瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01. 30」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 「 期现市场」 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 市场回顾：本周，伴随贵金属市场波动继续放大，黄金白银均创下历史新高，但多头高位获利了结叠加避险对 冲需求同时抬升，导致多空博弈显著加剧，周五盘中海内外贵金属市场大幅回调，短线市场情绪趋于谨慎。美 联储方面，FOMC议息会议如期维持利率按兵不动，符合市场预期。会议声明指出，经济活动保持稳健扩张，就 业增长温和，失业率初现企稳，通胀仍略高于目标。从议后市场反应来看，利率期货显示今年3月FOMC降息预 期减弱，但仍维持下半年逐步重启50-75基点降息的预期。继美国向欧洲八国进行关税威胁后，美方上调针对 韩国的关税税率，叠加美联储新一任主席政策立场的不确定性，以及市场对于美国债务问题持久化的担忧情绪， 推动贵金属市场大幅走高。美伊局势持续升温，美国总统特朗普表示正考虑对伊朗发动新的重大打击，伊方领 导人给予强硬回应，市场避险情 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2400 in the short - term [7] - The domestic methanol market shows a split between the port and the inland. The port market oscillates, while the inland price continues to decline. The overall domestic methanol production is increasing, and the inventory shows different trends in different regions. The short - term MTO industry's operating rate is expected to rise slightly [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2400 in the short - term [7] - Market performance: The port methanol market oscillates, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2240 - 2330 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2220 - 2290 yuan/ton. The inland price continues to decline, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 1785 - 1805 yuan/ton [8] - Outlook: The domestic methanol production increases. The inland enterprise inventory decreases slightly, the port inventory accumulates, but the port inventory is expected to decline next week. The short - term MTO industry's operating rate is expected to rise slightly [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures oscillates and closes up, with a weekly increase of 0.96% [11] - Inter - delivery spread: As of January 30th, the MA 5 - 9 spread is - 24 [16] - Position analysis: As of January 29th, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts is 7410, a decrease of 335 compared to last week [25] Spot Market - Domestic price: As of January 29th, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area is 2300 yuan/ton, an increase of 37.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia is 1790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. The spread between East China and Northwest is 510 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [30] - Foreign price: As of January 29th, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port is 272 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The spread between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port is 50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton compared to last week [35] - Basis: As of January 29th, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol is - 52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [39] 3.3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal and gas prices: As of January 28th, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal is 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of January 29th, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.88 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 1.48 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [42] Industry - Production and operating rate: As of January 29th, China's methanol production is 2037735 tons, an increase of 28820 tons compared to last week; the device capacity utilization rate is 91.21%, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [45] - Inventory: As of January 28th, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 42.41 tons, a decrease of 1.42 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 26.57 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.50%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 147.21 tons, an increase of 1.46 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China accumulates, while that in South China decreases [52] - Import volume and profit: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume is 173.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%; from January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume is 1440.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of January 29th, the methanol import profit is - 12.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94 yuan/ton compared to last week [57] Downstream - Operating rate: As of January 29th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices is 81.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The MTO devices of Zhejiang Xingxing, Sierbang, and Shandong Hengtong continue to be shut down, while the Ningbo Fude device restarts, but the weekly average operating rate still decreases [60] - Profit: As of January 30th, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit is - 936 yuan/ton, an increase of 102 yuan/ton compared to last week [63] 3.4. Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2605合约短线预计在1770-1830区间波动。 瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.01.30」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 4 「 期货市场情况」 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场呈现冲高回落，截止周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂涨至1740-1780元/ 吨，均价环比上涨45元/吨。本周期国内尿素企业陆续进入春节收单阶段，农业需求的跟进以及市 场情绪的带动，尿素工厂收单较为顺利，并未出现明显降价吸单现象，下游跟单积极性尚可。 行情展望：前期部分检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量增加，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，1-3家 停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量增幅有限。近期苏皖以及其 他区域春节前农业备肥需求持续推进，但增量有限。工业领域维持刚需采购，复合肥本周产能利 用率环比下滑，部分地区受到环保预警等影响，装置出现降负荷情况，工业需求对尿素支持减弱。 本周国内尿素企业库存波动较小， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - There are no explicit core viewpoints stated in the given text. The document is mainly a futures basis statistics table. 3. Summary by Related Categories Metals - **Copper**: The spot price is 106,950, the主力基差率 is -2.85%, and the current basis is -2765 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price is 25,550, the主力基差率 is -2.47%, and the current basis is -630 [3]. - **Zinc**: The spot price is 25,765, the主力基差率 is -1.48%, and the current basis is -475 [3]. - **Lead**: The spot price is 17,195, the主力基差率 is -2.04%, and the current basis is -235 [3]. - **Tin**: The spot price is 446,630, the主力基差率 is -1.62%, and the current basis is -8030 [3]. - **Nickel**: The spot price is 148,000, the主力基差率 is 1.55%, and the current basis is 2800 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is 9,250, the主力基差率 is 4.17%, and the current basis is 430 [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price is 166,140, the主力基差率 is -0.63%, and the current basis is 50 [3]. - **Gold**: The spot price is 1252.10, the主力基差率 is -0.46%, and the current basis is -8.70 [3]. - **Silver**: The spot price is 32,060, the主力基差率 is -2.89%, and the current basis is -2062 [3]. Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is 835.7, the主力基差率 is 4.65%, and the current basis is 37.2 [3]. - **Coke**: The spot price is 1876.5, the主力基差率 is -6.85%, and the current basis is -271.5 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is 1419.5, the主力基差率 is 1.98%, and the current basis is 22.5 [3]. - **Power Coal**: The spot price is 801.4, the主力基差率 is 0.25%, and the current basis is -103.4 [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The spot price is 5,820, the主力基差率 is -1.8%, and the current basis is -458 [3]. - **Silicomanganese**: The spot price is 6,036, the主力基差率 is -1.61%, and the current basis is -56 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price is 14,975, the主力基差率 is -0.48%, and the current basis is -195 [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4,466, the主力基差率 is -1.29%, and the current basis is -360 [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 3,080, the主力基差率 is 9.92%, and the current basis is 147 [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price is 2,490, the主力基差率 is 7.10%, and the current basis is 238 [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price is 8,900, the主力基差率 is 6.18%, and the current basis is 518 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price is 10,170, the主力基差率 is 7.66%, and the current basis is 793 [3]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is 9,100, the主力基差率 is 12.48%, and the current basis is 7978 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price is 9,362, the主力基差率 is -0.02%, and the current basis is 66 [3]. - **Corn**: The spot price is 2,335, the主力基差率 is 2.37%, and the current basis is 30 [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The spot price is 2,620, the主力基差率 is 2.96%, and the current basis is -10 [3]. - **Apples**: The spot price is 9,642, the主力基差率 is 13.92%, and the current basis is -126 [3]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is 4,050, the主力基差率 is 34.06%, and the current basis is 192 [3]. - **Hogs**: The spot price is 13,345, the主力基差率 is 13.80%, and the current basis is -388 [3]. - **Cotton**: The spot price is 16,103, the主力基差率 is 8.00%, and the current basis is 1193 [3]. Chemicals - **Sugar**: The spot price is 5,370, the主力基差率 is 2.15%, and the current basis is 101 [3]. - **Methanol**: The spot price is 2,407, the主力基差率 is -1.79%, and the current basis is -66 [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot price is 4,118, the主力基差率 is -2.83%, and the current basis is -112 [3]. - **PTA**: The spot price is 5,294, the主力基差率 is -1.07%, and the current basis is -57 [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The spot price is 6,902, the主力基差率 is -1.85%, and the current basis is -20 [3]. - **Styrene**: The spot price is 8,050, the主力基差率 is 1.78%, and the current basis is 256 [3]. - **Short - fiber Polyester**: The spot price is 6,850, the主力基差率 is 0.41%, and the current basis is -60 [3]. - **Linear Low - density Polyethylene**: The spot price is 7,116, the主力基差率 is -0.27%, and the current basis is -19 [3]. - **PVC**: The spot price is 5,114, the主力基差率 is -3.8%, and the current basis is -299 [3]. - **Rubber**: The spot price is 17,205, the主力基差率 is -2.4%, and the current basis is -905 [3]. - **20 -号 Rubber**: The spot price is 13,892, the主力基差率 is 3.25%, and the current basis is 37 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price is 1,308, the主力基差率 is -3.27%, and the current basis is -40 [3]. - **Urea**: The spot price is 1,817, the主力基差率 is -0.42%, and the current basis is -18 [3]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is 5,610, the主力基差率 is 0.92%, and the current basis is -173 [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The spot price is 482.6, the主力基差率 is -4.88%, and the current basis is -29.0 [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: The spot price is 3,69, the主力基差率 is 6.78%, and the current basis is 296 [3]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is 3,465, the主力基差率 is -1.84%, and the current basis is -255 [3]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The spot price is 3,326, the主力基差率 is -0.38%, and the current basis is 6 [3]. - **LPG**: The spot price is 4,848, the主力基差率 is -1.61%, and the current basis is 11.50 [3]. Stock Index - **CSI 300**: The spot price is 4,784.0, the主力基差率 is -0.63%, and the current basis is -17.7 [3]. - **SSE 50**: The spot price is 3,132.6, the主力基差率 is -0.32%, and the current basis is -19.5 [3]. - **CSI 500**: The spot price is 8,531.2, the主力基差率 is 0.00%, and the current basis is 0.2 [3].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周天然橡胶市场基本面与宏观情绪共振，胶价震荡上行。进口胶市场报盘上涨，工 厂观望为主，采购情绪不及上周。国产天然橡胶现货价格重心上行，期货盘面震荡走高提振市场 交易情绪，下游询盘氛围略有改善，谨慎刚需采购，实单成交一般。 行情展望：当前国内天然橡胶主产区处于停割期，泰北及越南中北部向减产停割过渡，总供应呈 现缩量。近期青岛港口总库存呈现小幅去库，保税库呈现去库，一般贸易库累库幅度明显缩窄。 海外供应进入季节性缩量阶段，船货到港较前期减少，青岛仓库入库量开始下滑，上旬胶价持续 下跌，刺激下游补货积极性，带动整体出库量提升，一般贸易累库幅度环比缩窄。需求方面，本 周国内轮胎企业产能利用率涨跌互现，部分半钢胎样本企业受外贸订单支撑，装置排产稍有提升， 对半钢胎样本企业产能利用率形成支撑；全钢胎出货表现平淡，部分 ...

本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 基本面利好不足，煤焦低位整理 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 核心观点 焦炭：根据钢联统计，截至 1 月 30 日当周，焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产 量合计 110.21 万吨，周环比小幅增加 0.04 万吨。需求方面，全国 247 家铁水日均产量 227.98 万吨，周环比小幅下降 0.12 万吨。焦炭 库存方面，本周独立焦化厂小幅累库、港口去库，钢厂大幅累库，显示 钢厂冬储补库需求开始加速释放。整体来看，焦炭基本面变化不大，且 原材料焦煤暂无持续性支撑，焦炭期货暂维持低位 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 沪铜市场周报 供给略减需求谨慎，多空分歧铜价震荡 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线冲高回落，周线涨跌幅为+2.1%，振幅13.31%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价103170元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美联储1月议息会议按下暂停键，维持利率在3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支持降息25个基点；鲍 威尔重申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据说话，并表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明可以放松政 策，建议继任者远离政治。国内方面，国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，从激发重点领域发展 活力、培育潜力领域发展动能、加强支持保障三方面提出12条政策举措。方案划出了交通、家政、网络视听、旅居、汽车 后市场、入境消费这些重点服务消费领域。基本面原料端，铜精矿TC现货指数继续下行，铜矿供给仍偏紧，加之地缘政治 方面的影响，原料成本支撑逻 ...

关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.30」 宏观市场周报 业务咨询 目录 添加客服 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 +0.08% | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.07%/本周变动-0.14BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -0.07% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.10% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周集体下跌，上证指数、创 | 本周点评：本周国债期货涨跌不一，TS、TL主力合约分 | | | 业板指跌幅较小不足1%。四期指表现分化，大盘蓝筹 | 别下跌 0.02% 、0.34% ， TF 、 T 主 力 合 约分 别 上 涨 | | | 股强于中小盘股。本周，国内经济数据较少，仅周二公 | 0.01%、0.11%。近期地方债发行计划或显示2月供给 | | | 布规上工业企业利润，在缺乏数据指引背景下，市场对 | 压力有所前置，市场对供需失衡担忧尚未完全缓解。本 | | | 成长板块 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.30」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | 0.04 | -1.32 | 4711.0 | | | IH2603 | 1.19 | -1.64 | 3074.0 | | | IC2603 | -3.42 | -2.07 | 8362.4 | | | IM2603 | -3.01 | -0.84 | 8260.6 | | 现货 | 指数名称 | | | 收盘价 | | | 沪深300 | 0.08 | -1.00 | 4706.34 | | | 上证50 | 1.13 | -1.43 | 3066.50 | | | 中证500 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI rose 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, entering the expansion range, which is bullish. The spot price shows a discount to the futures, and the inventory has increased, which is neutral. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average rising, and the main positions are net long but with long positions decreasing, both being bullish. Geopolitical disturbances remain, and copper prices have reached a new high and are currently fluctuating at a high level, so attention should be paid to position control [3]. - The global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply, while the risks include natural disasters [4]. Key Points by Directory Daily View - The supply side of copper has disturbances and smelting enterprises have production - reducing actions. The scrap copper policy is relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI is 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range, which is bullish [3]. - The spot price is 100870 with a basis of -470, showing a discount to the futures, which is neutral [3]. - On January 23, copper inventory increased by 3450 to 171700 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 12422 tons to 225937 tons compared with last week, which is neutral [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish [3]. - The main positions are net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [3]. - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply [4]. - Bearish factors: The US comprehensive tariff exceeds expectations, and the global economy is not optimistic. High copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, import is 3730000 tons, export is 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [21]. Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - The processing fee has declined [15].