay ratio**: The weighted average issuance term was 4.18 years, an increase of 0.18 years month - on - month. The borrowing - to - repay ratio was 93.24%, and 14 provinces reached 100%. Only Chongqing among the 8 key provinces issued new - type urban investment bonds [20]. - **Issuance interest rate and spread**: The weighted average issuance interest rate was 2.30%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points month - on - month, and the spread was 77.49BP, a narrowing of 14.44BP month - on - month. The issuance cost in key provinces was higher and the decline was smaller [23]. - **Overseas bonds**: The issuance scale of overseas urban investment bonds decreased by 70.33% month - on - month to 1.2218 billion yuan, and the weighted average issuance interest rate increased by 0.31BP to 5.88% [29]. - **Yield and credit spread**: The spot trading scale of urban investment bonds decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The yield of urban investment bonds decreased overall, and the credit spreads of most key provinces narrowed [32]. 3.2 Credit Analysis - **Rating adjustment**: On May 19, 2025, Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Co., Ltd. upgraded the bond ratings of "G23 Nanhu 1" and "23 Nanhu Green Bond 01" of Jiaxing Nanhu Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA, with a stable outlook [7]. - **Abnormal transactions**: 46 bonds of 39 urban investment entities had 70 abnormal transactions, with a scale of 252 million yuan. The scale and number of abnormal transactions decreased month - on - month [7]. 3.3 Early Redemption and Maturity Putback - In May, 62 urban investment companies early - redeemed the principal and interest of 73 bonds, with a scale of 1.3396 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 46.34%. The maturity and putback scale of urban investment bonds in the second half of the year is 2.8 trillion yuan [7]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - Allocate high - quality enterprises in strong regions based on fundamentals and moderately extend the duration. For medium - and short - term duration allocation, focus on strong urban investment companies in key provinces with debt resolution benefits and weak - qualified urban investment companies in strong regions. Also, pay attention to new bond - issuing entities in the industrial transformation and integration of urban investment, especially those with labeled bonds such as science - and - technology and green bonds [6][45]. 3.5 Recent Policies and Hot Events - **Central policies**: In May, the central government introduced policies beneficial to the transformation and development of urban investment enterprises, including supporting the issuance of science - and - technology bonds, promoting urban renewal, reforming national economic development zones, and improving the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics [6][48]. - **Local policies**: Jilin proposed to accelerate the "withdrawal from the province", Xinjiang set a goal to clear financing platforms in 2025, Jiangsu supervised the replacement of implicit debts with special bonds, and Zhejiang issued special bonds for purchasing existing commercial housing [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent ETF investment frenzy labeled as "arbitrage" is cooling down, with significant losses for investors who participated in the "Xinchang ETF" arbitrage movement as many funds have returned to pre-suspension levels of the underlying stocks [2][3][6]. Group 1: ETF Investment Dynamics - On May 25, Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang announced a merger, leading to their suspension and prompting investors to flock to the Xinchang ETFs to capitalize on potential gains upon their return [3][4]. - The Xinchang ETFs track the Zhongzheng Information Technology Application Innovation Index and the Guozheng Information Technology Innovation Theme Index, with significant holdings in the suspended stocks [3][4]. - From May 26 to June 9, Xinchang ETFs saw a net inflow of 71.7 billion yuan, with several funds experiencing over 20-fold increases in their share sizes [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Performance - Following the resumption of trading on June 10, while Zhongke Shuguang hit a daily limit up and Haiguang Information opened high, the Xinchang ETFs faced collective sell-offs, dropping between 2.5% and 3.8% [5][6]. - By June 13, the total scale of the Xinchang ETFs had decreased to 44.6 billion yuan, a reduction of over 38 billion yuan in just four days, although it still represented a net increase of 33.5 billion yuan since May 25 [6][10]. Group 3: Risks and Limitations of ETF Arbitrage - The ETF arbitrage strategy faced multiple risks, including the dilution of original holders' interests due to the rapid increase in fund size and the inability to capture the full benefits of the underlying stocks' performance [6][10]. - Investors attempting to buy into the ETFs directly faced challenges as market prices quickly adjusted to the news, often leading to losses if they bought at inflated prices [7][9]. - The change in redemption rules by some fund managers, requiring cash instead of stocks for redemptions, further complicated the arbitrage strategy, limiting investors' ability to capitalize on the suspended stocks [10][12]. Group 4: Controversy Over Fund Management Practices - The surge in ETF size raised concerns about whether fund managers' redemption rules were detrimental to original holders, as the dilution of stock weightings reduced the potential benefits from the stocks' recovery [12][15]. - There is ongoing debate about whether fund companies should prioritize the interests of original holders, especially in light of the significant losses incurred by those who participated in the arbitrage [12][15]. - The adjustments made by fund managers, such as limiting subscriptions and changing cash replacement rules, have sparked discussions on how to better balance the interests of new and existing investors in future scenarios [12][15].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Clearing House successfully held a conference on the construction of OTC trading clearing mechanisms for bulk commodities, focusing on the pain points and challenges in the clearing process to provide innovative ideas for high-quality market development [1] - The General Manager of Shanghai Clearing House emphasized the institution's commitment to serving the real economy and addressing the challenges in OTC trading clearing, aiming to facilitate the integration of finance and industry and support the construction of a multi-level clearing system for bulk commodities [1] - The conference included discussions on optimizing existing OTC commodity market trading clearing mechanisms and sharing insights on building a commodity ecosystem and exploring innovative products and services [1] Group 2 - In April 2021, Shanghai Clearing House launched the Commodity Clearing Link to provide clearing services for bulk commodity spot transactions, with a cross-border RMB clearing service for spot commodity transactions set to be introduced in December 2024 [2] - The Commodity Clearing Link has connected with 8 spot platforms, including the first partner Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Technology Group, to create convenient cross-border payment channels [2] - By the end of 2024, the Commodity Clearing Link had connected with 22 banks, served over 12,000 entities, and processed a cumulative clearing amount exceeding 2.4 trillion yuan, demonstrating a replicable business model and expanding service effectiveness [2]

以下文章来源于底线思维 ，作者王世纯 底线思维 . 观察者网时评专栏 本文来自微信公众号： 底线思维 （ID：dixiansiwei） ，作者 ：王世纯，原文标题：《伊朗会是第 二个阿萨德叙利亚吗？》，头图来自：视觉中国（图为当地时间2025年6月13日，伊朗德黑兰，以色 列袭击伊朗首都后，消防员和民众在一处居民区清理爆炸现场） 本周最大的军事新闻，无疑是以色列对伊朗的成功袭击。6月13日，以色列战机空袭了伊朗首都德黑 兰的多个高级军官和核科学家住所、伊朗城市皮兰沙赫尔的战略导弹基地、哈马丹和纳坦兹铀浓缩设 施等数十个目标，取得丰硕战果。目前，以军的空袭仍在继续，开源消息证实伊朗遭受了重大物质损 失和人员损失。多名伊朗高级官员被以色列的空袭消灭。 伊朗中央决策层遭受一轮重创 到笔者完稿之时，伊朗官方媒体已经证实多名高级指挥官和科学家死亡，死亡的高级官员包括但不限 于伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令侯赛因·萨拉米、伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队中央司令官员古拉姆·阿里·拉希 德、伊朗原子能组织前负责人费雷杜恩·阿巴斯和伊朗核科学家穆罕默德·迈赫迪·德黑兰奇等。 在一众身亡的高级官员之中，最大的损失则是总参谋长穆罕默德·巴盖里少将和 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank forecasts a significant slowdown in global economic growth, predicting a growth rate of only 2.3% in 2025, the lowest since 2008 [1] - Nearly 70% of economies have downgraded their growth expectations due to escalating trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and rising protectionism [1] Regional Performance - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to perform relatively well, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2025, accelerating to around 4% in the following two years [1] - Morocco shows strong economic resilience, with GDP growth expected to be 3.6% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, surpassing the regional average [1] Economic Recovery Factors - Morocco's economic recovery is attributed to macroeconomic stability and a rebound in the industrial sector, particularly in construction and energy infrastructure investments [1] - The country benefits from declining inflation and a rebound in domestic demand, although this recovery is heavily reliant on stable food and energy prices, export growth, and relative geopolitical stability in the region [1] Challenges and Risks - Morocco faces high public debt pressure and limited fiscal space, with tax reform effects yet to materialize [2] - Global monetary policy tightening, capital flow volatility, and increasing regional security risks could impact Morocco's economy [2] - The World Bank warns that ongoing global protectionism may suppress investor confidence and reduce foreign investment inflows, posing new external risks for emerging economies like Morocco [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou is actively enhancing urban quality through 291 projects, with 173 completed and the rest expected to finish by August 31, aiming to improve citizens' well-being and promote urban development [1][2]. Group 1: Urban Quality Improvement Projects - A total of 291 urban quality improvement projects have been initiated, focusing on areas such as roads, parks, rivers, streets, lighting, and rural beautification [1]. - The completion of 173 projects signifies progress, with remaining projects set to be completed by the end of August [1]. Group 2: Long-term Development Strategy - Guangzhou adopts a "during the event for the event, after the event for the city" approach, emphasizing long-term urban planning around event venues [2]. - The city is implementing 40 design guidelines and developing 30 venues with 17 refined street areas, showcasing a commitment to integrated construction and management [2]. Group 3: Enhancing Citizen Experience - The happiness and satisfaction of citizens are key metrics for assessing urban quality, driving the need for projects that meet public demand and improve living conditions [3]. - Initiatives include creating better transportation environments, friendly living spaces, and vibrant public areas for community engagement [3]. Group 4: Event-driven Urban Transformation - The upcoming 15th National Games serves as a catalyst for urban transformation, with efforts to elevate Guangzhou's status as a model city in China [3]. - The city aims to enhance its charm and promote a harmonious urban development narrative, benefiting both the city and its residents [3].