二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 6 日 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 不锈钢：库存轻微消化，钢价修复但弹性有限 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 2）有色网 6 月底镍铁库存 37534 吨，同/环比+66%/+8%，库存压力边际增加。 3）2025 年 7 月 3 日，钢联不锈钢社会总库存 115.68 万吨，周环比下降 0.20%。其中，冷轧不锈钢 库存总量 62.55 万吨，周环比下降 0.53%，热轧不锈钢库存总量 53.12 万吨，周环比下降 0.18%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 沪镍基本面：矿端下方支撑边际松动，冶炼端难以给予上行驱动。镍价下方空间取决于成本，7 月整 体火法路径成本仍然偏高，但印尼镍矿溢价边际回调 2 至 25 美金/湿吨，火法现金成本预计轻微下移 1.3% 左右。就预期而言，市场关于印尼配额增加的消息缓和矿端担忧情绪，叠加往年的第三季度常常是印尼配 额释放和镍矿溢价回调的阶段，炒作情绪有所降温。印尼矿业部长表示计划将采矿配额期限从 ...

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 ◆ 供应端如期放量。随着锌精矿的放量兑现，炼厂及港口锌精矿库存处在相对充裕的位 置，且目前炼厂利润处于历史中位。国内炼厂集中检修后带来增量，叠加炼厂搬迁、 新建项目投产，供应压力增加，过剩逻辑或将显性化，逐步体现在社会库存累积之上。 ◆ 消费端迈入传统淡季，下游开工率边际下滑，补库空间有所收缩。终端内需消费迈入 淡季，外需抢出口的程度在每一轮次中逐步走弱，该点在5月出口数据中已有验证体 现。因此，下游开工率存在下调趋势，需求端收缩，下游原料库存本位于相对高位， 继续补库空间逐步收缩。 ◆ 短期内社库累库幅度相对较为缓和，空头较为谨慎，叠加宏观氛围阶段性走暖带来一 定的提振，导致锌价难以出现流畅下跌趋势，以横盘震荡为主。低库存实则部分受到 实则部分受到炼厂锌合金产量增加、厂提比例提升以及部分锌锭在二季度低价背景下 转移至下游原料库存三个因素的影响，后续供需的过剩也将体现在多个环节的累库当 中，中长期仍以逢高空思路为主。内外策略方面，国内供增需减淡季期间沪锌或相对 更弱，可以继续持有中短期即季度以内的正套头寸。 国泰君安期货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of the U.S. stock market and the commodity market, highlighting the strong performance of gold and other precious metals amid rising risk aversion and uncertainty in global economic policies, particularly due to Trump's trade policies and fiscal measures [1][11][14]. Market Performance - Last week, the international spot gold price opened at $3,271.90, reaching a high of $3,365.39 and a low of $3,247.11, closing at $3,335.00, an increase of $61.61 or 1.88% [1]. - The U.S. dollar index opened at 97.21, peaked at 97.42, and closed at 96.98, down 0.26% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 6,719.49 points, closing at 6,866.84 points, up 2.14% and reaching a historical high [3]. - Silver prices rose by 2.60%, platinum by 3.81%, and palladium by 0.26% [3]. Stock Market Trends - The Dow Jones index increased by 2.30%, the Nasdaq by 1.62%, and the S&P 500 by 1.72%, indicating strong performance in the U.S. stock market [6][8]. - The article notes a significant divide in market sentiment, with both risk aversion and risk preference appearing to strengthen [6]. Precious Metals and Commodities - The demand for safe-haven assets has boosted the performance of precious metals, with overall gains exceeding 2% and silver prices reaching a 13-year high [7]. - In contrast, the commodity market, particularly basic metals, has shown weaker performance, indicating a lack of clear direction [9]. Economic and Policy Implications - The article highlights concerns from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) regarding the impact of Trump's trade protectionist policies on global economic uncertainty and inflation risks [11]. - A UBS survey indicates a rising trend among central banks to increase gold reserves, with 52% planning to do so in the next year, reflecting a shift towards gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks [12]. - The IMF warns that Trump's fiscal policies could exacerbate the U.S. deficit, potentially leading to a financial crisis [13]. Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current hesitation in the commodity market may not last long, with potential upward trends if the U.S. dollar continues to weaken [19]. - Observations of the NYMEX crude oil prices indicate a possible bullish trend despite recent fluctuations, supported by technical indicators [21][23]. - The article concludes that the macroeconomic environment remains complex, with potential implications for inflation and commodity demand [14][15].

湖南邦普汽车循环有限公司，成立于2008年，位于长沙市，是一家以从事废弃资源综合利用业为主的企 业。企业注册资本5313万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，湖南邦普汽车循环有限公司共对外投资了1 家企业，参与招投标项目29次，专利信息644条，此外企业还拥有行政许可36个。 宁德邦普循环科技有限公司，成立于2019年，位于宁德市，是一家以从事其他制造业为主的企业。企业 注册资本129000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，宁德邦普循环科技有限公司参与招投标项目20次， 专利信息63条，此外企业还拥有行政许可331个。 来源：金融界 金融界2025年7月4日消息，国家知识产权局信息显示，广东邦普循环科技有限公司、湖南邦普循环科技 有限公司、湖南邦普汽车循环有限公司、宁德邦普循环科技有限公司取得一项名为"一种正极材料烧结 装置及烧结方法"的专利，授权公告号CN110864545B，申请日期为2019年11月。 天眼查资料显示，广东邦普循环科技有限公司，成立于2005年，位于佛山市，是一家以从事有色金属冶 炼和压延加工业为主的企业。企业注册资本14747.326875万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，广东邦普 循环科技有限 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of the special action is to promote standardized law enforcement related to enterprises, addressing difficulties faced by businesses, and creating a conducive development environment [1][3] - The inspection team held a meeting to discuss the progress and challenges of the special action, emphasizing the importance of administrative law enforcement in shaping government image and public trust [3][8] - Various enforcement departments reported on their responsibilities and exchanged views on the challenges faced during law enforcement processes [3][6] Group 2 - The inspection team visited several companies to gather feedback from business leaders regarding law enforcement practices and to discuss standardization [5][6] - The team acknowledged the efforts made by the county government in implementing the special action and outlined requirements for further improvement, including enhancing law enforcement efficiency and optimizing service for businesses [8] - Emphasis was placed on adhering to local jurisdiction principles, establishing collaboration mechanisms, and prohibiting any form of coercive enforcement or profit-seeking behavior by law enforcement officials [8]

国联民生证券承销保荐有限公司关于 河南豫光金铅股份有限公司 为控股股东提供担保的核查意见 （一）担保基本情况 鉴于公司控股股东河南豫光金铅集团有限责任公司（以下简称"豫光集团"） 一直以来积极支持公司发展，为满足公司持续经营需要适时对公司进行融资支持， 且长期为公司的融资业务提供担保，本着互利共赢、协同发展的原则，经公司 的 2023 年年度股东大会审议通过，公司与豫光集团签订了互保框架协议。根据 互保框架协议，豫光集团及其控股子公司为公司及公司全资子公司提供的担保额 度为 80 亿元，公司为豫光集团及其控股子公司提供的担保额度为 25 亿元。此次 互保期限两年，即自 2023 年年度股东大会审议通过之日起至 2025 年年度股东大 会召开之日止。现公司拟为豫光集团在华夏银行股份有限公司郑州分行办理的授 信业务进行担保，担保额度为 5,000 万元。 截至目前，公司已为豫光集团及其控股子公司豫光锌业提供的担保总额为 （二）公司就本次担保事项履行的内部决策程序及尚需履行的决策程序 公司于 2025 年 7 月 3 日召开第九届董事会独立董事专门会议 2025 年第四 次会议对该关联担保事项进行了审议，全体独立董 ...

Group 1 - The company, Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd., is issuing convertible bonds to unspecified investors, with a total issuance scale of RMB 710 million [4][6] - The bonds, named "Yuguang Convertible Bonds" (code: 110096), have a maturity period of 6 years, from August 12, 2024, to August 11, 2030 [2][4] - The interest rates for the bonds are set at 0.10% for the first year, 0.30% for the second year, and 0.60% for the third year, with annual interest payments [3][4] Group 2 - The initial conversion price for the bonds is set at RMB 6.17 per share, which will be adjusted to RMB 5.95 per share due to a cash dividend distribution of RMB 0.225 per share [6][9] - The conversion period for the bonds will start on February 16, 2025, and end on August 11, 2030 [5][11] - The company has received a credit rating of AA for the bonds, with a stable outlook [6][7] Group 3 - The company has approved a profit distribution plan for 2024, amounting to RMB 245.31 million, which will impact the bond conversion price [6][7] - The company has decided to cancel its supervisory board and amend its articles of association to enhance corporate governance [7][8]

Core Points - The independent directors of Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd. held their fourth special meeting of the ninth board on July 3, 2025, via communication methods, with all three independent directors present, confirming the meeting's legality and compliance with relevant regulations [1] - The company plans to sign purchase contracts for lead slag and copper slag with the related party Gansu Baohui Industrial Group Co., Ltd., which is deemed necessary for normal production operations and compliant with national laws and regulations [1] - The independent directors reviewed the related transactions, confirming they adhere to principles of fairness and market pricing, ensuring no harm to the company or shareholders, particularly minority shareholders [1] - The independent directors agreed to submit the related party transactions to the board for approval, with related directors required to abstain from voting [1] - The independent directors also approved a related guarantee for the controlling shareholder, stating that the risk is controllable and does not harm the interests of the company or its shareholders, and agreed to submit this matter to the board for review [2]

Meeting Information - The third extraordinary general meeting of shareholders for 2025 will be held on July 23, 2025, at 14:30 [1][3] - The meeting will take place at the conference room 510 of Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd. located in Jiyuan City, Henan Province [1] - Voting will be conducted through a combination of on-site and online methods using the Shanghai Stock Exchange's online voting system [1][3] Voting Procedures - Shareholders can vote via the Shanghai Stock Exchange's online voting system from 9:15 to 15:00 on the day of the meeting [1][3] - Specific voting times include trading hours: 9:15-9:25, 9:30-11:30, and 13:00-15:00 [1] - Shareholders holding multiple accounts can exercise voting rights across all accounts, but repeated votes will be counted based on the first submission [4][2] Meeting Agenda - The meeting will review non-cumulative voting proposals that have been approved by the company's ninth board of directors [2] - The related party that must abstain from voting is Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Group Co., Ltd. [2] Attendance Requirements - Shareholders registered by the close of trading on the equity registration date of July 17, 2025, are eligible to attend the meeting [4] - Attendance can be in person or by proxy, with specific documentation required for both shareholders and their proxies [4][5] Registration Process - Shareholders must register for the meeting in advance, either in person or via fax, on July 22, 2025 [4][5] - Required documents include personal identification and shareholder account information [4][5]

Core Points - The company is established as a joint-stock company in accordance with the Company Law and other relevant regulations [2][3] - The company aims to promote the development of the lead smelting industry and contribute to social prosperity and stability [5] - The company has a registered capital of RMB 1,090,242,634 [3][4] Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: General Provisions - The company is committed to protecting the legal rights of shareholders, employees, and creditors [1] - The company is a permanent joint-stock company [4] Chapter 2: Business Objectives and Scope - The company's business objectives include ensuring the safety and appreciation of shareholder investments [5] - The company engages in various activities including non-ferrous metal smelting, chemical product sales, and technology services [5] Chapter 3: Party Building Work - The company has established a Communist Party organization to strengthen party leadership and construction [7] - The party organization plays a core leadership role within the company [3] Chapter 4: Shares - The company issues ordinary shares, with all shares having equal rights [11] - The total number of shares issued by the company is 1,090,242,634 [11] Chapter 5: Shareholders and Shareholders' Meeting - Shareholders have rights to dividends, voting, and supervision of company operations [17] - The company must hold annual and temporary shareholders' meetings as required [26][27]