进口方面，铁矿砂、原油和煤等主要大宗商品进口价格下跌，机电产品进口值增长。 新华社北京6月9日电（记者邹多为、张晓洁）海关总署9日发布数据显示，今年前5个月，我国货物 贸易进出口总值17.94万亿元，同比增长2.5%，增速较前4个月加快0.1个百分点。其中，出口增长 7.2%，进口下降3.8%。 5月当月进出口3.81万亿元，比去年同期增长2.7%。其中，出口增长6.3%，进口下降2.1%。 海关总署统计分析司司长吕大良表示，今年以来，我国经济持续回升向好，货物贸易在外部压力下 保持较强韧性。进入5月份，我国进出口延续增长态势，特别是中美经贸高层会谈之后，增速明显加 快，当月在同比少2个工作日的情况下，实现平稳增长。 出口方面，机电产品仍为我国出口主力。前5个月，我国出口机电产品6.4万亿元，同比增长9.3%， 占出口比重的六成。其中，工业机器人、电动汽车、集成电路、工程机械分别增长55.4%、19%、 18.9%、10.7%。 值得一提的是，同期，我国对共建"一带一路"国家合计进出口9.24万亿元，同比增长4.2%；对非洲 国家进出口9632.1亿元，增长12.4%，规模创历史同期新高。（完） 作为进出口贸 ...

风险提示：个股盈利不及预期，行业竞争加剧，贸易摩擦加剧，政策不及 预期等。 财政部：增值税法实施条例列入 2025 年度 立法工作安排中 ◼ 今日新股：暂无。 证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20250606 2025 年 06 月 06 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 薛路熹 执业证书：S0600123070027 xuelx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《金融监管总局：以金融科技创新助 力实体经济发展》 北交所定期报告 内容目录 | 1. 资本市场新闻 | | --- | | 2. 行业新闻 | | 3. 市场表现 | | 3.1. 北交所板块表现 | | 3.2. 北交所个股表现 | | 4. 公司公告 | | ...

Core Insights - Shanghai's foreign trade import and export reached 1.4 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] - Exports amounted to 629.02 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Trade with emerging markets has been effective, with imports and exports recorded with over 200 countries and regions, and growth achieved with 166 trading partners [1] Group 1 - Trade with Belt and Road countries reached nearly 600 billion yuan, growing by 11.9% [1] - Trade connections with key regions such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe have strengthened, with import and export growth exceeding 20% [1] - Shanghai Customs has been promoting cross-border trade facilitation for eight consecutive years, aiming to create a safe, convenient, and efficient business environment at ports [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Customs launched the "Shanghai Customs 2025 Cross-Border Trade Facilitation Action Plan," consisting of 33 measures across five areas to boost enterprise confidence and enhance foreign trade quality [2] - The plan includes speeding up customs clearance for key products, expanding multimodal transport services, and enhancing digital technology applications [2] - A pilot program for facilitating the inspection of first-time imported consumer goods has been introduced, utilizing an innovative "whitelist + differentiated qualification assessment" model [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff uncertainties on China's exports, emphasizing the need to understand the core contradictions in the export transmission path and to closely monitor key variables through a high-frequency tracking framework [4][17]. Group 1: Tariff Uncertainty and Export Impact - The fluctuations in Trump's tariffs create significant estimation errors regarding their impact on China's overall exports, making it crucial to identify key variables and track their changes [4][17]. - The core elements affecting U.S. import demand under tariff pressures include U.S. tariff policies, the transmission of tariffs to import prices, and the impact on consumer purchasing power [17]. Group 2: High-Frequency Tracking Framework - A high-frequency tracking framework has been established, consisting of six categories and sixteen indicators to monitor global trade demand, Chinese export volume and price, direct trade flow between China and the U.S., potential transshipment trade, U.S. import demand, and effective tariff rates [18]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI are used to track global trade volume, indicating a downward trend in global cargo export volume growth [5][24]. - The RJ/CRB Index is employed to monitor global trade price growth, showing a recovery from -0.8% to 1.2% between April and May [6][25]. Group 3: Monitoring Chinese Exports - Container throughput at monitored ports is used to track China's export volume, which has shown a marginal decline from 7.3% to 6.7% year-on-year as of May 25 [7][29]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) serves as a leading indicator for China's export prices, indicating a potential weakening trend in export prices over the next three months [8][33]. - Import data from South Korea and Vietnam are utilized as synchronous indicators for China's overall export performance, with recent data suggesting a marginal weakening in exports [9][41]. Group 4: U.S. Import Demand and Tariff Rates - U.S. import demand is tracked through IHS Markit customs data, revealing a decline in import amounts and container volumes, reflecting the impact of new tariffs [13][68]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from 6.3% in April to 8.1% in May, indicating a rising burden on imports [14][86]. - Predictions from the National Retail Federation suggest a significant drop in U.S. container imports, with expectations of a -13% year-on-year decline in May [78][79].

Core Points - Germany's export value in April 2025 decreased by 1.7% month-on-month, reaching approximately €131.1 billion [1] - The import value for Germany in April increased by 3.9% month-on-month, totaling around €116.5 billion [1] Export and Import Analysis - Exports to EU countries amounted to €72.9 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.9% month-on-month, while imports from the EU rose by 4.5% to €59.8 billion [1] - Exports to non-EU countries fell by 4.8% to €58.1 billion, with imports from these countries increasing by 3.4% to €56.7 billion [1] Country-Specific Insights - The United States remains Germany's most significant export market, but exports to the U.S. saw a substantial decline of 10.5% in April, dropping to €13 billion, the lowest since October 2024 [1] - Imports from the U.S. increased by 3.9% to €8.4 billion [1] - Imports from China continued to lead, decreasing by 4.1% to €13.9 billion [1] Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that U.S. trade policies are negatively impacting Germany's export economy [1] - Despite a slight increase in exports during the first quarter of the year, it is believed that this was due to companies preemptively completing transactions in anticipation of potential stricter tariffs from the Trump administration [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese government reported a 3% decline in export value for the first 20 days of May compared to the same period last year [1] - In contrast, export value for the first 20 days of April increased by 2.3%, with total exports for April showing a growth of 2% [1] - The average export growth over the year leading up to April was 6.2% [1]

证券时报记者陈见南 与此同时，民营经济的活力也在显著提升。市场监管总局公布的数据显示，今年一季度，全国新注册的 民营企业达到197.9万户，同比增长7.1%，增速超过了过去三年的平均水平。截至3月底，全国登记在册 民营企业数量超过5700万户，占企业总数的92.3%。民营企业的开工率也在持续上升，完全开工的企业 比例达到50.4%，较上一季度提高了11个百分点。这些数据表明，企业家信心向好态势明显，民营经济 正在稳健复苏，并为整体经济的增长注入新的动力。 今年一季度，民营经济投资、生产、进出口"三箭齐发"。从生产经营看，2025年一季度，全国规模以上 工业企业中，私营企业增加值同比增长7.3%，增速不仅较去年全年有所回升，更是超过了全部规模以 上工业企业的整体增速水平，有力地凸显了民营经济的工业生产活力，为整体工业经济的增长注入了强 劲动力。 在投资领域，民间投资迎来了积极回暖迹象，2025年一季度，民间投资同比增长0.4%，成功扭转了上 年全年下降的态势。更值得注意的是，制造业民间投资同比增长9.7%，基础设施民间投资增长9.3%， 分别快于各自领域的平均增速，反映出民营企业在关键产业领域投资信心的恢复与提 ...

金十数据6月5日讯，加拿大统计局数据显示，由于美国实施的关税抽走了对加拿大商品的需求，加拿大 4月份的贸易逆差扩大至创纪录的71亿加元（52亿美元）。尽管加拿大对世界其他地区的出口有所增 长，但未能弥补对美国的出口下降。加拿大对美出口下降了15.7%，这是连续第三个月下降。自1月见 顶以来，加拿大对美国的出口已下降超过26%。加拿大统计局表示，4月份的出口总额暴跌10.8%，降至 604亿加元，这是近两年来的最低水平，也是连续第三个月下降，降幅为五年来的最大一次。除了对美 出口下降，较低的原油价格和走强的加元也是加拿大贸易逆差扩大的因素。 关税重创出口，加拿大4月贸易逆差扩大至历史新高 ...

Core Insights - In April, the U.S. trade deficit saw its largest recorded decline, primarily due to a historic drop in imports, indicating a halt in the "export rush" by some U.S. companies [1] Group 1: Trade Deficit Overview - The trade deficit for goods and services narrowed significantly by 55.5% in April, reaching $61.6 billion, marking a new low for 2023 and reversing the sharp expansion trend observed in the first quarter [1] - The median forecast for the trade deficit was $66 billion, while the previous month's deficit was $140.5 billion [1] Group 2: Import and Export Dynamics - In April, imports of goods and services fell by a record 16.3%, while exports increased by 3% [2] - The sharp decline in consumer goods imports amounted to $33 billion, largely driven by a significant drop in pharmaceutical imports [3] Group 3: Trade Deficit with Specific Countries - The trade deficit with Ireland, a major source of pharmaceuticals, narrowed significantly from $29.3 billion to $9.5 billion after seasonal adjustments [3] - The trade deficit with China decreased to $19.7 billion, the lowest level since March 2020 [3] - Deficits with Canada and Mexico also saw reductions, although Canada experienced a record expansion in its trade deficit due to a significant drop in exports [4] Group 4: Economic Implications - After adjusting for inflation, the total U.S. goods trade deficit in April narrowed to $85.6 billion, the lowest level since the end of 2023 [6] - Analysts suggest that the sharp reduction in the trade deficit in April indicates that trade may contribute significantly to U.S. GDP in the second quarter, contrasting with its role in the 0.2% annualized decline in GDP in the first quarter [6]

据媒体6月5日报道，越南工贸部周四确认，已在美方设定的截止日期前，向华盛顿提交了回应贸易要求 的文件，展现贸易协商的"决心和诚意"。而此举关乎越南能否避免美国高达46%的"对等关税"重击。 此前央视新闻援引媒体报道称，距离对等关税恢复期限仅剩五周，特朗普政府发出紧急信函要求各国在 本周三前提交贸易谈判的最佳方案。美国政府正在向谈判伙伴施压，要求各国在关键领域提供最佳方 案，包括购买美国工农业产品的关税和配额方案。4月9日，特朗普暂停了对大多数美国贸易伙伴的对等 关税，暂停期限为90天，将高额关税的生效期推迟到7月9日。 消息公布后，越南VN30股指小幅下跌0.2%，出口龙头股Vingroup跌超1%。 当46%的关税利剑悬在头顶时，越南选择了迅速妥协。 该国目前面临46%的"对等关税"威胁，一旦生效将严重冲击其以对美出口为支柱的增长模式——美国正 是越南的最大出口市场。 越南还曾对美国作出过"零关税"承诺。据央视网此前报道，4月4日，越南领导人同特朗普通电话，强调 愿意对美商品实行"零关税"。 风险提示及免责条款 越南率先"妥协"，越美双方同意加快谈判进程 报道称，越南工贸部在声明中表示已提交回应美国贸易要求 ...