Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking its first interest rate cut of 2025, but this move did not significantly impact the cryptocurrency market, which had anticipated a deeper reduction [1][2][7]. Market Reaction - The Federal Open Market Committee's decision to lower rates to the lowest level this year had minimal effect on digital assets, as the market had already priced in these expectations [2][8]. - Bitcoin experienced a brief increase from $114,794 to $117,198 but ultimately closed lower within 24 hours [2]. - Ethereum followed a similar trend, rising from $4,429 to $4,586 before retreating, remaining approximately 8% below its all-time high of $4,923 [3]. Liquidation Events - The lack of sustained upward movement in the cryptocurrency market led to significant liquidations, with around $400 million in long and short positions being wiped out within 24 hours post-announcement, affecting over 110,000 traders [3][8]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of at least two more rate cuts later in the year, contingent on economic conditions [4][8]. - Futures markets adjusted to reflect expectations of two to three additional cuts before the end of 2025 [4]. Political Pressure - President Donald Trump reiterated calls for more aggressive rate cuts, despite dissent from one of his appointees to the Fed, Stephen Miran, who favored a deeper cut [5]. Market Sentiment - Analysts noted that the muted response in digital assets suggests a "sell the news" environment, but long-term sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of increased liquidity benefiting Bitcoin and altcoins [8].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve (Fed) successfully managed to achieve consensus on a rate cut, which is generally positive for bonds, stocks, and the economy [2][3] - There is uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, with some members of the Fed indicating no further cuts this year, which may create volatility in the markets [4][5] - The upcoming changes in the Fed's personnel and structure may complicate the outlook for monetary policy in the next year [5] Group 2 - The Bank of England's focus is shifting towards managing bond supply and inflation concerns, which are affecting long-term yields in global bond markets [7] - Jobless claims data has been unreliable, raising questions about the true state of the labor market and its implications for the Fed's decisions [9][10] - The market's attention may pivot back to inflation unless there are significantly negative job data, indicating a cautious approach to economic outlook [10]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise interest rates in October, regardless of the outcome of the ruling party's leadership race, particularly if Sanae Takaichi becomes the next premier [1][2] - Former BOJ executive Tomoyuki Shimoda believes that Takaichi's potential victory will have a limited impact on monetary policy, despite her advocacy for increased fiscal spending [2][3] Currency and Economic Impact - A weak yen, which boosts exports, raises concerns for policymakers due to increased import costs and persistent inflation above the BOJ's 2% target [3][4] - The yen falling below 150 to the dollar could provoke complaints from the U.S. administration, which favors a weak-dollar policy to enhance U.S. exports [4] Economic Indicators - The BOJ is expected to raise rates at its meeting on October 29-30 if stock prices remain stable and the "tankan" business sentiment survey does not show significant deterioration [4][5] - Corporate profits are stable, and structural labor shortages are likely to drive wage increases, contributing to sustained inflation [5] Market Expectations - A Reuters poll indicates that a majority of economists anticipate a 25-basis-point rate hike by year-end, with opinions divided on the timing, focusing on October and January [6] - Takaichi is associated with an "Abenomics"-style approach, which combines fiscal and monetary stimulus, while her main rival, Shinjiro Koizumi, has unclear views on BOJ policy [6][7] Historical Context - The BOJ ended its extensive stimulus program last year and raised short-term rates to 0.5% in January, believing Japan was close to achieving its 2% inflation target [7]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday explained why the three missions Congress imposed on the central bank add up to two in real-world conditions. ...

However, Mr Powell said his colleagues’ forecasts were “subject to uncertainty” and insisted monetary policy was “not on a pre-set path”.Markets are anticipating another couple of cuts from the Fed by the year’s end, with more to follow in 2026. In its statement announcing the September rate cut, the Fed said only that it would “carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks”. About half the Fed’s rate-setters expect another two or more quarter-point cuts this year, taking th ...

Summary of Federal Reserve System Update / Briefing September 17, 2025 Key Points Related to the Federal Reserve and Economic Conditions Economic Growth and Employment - The Federal Reserve noted a moderation in economic activity, with GDP growth at approximately 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year [1][2] - Job gains have slowed significantly, averaging only 29,000 per month over the last three months, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.3% in August [2][3] - The labor market is experiencing a decline in both supply and demand for workers, leading to increased downside risks to employment [3][6] Inflation Trends - Total Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices rose by 2.7% over the 12 months ending in August, with core PCE prices increasing by 2.9% [4] - Inflation expectations have increased due to tariffs, but longer-term expectations remain aligned with the Fed's 2% inflation goal [4][20] - The median projection for total PCE inflation is 3.0% for this year, decreasing to 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 [4] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the policy interest rate by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 4% to 4.25% [5][6] - The FOMC aims to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices, adjusting policy in response to evolving economic conditions [5][6] - The median participant in the FOMC projects the federal funds rate to be 3.6% at the end of this year, down from previous projections [8] Risks and Future Outlook - The balance of risks has shifted, with increased downside risks to employment and a more neutral policy stance being adopted [6][16] - The Fed acknowledges the potential for persistent inflation but believes that the current labor market conditions warrant a cautious approach [20][25] - The Fed is committed to monitoring economic data closely and adjusting its policy as necessary to achieve its goals [29][70] Labor Market Dynamics - The Fed highlighted that the slowdown in job creation is largely due to a decline in labor force growth, influenced by lower immigration and participation rates [3][12] - Concerns were raised about the impact of a softening labor market on younger and minority job seekers, who are particularly vulnerable [26][40] Housing Market Considerations - The Fed recognizes that high interest rates have exacerbated housing affordability issues, impacting household formation and wealth accumulation [58][61] - The ongoing housing shortage is identified as a deeper, structural issue that the Fed cannot directly address through monetary policy [61] Conclusion - The Federal Reserve remains focused on its dual mandate while navigating a complex economic landscape characterized by low unemployment, moderated growth, and evolving inflation dynamics [9][70] - The Fed's actions are guided by data and the need to balance risks to both employment and inflation, with a commitment to achieving long-term economic stability [5][70]

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Sept. 17, 2025: Dow Gains After Fed Decision Last Updated: Updated 4 hours ago Stocks Edge Higher After Fed Votes for Rate Cut By Network Connor Smith Stocks perked up after the Federal Reserve said it would cut interest rates by a quarter point for the first time since December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 400 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 was up 0.1. The Nasdaq Composite was still down 0.2%. Heading into the 2 p.m. ET decision, the Dow was up while the S&P and Nas ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's liquidity facilities are expected to experience significant activity as the month closes, impacting the central bank's balance sheet reduction process [1][2]. Group 1: Liquidity Facilities - The Fed's reserve repo facility and the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) are anticipated to see major inflows due to month- and quarter-end volatility, amidst ongoing balance sheet reductions that are limiting liquidity [2][3]. - Analysts from Wrightson ICAP project that the reverse repo facility could increase from negligible usage to as high as $275 billion by the end of the month [3]. - The SRF is expected to see inflows of around $50 billion by September 30, significantly higher than the $11 billion recorded on June 30 [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Accurately assessing market liquidity at quarter-end is challenging due to transient factors affecting money flow, which are often reversed at the start of a new quarter [5]. - The performance of the Fed's tools is crucial for maintaining control over short-term interest rate targets, which is influenced by the management of its cash and asset holdings [6]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The Fed is anticipated to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points following its upcoming policy meeting, with a policy statement and economic projections to be released [7]. - Since 2022, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet, which had expanded to approximately $9 trillion during the pandemic, as part of efforts to normalize market liquidity [8].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first interest rate cut since December, which could have significant implications for consumer confidence and corporate spending [2][3] - Concerns have been raised about the Fed's ability to manage inflation and maintain financial stability, reflecting a shift in perception compared to previous administrations [2][4] - Recent political drama surrounding the Fed, including threats from President Trump and changes in governance, may further impact the institution's credibility and market reactions [4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The anticipated interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points aims to stimulate various economic activities such as homebuying and hiring [3] - There is uncertainty regarding how other variables, such as tariffs and technology, will influence the effectiveness of the rate cut [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Sentiment - Leaders express skepticism about the Fed's current management of inflation and labor market shifts, indicating a lack of confidence in its decision-making [2][4] - The potential for the President to claim victory from a rate cut could further complicate the Fed's credibility and market dynamics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve meeting is ongoing, with Lisa Cook participating despite potential legal challenges, and her views on monetary policy are expected to align closely with Fed Chair Jay Powell's stance on interest rates [1][2][5]. Group 1: Lisa Cook's Role and Perspectives - Lisa Cook is confirmed to be at the Fed meeting, and her historical tendency has been to side with the chair, indicating a dovish approach to monetary policy [1][4]. - It is anticipated that Cook will support a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting her alignment with Powell's views [5]. - Cook has expressed concerns about the labor market's health, noting a rise in unemployment and a slowdown in hiring, although she has not provided extensive commentary on the subject [6][7]. Group 2: Steven Byron's Influence - Steven Byron's presence at the meeting is viewed as a potential wildcard, with speculation that he may dissent if the Fed opts for a 25 basis point cut, advocating instead for a 50 basis point reduction [8][9]. - Byron's dual role as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers while participating in the Fed meeting raises questions about his independence and the potential for conflicts of interest [9][10]. Group 3: Independence and Interactions - The independence of Fed members is under scrutiny, particularly regarding the interactions between Fed officials and the White House, especially with Byron's connections to the Trump administration [15][16]. - Historically, Fed chairs have maintained a distance from the executive branch, with limited direct communication with presidents [17]. - Concerns about the revolving door between the Fed and the White House have been highlighted, with examples of past officials transitioning between roles [18].