1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the 05 contract showed an upward trend. Next week, demand may remain weak, and with a projected decrease in maintenance and a slight increase in scheduled production, the market may experience narrow - range adjustments [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - This week, the 05 contract opened at 4,806 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 4,921 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 2.39% [5]. - In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 344,650 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 137,430 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.86%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and scheduled production is expected to increase slightly [5]. - The overall downstream operating rate was 44.86%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and paste resin were also higher than the historical average, while the operating rate of downstream films decreased by 0.36 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [5]. - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 799.55 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 20.60%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 49.44 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 64.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1,908.23 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 3.80%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [6]. - Factory inventory was 308,109 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 223,969 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.78%, and ethylene factory inventory was 84,140 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. Social inventory was 576,486 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. The inventory days of production enterprises was 5.1 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92%. Overall inventory is at a neutral level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price and trading volume trends of the main contract, and the spread analysis of the main contract through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [10][13][16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, etc. of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit and consumption of chlor - alkali in Shandong [19][22][25][27][30]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods through charts [32][34]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream operating rate of PVC, and the cost, profit, production, and consumption of paste resin. It also presents real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment data [37][39][41][45][47]. - **Inventory**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [49]. - **Ethylene Method**: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the price difference of ethylene FOB and vinyl chloride import through charts [51]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025 [54]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to experience narrow - range adjustments next week [58].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（1.19~1.23） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周高位震荡，上周主力合约上涨1.53%，周五收盘报24290元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，消费有所影响，但注意铝代 铜机会。国内基本面上，需求处于淡季，关注后期消费变化。上周LME库存507275吨，较前周出现小幅 增加，SHFE周库存增11174吨至197053吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, with overall trading volume being average. Jinchuan's ex - factory price remained firm, and the arrival of imported goods alleviated the shortage to some extent. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices rose, with mines continuously raising their quotes. The situation in Indonesia was relatively stable but also showed a slight increase, and the bullish sentiment was strong. Ferronickel prices continued to rise, and the cost line increased. Stainless steel inventories declined slightly, and the de - stocking process was going well. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will experience wide - range fluctuations at a high level, and intraday trading is recommended. The main contract of stainless steel will trend stronger, and short - sellers should wait and see [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger this week, with average trading volume. Jinchuan's ex - factory price was firm, and the shortage was alleviated by imported goods. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices rose, ferronickel prices increased, stainless steel inventories decreased, refined nickel inventories were high, and new energy vehicle data had limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will have wide - range fluctuations at a high level, and intraday trading is the main approach. The main contract of stainless steel will trend stronger, and short - sellers should wait and see [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Red soil nickel ore prices increased (NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% up 5.56% to $57; NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% up 8.33% to $52). Battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 4.35% to 33,000 yuan/ton, while the electroplating - grade remained unchanged. Low - nickel ferronickel in Shandong rose 4.55% to 3450 yuan/ton, and high - nickel ferronickel rose 1.46% to 1040 yuan/nickel point. Shanghai electrolytic nickel rose 0.93% to 153,530 yuan/ton, Shanghai Russian nickel rose 0.32% to 145,930 yuan/ton, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased 1.04% to 152,700 yuan/ton. 304 stainless steel rose 1.26% to 15,062.5 yuan/ton [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: Nickel ore prices rose by $3 - 4 per wet ton this week, and shipping costs remained stable. As of January 22, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 12.2862 million wet tons, a decrease of 3.52%. In December 2025, nickel ore imports were 1.9928 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.33% and a year - on - year increase of 31.13%. Philippine mines' quotes jumped continuously this week, while the situation in Indonesia was relatively stable with a slight increase [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated higher with average trading volume. Jinchuan's ex - factory price provided strong support, and the arrival of imported goods relieved the shortage pressure. Globally, the nickel market is expected to remain in an oversupply pattern, with traditional demand growth being weak, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. In December 2025, China's refined nickel production was 29,058 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.39%. In December 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 23,394.299 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.64% and a year - on - year increase of 27.88%. Battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 1500 yuan/ton to 33,000 yuan/ton, while the electroplating - grade remained unchanged. LME inventory decreased by 2004 tons to 283,728 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 2614 tons to 50,794 tons [22][25][26]. - **Ferronickel Market**: Ferronickel prices rose. Low - nickel ferronickel in Shandong rose to 3450 yuan/ton, and high - nickel ferronickel rose to 1040 yuan/nickel point. In December 2025, China's ferronickel production was 21,400 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14%. In December 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 996,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.2% and a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The inventory of ferronickel in December was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 tons of nickel [43][45][48]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The price of 304 stainless steel rose by 1.26% to 15,062.5 yuan/ton. In December, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2605 million tons, with 300 - series production decreasing by 0.82% month - on - month. Stainless steel imports were 145,000 tons, and exports were 485,000 tons. As of January 23, the national stainless steel inventory was 921,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5600 tons [57][62][65]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In December, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and 7.2%. From January to December, production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2%. In December, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. The domestic power battery installation volume was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1% [73][76]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, nickel prices continued to fluctuate at a high level. The positions did not increase or decrease significantly, and both long and short positions were doing high - selling and low - buying. The MACD had alternating dead and golden crosses, indicating the possibility of further upward movement. As the 20 - day moving average rose, the lower support line gradually moved up. The high - level fluctuation pattern is expected to continue [79]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Impact on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore is neutral - bullish as mines' quotes rise and Indonesia is stable with a slight increase. Ferronickel is neutral - bullish as prices rise and the cost line moves up. Refined nickel is neutral with short - term support from Jinchuan's ex - factory price and long - term oversupply and high inventory. Stainless steel is neutral - bullish with inventory decline and cost increase. New energy is neutral with good production data but the continued substitution of ternary batteries [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will have wide - range fluctuations at a high level, and intraday trading is recommended. The main contract of stainless steel will trend stronger, and short - sellers should wait and see [84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.48%, accompanied by increased trading volume and decreased open interest. Currently, rebar supply is stable while demand is weak, and the fundamentals remain weak. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure, but the cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.30%, also with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand. Attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore rose first and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded. However, with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided, and the demand for iron ore is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **National general public budget revenue**: In 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a 1.7% decrease compared to 2024. Tax revenue increased by 0.8%, showing a steady recovery trend throughout the year, reflecting the stable and progressive development of the Chinese economy. Non - tax revenue decreased by 11.3%, mainly because the one - time arrangement of special income remittance by central units in 2024 raised the base [7]. - **Transportation fixed - asset investment**: In 2025, China's transportation fixed - asset investment continued to operate at a high level, with an expected investment of over 3.6 trillion yuan. Specifically, railway investment was 901.5 billion yuan, highway and waterway investment exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, and civil aviation investment was 120 billion yuan [8]. - **Vietnamese anti - dumping measures on Chinese H - beams**: Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that the anti - dumping duties on H - beams originating from China will expire on September 6, 2027. Interested parties should submit an application for anti - dumping sunset review investigation before February 27, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin, as well as the national average prices, are provided. For example, the rebar price in Shanghai (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,220 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,317 yuan, unchanged. The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai (4.75mm) was 3,270 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the national average price was 3,300 yuan, down 1 yuan [10]. - **Iron ore**: The prices of PB powder (at Shandong ports), Tangshan iron concentrate, and relevant indicators such as freight rates, SGX swaps, and iron ore price indices are presented. For instance, the price of PB powder was 789 yuan, down 9 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,128 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume was 1,218,321 lots, an increase of 191,871 lots, and the open interest was 1,734,110 lots, a decrease of 51,270 lots [14]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,288 yuan, with a decline of 0.30%. The trading volume was 523,900 lots, an increase of 89,353 lots, and the open interest was 1,529,652 lots, a decrease of 17,466 lots [14]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 791.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.06%. The trading volume was 278,296 lots, a decrease of 29,418 lots, and the open interest was 541,228 lots, a decrease of 14,164 lots [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 to 2026 [16][17][19]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, including their seasonal changes and环比 changes [24][25][28]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making ratio of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills from 2022 to 2026 [32][34][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, and the inventory increase has expanded. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of rebar increased slightly by 0.28 tons. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the shutdown of short - process steel mills, the supply is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar continues to weaken, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions have decreased. The weak demand pattern in the off - season remains unchanged, which drags down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, but the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the steel price oscillates and stabilizes under the dominant optimistic sentiment. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: There are changes in both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil, and the inventory reduction has narrowed. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.80 tons, reaching a relatively high level again, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure has not subsided. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows certain resilience, with a slight increase in weekly apparent demand, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold - rolled products. However, attention should be paid to the potential contradiction accumulation, and the external demand for exports is average. The demand resilience needs to be tracked. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand, and attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions [40]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed much, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore runs smoothly. The daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly this week. The contradictions in the steel market in the off - season are accumulating, and steel mills mainly conduct normal restocking before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will continue to be weak. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has continued to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have stabilized. According to the shipping schedule, the reduction in port arrivals is limited, and the domestic ore supply is stable, coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided. Thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded, but the supply pressure remains high, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [41].

证券日报网讯1月30日，国投资本（600061）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，2025年子公司国投证 券营业收入同比下降，主要由于旗下国投期货根据财政部有关标准仓单的会计政策要求，对相关收入确 认口径进行了规范调整，导致"其他业务收入"科目同比有所减少。该调整属于会计处理层面的统一规 范，不影响公司实际经营现金流与业务实质，亦不会对国投证券的持续经营能力与长期发展战略构成影 响。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, geopolitical events supported the fuel oil price to fluctuate upwards. The high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,737 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 8.52%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,187 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4.59% [5] - The spot price spread of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has risen to the highest premium level in more than four months. Demand warmed up slightly after the year - end holidays, and bunkering activities are expected to be stronger before the Lunar New Year in February. However, sufficient arbitrage cargoes from the West will pressure the market fundamentals. The volume of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargoes arriving in Singapore in January is expected to rebound, and the inflow of cargoes will increase the regional inventory in January and February [5] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market fluctuates within a range under stable bunker demand and sufficient immediate supply. Seasonal demand shortage in the power generation industry may suppress the Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil market [5] - International crude oil prices will mainly fluctuate slightly upwards. Geopolitical events may continue to support the fuel oil price to fluctuate upwards. Operation suggestions: trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 2,650 - 2,850 range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,100 - 3,300 range in the short term [5] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - ly Views - Geopolitical events supported fuel oil prices to rise. High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil prices increased by 8.52% and 4.59% respectively. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil spot spread reached a four - month high. Downstream demand warmed up, but Western arbitrage cargoes will pressure the market. The high - sulfur fuel oil market fluctuates within a range, and the power generation demand shortage suppresses the market. International crude oil prices may rise slightly, and operation suggestions are given [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: The FU main contract price rose from 2,463 to 2,523, an increase of 2.44%, and the LU main contract price rose from 2,931 to 3,066, an increase of 4.61% [6] - **Spot prices**: Among various spot products, the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 0.43%, while the prices of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil, Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil, and Singapore diesel decreased by - 0.26%, - 1.34%, - 0.36%, and - 0.85% respectively. The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The report presents charts of Singapore fuel oil consumption, China fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking gross margin, but lacks specific data descriptions in the text [8][9][10] 3.4 Inventory Data - In Singapore, from November 12, 2025, to January 21, 2026, the fuel oil inventory showed fluctuations. For example, on November 19, 2025, the inventory increased by 2570,000 barrels, and on November 26, 2025, it decreased by 2850,000 barrels [11] - The report also includes a Singapore fuel oil inventory season chart and a Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trend chart, but lacks specific data descriptions in the text [12][13] 3.5 Spread Data - The report shows a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread, but lacks specific data descriptions in the text [15]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Although the inventory pressure is increasing, the demand-side restocking before the Spring Festival supports the ore price. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis, with the futures at a discount [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fluctuated within the day, closing at 791.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.88% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 278,000 lots, the open interest was 541,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.424 billion yuan. The futures price may continue to be slightly strong in the near future [1] - The spot prices of mainstream port varieties and swaps declined slightly. The basis widened slightly, and the iron ore futures contract showed a back structure + positive basis [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while those from Brazil and non-mainstream countries still declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, with supply-side disturbances expected due to weather. The molten iron output decreased slightly month-on-month, and the steel mill profit margin weakened. The steel mills' restocking speed accelerated, and the inventory pressure continued to accumulate [2] - The decrease in arrivals eased the short-term supply pressure, but the inventory pressure continued to increase. The commodity sentiment was strong, and the pre-festival restocking on the demand side supported the ore price. The supply and demand on the real side remained to be verified [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, the week continued the pattern of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand was slow, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the willingness of residents and enterprises for long - term financing was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented, and the market was waiting for policy effects and data confirmation [3] - Overseas, the US consumption remained resilient, but its internal driving force was weakening. Core inflation continued to cool, but the stickiness of service items remained. The market's focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, and the overseas macro - environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased [3] Viewpoint Summary - The iron ore fundamentals show that the supply pressure has eased slightly, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures market shows a slightly bullish and volatile trend [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 豆粕：Safras & Mercado：虽然今年巴西大豆产量有望创下历史最高纪录， 但农民们仍然对出售大豆犹豫不决。由于大豆供应预期充足，豆价低迷，在一个 月内，大豆价格下跌了高达 10 雷亚尔/袋，目前农户的销售速度依然缓慢，这种 环境可能导致大豆利润进一步下滑。迄今为止种植户仅预售了 30.3%的新豆，上 年同期为 39%，过去五年均值为 41.1%。USDA 出口销售：截至 2026 年 1 月 22 日， 2025/26 年度（始于 9 月 1 日），美国对中国（大陆地区）大豆出口量为 351.5 万吨，低于去年同期的 1777.2 万吨。当周美国对中国装运 82.85 万吨大豆。 2025/26 年度迄今美国对中国已销售但未装运的大豆为 965.4 万吨，去年同期 244.4 万吨。 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于我的钢铁网、国粮中心、 McDonald Pelz、金十期货网站。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 12 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The overall situation of coke is biased towards a volatile trend, with a short - term continuation of the rebound. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy and pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of January 30, the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 1012.35 tons, at a 7 - and - a - half - month high, with a year - on - year decline of 3.44% [1] - The profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 55 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke turned positive to 2 yuan/ton, that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 0 yuan/ton, that of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 41 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 92 yuan/ton [1] - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.32% to 79% month - on - month and 1.02% year - on - year. The profitability rate decreased by 1.3% to 39.39% compared with last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 85.47%, and the daily average hot metal output decreased by 0.12 tons to 227.98 tons month - on - month [1] - Near the Spring Festival, the supply of upstream coking coal is expected to decline. The coking coal inventory of mines decreased by 7.2 tons to 267.2 tons; the comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 46 tons to 2864.34 tons month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 8.57% [1] News - Mysteel surveyed the Spring Festival holiday situation of 523 coking coal mines across the country. Currently, there are 395 mines in production, with a total production capacity of 757 million tons. A total of 388 mines have plans to stop production during the holiday, with a production capacity of 744 million tons affected, resulting in an impact on raw coal production of 1.868 million tons [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen the comprehensive supervision of key product quality and rectify the "involution - style" competition [2] Supply - Demand Pattern - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by the cost of upstream coking coal, the demand of downstream steel, and the guidance of macro - policies. The comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, with overall weak supply and demand [2] - Downstream steel mills have successively announced shutdown and maintenance plans during the Spring Festival. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the demand for coke further declines [2] - However, coking is in continuous loss, and coking enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. There have been frequent news about fiscal and monetary policies at the macro level, and there are still expectations for subsequent policies [2]

| 国校期货 11 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月30日 | | 黄金 | 白银 女女女 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | 女女女 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属剧烈波动,盘中振幅超过10%。市场聚焦地缘局势变化,俄乌方面普京同意部分停火一周,美伊 依然处于焦灼状态，随时可能发动重大打击，不过特朗普表示计划与伊朗进行对话。此外特朗普称利率应下 降2到3个百分点，计划今晚公布美联储主席人选。市场消息称此前偏鹰派的沃什可能超出市场预期的成为新 任主席。短期信息繁杂,市场波动风险高，控制仓位谨慎参与。 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势 ...