Shares of Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL ) have sold off considerably over the past five months, leaving them down about 20% over the past year. Elevated mortgage rates have weighed on housing market activity, reducing expectations for the homebuilders. However, as I have writtenOver fifteen years of experience making contrarian bets based on my macro view and stock-specific turnaround stories to garner outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile. If you want me to cover a specific stock or have a quest ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies, including D.R. Horton Inc. (Buy, $124.93), Installed Building Products Inc. (Buy, $161.63), Meritage Homes Corp. (Buy, $67.87), and TopBuild Corp. (Buy, $295.50) [42]. Core Insights - The housing market activity scale remains flat at 4 for the week of May 11, which is 16% below the long-term average and down 7% year over year [5][10]. - New construction is expected to maintain a relative advantage over repair and remodel (R&R) activities, with building product companies like IBP and BLD being well-positioned [3]. - Spec-focused homebuilders such as MTH and DHI are viewed positively [3]. Summary by Sections Housing Market Activity - The index held at 4, indicating mixed indicators with a 2% increase in purchase applications and a 3% gain in home sales compared to the previous week [5][11]. - The 30-year mortgage rate increased by 5 basis points to 6.81%, contributing to the uncertainty in the housing market [24]. Market Dynamics - Active listings increased by 14% year over year, although they remain 14% below the 2019 average [15]. - The median sale price rose by 2% year over year, while 40% of homes were off the market within two weeks, an increase from 37% in the same week of 2019 [15][21]. Mortgage Market Update - Total mortgage applications rose by 27% year over year, with purchase applications up 18% year over year [33]. - Refinancing applications increased by 44% year over year, indicating a robust refinancing market despite the rising mortgage rates [24][35].

Market Performance - Major market indexes started the trading day in the red, with the Dow down 114 points (-0.27%), S&P 500 down 0.39%, and Nasdaq down 72 points (-0.38%). Only the Russell 2000 managed a slight gain of 1 point (+0.05%) [1] - The S&P 500 ended its six-day winning streak, indicating a potential shift in market momentum [1] Economic Context - No significant economic data was released, and there were no updates on tariff negotiations. Concerns are rising regarding a proposed tax bill that could significantly increase the federal deficit [2] - The U.S. credit rating has been downgraded by major credit agencies, reflecting growing fiscal concerns [2] Recovery Outlook - The anticipated "V-shaped recovery" appears to be stalling, particularly in the absence of major trade agreements. Major indexes have seen double-digit gains over the past month, but only the Dow and S&P 500 are positive year-to-date [3] Earnings Reports - Palo Alto Networks reported mixed fiscal Q3 results, with earnings of $0.39 per share, missing expectations by $0.02, but revenues of $2.3 billion exceeded consensus, marking a 15% year-over-year increase [4] - Toll Brothers exceeded earnings expectations with $3.50 per share against a consensus of $2.86, and revenues of $2.71 billion surpassed the $2.50 billion forecast. However, signed contracts were down 13% [4] Upcoming Market Events - The upcoming week lacks major economic reports until Thursday's Weekly Jobless Claims, with focus shifting to potential trade deals and the implications of the new tax bill on the federal deficit [5] - Big-box retailers are concluding the earnings season, with Lowe's and Target expected to report negative earnings estimates, while TJX Companies anticipates a 4% revenue growth [6]

Core Points - Meritage Homes has extended its partnership with Operation Homefront's Permanent Homes for Veterans Program, donating two new, mortgage-free homes for veteran families in Colorado Springs, Colorado, and Raleigh, North Carolina, marking the 12th year of collaboration and a total of 22 donations to date [1][2] Company Overview - Meritage Homes is the fifth-largest public homebuilder in the United States based on homes closed in 2024, offering energy-efficient and affordable entry-level and first move-up homes across multiple states including Arizona, California, Colorado, and others [5] - The company has delivered nearly 200,000 homes in its 40-year history, known for distinctive style, quality construction, and award-winning customer experience [6] - Meritage Homes is recognized as an industry leader in energy-efficient homebuilding, having received multiple awards from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for its commitment to sustainability [6] Partnership Details - The new homes will feature open-concept floorplans, designer-curated interiors, and energy-efficient features such as ENERGY STAR® appliances and smart home technology [2] - The recipients of this year's homes will be announced in September, with key presentations scheduled for November around Veterans Day [3] Operation Homefront Overview - Operation Homefront is a national nonprofit organization focused on building strong, stable, and secure military families, with 83% of its expenditures directed towards programs supporting military families [8] - The organization provides critical financial assistance, housing, and family support services to help prevent short-term needs from becoming long-term struggles [8]

Accessibility StatementSkip Navigation "Inside and out, our goal is to create elegant spaces that cater to the evolving lifestyles of our homeowners," said Kieran Hardesty, Vice President of Architecture at Century Communities. "Many of our floor plans incorporate features that promote a strong balance between indoor and outdoor living, providing functional layouts that our homeowners can enjoy throughout the year." Summer 2025 Outdoor Living Trends 1. Seamless Indoor-Outdoor FlowThis evergreen trend rightl ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for the second quarter were $686 million, closer to the low end of guidance, primarily due to a mix of deliveries with higher-priced home deliveries slipping into future quarters [7] - Adjusted gross margin was 17.3%, just below the low end of guidance, impacted by increased incentives which rose to 10.5% [7][8] - Adjusted EBITDA was $61 million, slightly above the high end of guidance, while adjusted pretax income was $29 million, near the high end of guidance [10] - Year-over-year total revenues declined despite flat deliveries, primarily due to lower average sales prices [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Contracts for the second quarter, including domestic unconsolidated joint ventures, decreased by 7% year-over-year, with significant monthly sales volatility observed [13] - The company reported 11.2 contracts per community, which is higher than the quarterly average since 2008, despite a year-over-year decline in contracts per community [14][15] - The percentage of home buyers utilizing mortgage rate buy downs was 75%, indicating continued reliance on these incentives to combat affordability [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a 12% increase in the total number of open for sale communities year-over-year, ending the quarter with 148 communities [29] - Controlled lots increased by 15% year-over-year, equating to a 7.7-year supply of controlled lots [30] - The company noted that 60.3% of communities with price increases were in better-performing markets such as Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on pace over price, resulting in an above-average number of contracts per community compared to peers, despite a challenging sales environment [16] - A strategic decision was made to burn through less profitable land parcels at lower gross margins to clear the way for recent land acquisitions that meet target return metrics [26] - The company is actively engaging with land sellers to find mutually beneficial solutions in a slow market [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed satisfaction with the quarter's performance given the difficult environment, while remaining vigilant about economic uncertainties [49] - The company expects to return to more favorable performance metrics as it replaces certain land positions with newer acquisitions that meet return targets [26] - Guidance for the next quarter assumes no adverse changes in current market conditions, with total revenues expected between $750 million and $850 million [42] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $2 billion in liquidity, within its targeted range, and has made significant progress in reducing debt and improving its balance sheet [38][40] - The company signed a memorandum of understanding with the Ministry of Housing in Saudi Arabia to expand activities and partnerships in the region [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Have you seen lower land prices on recent acquisitions? - Management indicated that land sellers are slow to adjust prices, but they are finding opportunities to replenish land supply at better returns [56] Question: What markets are yielding better results with land sellers? - Management mentioned markets such as Delaware, Virginia, Southeast Coastal Charleston, New Jersey, and Maryland as currently yielding better results [57] Question: What is the current incentive structure? - The company utilizes a mix of mortgage rate buy downs, price reductions, and other incentives depending on the delivery timeline of homes [63] Question: Is the focus still on spec building? - Management confirmed that the strategy remains focused on quick move-in homes, which allows for affordable mortgage rate buy downs [64] Question: How long will it take to clear older vintage land? - Management noted that the timeline varies by geography, with some areas already cleared out while others may take two to three years [70] Question: What are the expectations for construction costs in the back half of the year? - Management expressed optimism about maintaining or slightly reducing construction costs, barring any significant increases in lumber prices [77]

Market Overview - Pre-market futures are flat following a sixth-straight up-day on the S&P 500, with market sentiment buoyed by positive trade deal expectations [1] - The Dow is up +0.03%, while the S&P 500 is down -0.17%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has grown nearly +20% recently but is down -0.28% in early trading [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) dropped -1.0% to 99.4 points in April, marking the first time below 100 since September of last year [3] - This decline represents the fifth consecutive drop in LEI, which had previously shown a hopeful turn around the 2024 election [3] Home Depot Earnings - Home Depot reported mixed Q1 results with earnings of $3.56 per share, missing the Zacks consensus by 3 cents, while revenues were $39.86 billion, up +9.4% year over year [5] - Shares of Home Depot are up +2% in pre-market trading, recovering most of year-to-date losses [5] Viking Holdings Earnings - Viking Holdings reported Q1 results with negative earnings of -$0.24 per share, which was 2 cents better than expected, and revenues of $897.06 million, exceeding estimates by +4.49% [6] - Despite outperforming expectations, shares are down -5% in early trading [6] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Palo Alto Networks is expected to report negative -8% earnings growth with revenues projected to increase by +14.67% [7] - Toll Brothers is anticipated to report fiscal Q2 numbers with expected declines of -15.3% on earnings and -11.9% on revenues, although it may achieve its third earnings beat in the last four quarters [8]

Core Viewpoint - LGI Homes successfully conducted its ninth annual Service Impact Day, emphasizing the company's commitment to community service through volunteer work and financial contributions [4][5]. Group 1: Service Impact Day - On May 15th, LGI Homes team members contributed over 8,500 volunteer hours, collaborating with more than 60 nonprofit organizations across the country [5]. - The initiative, launched in 2016, has become a company-wide tradition, allowing employees to focus on charitable work instead of sales [4][9]. - LGI Giving, the company's philanthropic initiative, anticipates donating upwards of $1 million in 2025 to support nonprofit organizations [5]. Group 2: Community Engagement - Employees volunteered with Angel Reach to landscape homes for youth transitioning to adult living, addressing issues of abuse, neglect, and homelessness [7]. - At SIRE Therapeutic Horsemanship, employees helped improve facilities to support individuals with disabilities through equine-assisted activities [3][6]. - The company also supported the Girl Scouts by painting camp facilities, enhancing the environment for their programs [10]. Group 3: Company Overview - LGI Homes, headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, is a pioneer in the homebuilding industry, operating in 36 markets across 21 states [11]. - Since its founding in 2003, the company has closed over 75,000 homes and has consistently delivered profitable financial results [11]. - LGI Homes has received numerous workplace awards, including the Top Workplaces USA 2025 Award, reflecting its commitment to employee satisfaction and community involvement [11].

Shares of United Homes Group, Inc. (UHG) have lost 10.8% since the company reported its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2025. This contrasts with the S&P 500 Index’s 0.6% gain over the same period. Over the past month, UHG stock has plunged 17.2%, underperforming the S&P 500, which recorded an 11.8% gain.Revenue and Earnings OverviewFor the first quarter of 2025, UHG posted revenues of $87 million, down 13.7% from $100.8 million in the year-ago period. This decline was primarily due to an 18.9% yea ...

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. is launching a new luxury home community named Toll Brothers at Wildtree in Magnolia, Texas, with construction already underway and sales expected to begin in late 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Community Features - The new community will offer modern one- and two-story home designs on 60-foot-wide home sites, with floor plans exceeding 3,600 square feet [2] - Homes will feature contemporary architecture, including cathedral ceilings and spiral staircases, along with extensive personalization options [2][4] - Residents will have access to a future amenity center that includes a clubhouse, resort-style pool, and scenic walking and biking trails [2][4] Group 2: Location and Accessibility - The community is conveniently located near Texas State Highway 249 and the Grand Parkway, facilitating easy travel [4] - It is served by the highly rated Magnolia Independent School District, which includes Magnolia Parkway Elementary, Magnolia Junior High School, and Magnolia West High School [4] Group 3: Pricing and Market Position - Homes in the Toll Brothers at Wildtree community are expected to start in the mid-$500,000s [2] - Toll Brothers is recognized as the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, operating in over 60 markets across 24 states [8][9]