Financial Performance - Net income for Q1 2025 was $299.6 million, a decrease of 24% from $394.3 million in Q1 2024[2] - Consolidated revenues for Q1 2025 totaled $2.40 billion, an increase of 3% from $2.33 billion in Q1 2024[2] - Gross profit margin in Q1 2025 decreased to 21.9%, down from 24.5% in Q1 2024[4] - The effective tax rate for Q1 2025 was 25.5%, up from 16.2% in Q1 2024[6] Orders and Settlements - New orders in Q1 2025 decreased by 12% to 5,345 units compared to 6,049 units in Q1 2024[3] - Total new orders for Q1 2025 were 5,345 units with an average price of $448.5, a decrease of 11.6% in units from 6,049 units in Q1 2024 with an average price of $454.3[21] - Settlements in Q1 2025 totaled 5,133 units at an average price of $457.9, compared to 5,089 units in Q1 2024 with an average price of $449.2, indicating a slight increase in settlements[21] - Backlog of homes sold but not settled decreased by 9% to 10,165 units, and by 7% to $4.84 billion in dollar terms compared to Q1 2024[3] - The backlog as of March 31, 2025, was 10,165 units with an average price of $475.9, down from 11,189 units in the previous year with an average price of $466.4[21] Pricing and Market Trends - The average sales price of new orders in Q1 2025 was $448,500, a decrease of 1% from Q1 2024[3] - The average price for new orders in the North East region increased to $695.0 in Q1 2025 from $612.6 in Q1 2024, reflecting a significant price appreciation in that market[21] Mortgage Banking - Mortgage closed loan production in Q1 2025 totaled $1.43 billion, an increase of 4% from Q1 2024[5] - Income before tax from the mortgage banking segment increased by 12% to $32.5 million in Q1 2025[5] - Loan closings in mortgage banking reached $1,432,922 in Q1 2025, up from $1,378,009 in Q1 2024, reflecting a positive trend in mortgage activity[24] - The capture rate for mortgage banking remained stable at 86% for both Q1 2025 and Q1 2024, suggesting consistent performance in loan origination[24] Operational Metrics - The average active communities decreased to 401 in Q1 2025 from 427 in Q1 2024, reflecting a reduction in operational scale[24] - The new order cancellation rate increased to 16% in Q1 2025 from 13% in Q1 2024, indicating a rise in customer cancellations[24] - Lots controlled at the end of the period increased to 167,600 in Q1 2025 from 143,200 in Q1 2024, showing growth in land acquisition[24] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased 77,120 shares at an aggregate cost of $583,394 in Q1 2025, compared to 66,858 shares for $496,936 in Q1 2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders[24]

NVR (NVR) came out with quarterly earnings of $94.83 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $107.87 per share. This compares to earnings of $116.41 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -12.09%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this homebuilder would post earnings of $126.41 per share when it actually produced earnings of $139.93, delivering a surprise of 10.70%.Over the last four quarters, the company ...

Core Viewpoint - NVR, Inc. is expected to report lower earnings in Q1 2025 despite an increase in homebuilding revenues year-over-year, driven by adjustments to high mortgage rates and a strong business model [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, NVR's earnings and homebuilding revenues exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.7% and 3.3%, respectively, with year-over-year increases of 15% in earnings and 16% in homebuilding revenues [1]. - The consensus estimate for Q1 2025's EPS has decreased to $107.87 from $108.23, indicating a 7.3% decline from the year-ago EPS of $116.41 [2]. - Revenue for the upcoming quarter is projected at $2.37 billion, reflecting a 3.9% increase from the previous year's $2.29 billion [3]. Revenue and Orders - Homebuilding revenues, which accounted for 97.8% of total revenues in 2024, are expected to grow 4.8% year-over-year to $2.4 billion in Q1 2025 [5]. - The average selling price of settlements is anticipated to improve by 1.2% year-over-year to $454,400, with total settlements expected to rise 3.6% to 5,271 units [5]. - Total new orders are projected to increase by 8.7% year-over-year to 6,577 units, with a backlog of 11,259 units valued at $5.42 billion, up from $5.22 billion a year ago [7]. Cost and Margin Outlook - The company's bottom line is expected to decrease year-over-year due to rising building materials and labor costs, with homebuilding gross margin projected at 22%, down 250 basis points from the previous year [6]. Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model does not predict an earnings beat for NVR in the upcoming quarter, as the company lacks a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank [8]. - NVR's Earnings ESP stands at -1.62%, and it currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [9].

Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when NVR (NVR) reports results for the quarter ended March 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lo ...

Group 1 - Tomas Riba is an economist and former CFO who invests in high-quality companies capable of compounding cash flow over the long term [1] - His investment journey began in 2007, and he has a background in accounting and finance [1] - Riba has held the role of CFO for a holding company involved in various industries, including pharma, medical devices, textiles, food, and real estate [1] - Currently, he teaches courses on "Derivatives for risk management" and "Investment analysis" at a Master's Degree program in Financial Management [1] - Riba's investment strategy focuses on companies with strong competitive advantages, operating in growing industries, with expanding margins, low debt, and aligned management [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the appeal of "boring" stocks, highlighting NVR, Inc. as a notable example that the author had not previously encountered [1] - The author emphasizes the importance of patience and self-aptitude in identifying stocks that can outperform the S&P 500 over the long term [1] - The article serves as a personal reflection and a tool for the author to enhance their investment skills and understanding of potential stock opportunities [1]

Core Insights - NVR, Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter 2024 results, with earnings and homebuilding revenues exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate, showing year-over-year growth [1][3] Financial Performance - Earnings per share were $139.93, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $126.41 by 10.7%, and increased 15% from $121.56 in the prior-year quarter [3] - Homebuilding revenues reached $2.78 billion, exceeding the consensus mark of $2.69 billion by 3.3%, while consolidated revenues totaled $2.85 billion, up 17% year-over-year [3] - For the full year 2024, earnings were $506.69 per share, up from $463.31 in 2023, and homebuilding revenues increased to $10.29 billion from $9.31 billion [7] Segment Analysis - Homebuilding segment revenues grew 16% year-over-year, with settlements increasing 16% to 6,180 units, surpassing the model prediction of 5,875 units [4] - The average selling price (ASP) for settlements remained flat at $450,000, slightly below the estimated $454,400 [4] - New orders decreased by 8% to 4,794 units, but the ASP for new orders increased by 4% to $469,000 [5] Operational Metrics - The gross margin for homebuilding contracted by 50 basis points year-over-year to 23.6% [4] - The cancellation rate for new orders rose to 17% from 13% a year ago, while the backlog decreased by 3% in units but increased by 1% in dollar value to $4.79 billion [5] - The average active communities decreased to 426 from 438 reported a year ago [6] Mortgage Banking Performance - Mortgage banking fees increased by 42.7% year-over-year to $64.9 million, with closed loan production totaling $1.70 billion, up 13% [6] Shareholder Actions - NVR repurchased 256,871 shares for $2.1 billion during 2024, with 3,011,644 shares outstanding at the end of December 2024 [9]

Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, NVR, Inc. reported net income of $457.4 million, a 12% increase from $410.1 million in Q4 2023, with diluted earnings per share rising 15% to $139.93[1][2] - Consolidated revenues for the full year 2024 reached $10.52 billion, an 11% increase from $9.52 billion in 2023, with net income growing 6% to $1.68 billion[2][5] - Homebuilding revenues for Q4 2024 were $2.78 billion, a 16% increase from $2.39 billion in Q4 2023, although gross profit margin decreased to 23.6%[4][5] - Mortgage closed loan production in Q4 2024 totaled $1.70 billion, a 13% increase from Q4 2023, with income before tax from the mortgage banking segment rising 55% to $45.9 million[6] - For the full year 2024, mortgage closed loan production increased by 9% to $6.26 billion, with income before tax from the mortgage banking segment rising 17% to $154.9 million[7] Orders and Settlements - New orders in Q4 2024 decreased by 8% to 4,794 units, while the average sales price of new orders increased by 4% to $469,000 compared to Q4 2023[3] - Settlements in Q4 2024 increased by 16% to 6,180 units, with an average settlement price of $450,000, remaining relatively flat year-over-year[3][4] - New orders for the total units in 2024 were 22,560, an increase of 3.83% compared to 21,729 units in 2023[19] - The average price of new orders increased from $448.4 thousand in 2023 to $457.7 thousand in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 6.5%[19] - The new order cancellation rate rose to 16.9% in Q4 2024 from 13.0% in Q4 2023[21] Backlog and Inventory - The backlog of homes sold but not settled as of December 31, 2024, decreased by 3% to 9,953 units, while the dollar value of the backlog increased by 1% to $4.79 billion[3] - The total backlog decreased from 10,229 units in 2023 to 9,953 units in 2024, a decline of approximately 2.7%[20] Assets and Liabilities - The total assets of NVR, Inc. as of December 31, 2024, were $6.38 billion, a decrease from $6.60 billion in 2023[15] - Total liabilities decreased from $2,237,032 thousand as of December 31, 2023, to $2,170,916 thousand as of December 31, 2024, representing a reduction of approximately 2.97%[17] - Shareholders' equity decreased from $4,364,725 thousand as of December 31, 2023, to $4,210,072 thousand as of December 31, 2024, a decline of about 3.53%[17] Share Repurchase - The number of shares repurchased in 2024 was 256,871, compared to 181,499 shares in 2023, indicating a significant increase of approximately 41.5%[21] - The aggregate cost of shares repurchased rose from $1,081,815 thousand in 2023 to $2,057,677 thousand in 2024, an increase of about 90.3%[21] Operational Metrics - Average active communities remained stable at 427 in 2024, unchanged from 2023[21]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - NVR reported quarterly earnings of $139.93 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $126.41 per share, and up from $121.56 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 10.70% [1] - The company posted revenues of $2.78 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.27%, compared to year-ago revenues of $2.39 billion [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - NVR shares have increased approximately 2.5% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 2.2% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $120.88 on revenues of $2.44 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $531.08 on revenues of $10.93 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Building Products - Home Builders industry is currently ranked in the bottom 16% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - PulteGroup, another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $3.21 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 2.1%, with revenues projected at $4.66 billion, an increase of 8.6% from the previous year [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates NVR will report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. NVR Company Summary - NVR is expected to post quarterly earnings of $126.41 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $2.69 billion, indicating a 12.8% increase from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, suggesting stability in analyst expectations [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for NVR is lower than the consensus estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -5.99%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [10]. - NVR holds a Zacks Rank of 3, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, NVR was expected to earn $132.08 per share but delivered $130.50, resulting in a surprise of -1.20% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, NVR has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [13]. Industry Comparison - PulteGroup, another player in the homebuilding sector, is expected to report earnings of $3.21 per share, a year-over-year decrease of 2.1%, with revenues projected at $4.66 billion, up 8.6% [17]. - PulteGroup's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.4% lower, but a higher Most Accurate Estimate gives it an Earnings ESP of 2.36%, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [18].