对美出口大幅回落一是前期高额税收的影响延续至5月中旬。二是关税缓和力度不足且从落地到见效尚需时间。另外， 从关税缓和到预定集装箱再到报关出口存在不短的时滞，6 月中国对美的直接出口或有所好转。三是伴随着关税上行， 美国整体的进口需求或有所回落。 风险提示 中美之间关税政策依旧存在较大不确定性，后续中美政策波动或对中国经济造成明显压力 美国国内经济不确定性较强，后续随着美国经济压力上行，中国需求或面临下滑压力 关注随着美国需求回落之后，后续中国转出口贸易往来的韧性 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 5 月出口同比增长 4.8%，环比 0.1%，其中对美出口同比从-21%进一步下滑至-34.5%。虽然关税缓和后"对美抢出口 2.0"并不明显，但出口依然保持韧性。 前期 145%高额税收的影响延续到了 5 月中旬，5 月 12 日美方表示在 14 日前对中国关税从 145%削减至 30%，之后中美 直接贸易往来或有所恢复。 来源：wind，国金证券研究所 尽管中美关税缓和，但税率并不低，抢转口和抢出海依然有利润空间。按照估算，美国对中国商品的平均税率在 42% 左右1，其中约 40%的商 ...

Core Insights - Shandong Province's import and export volume reached 1.42 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, leading among the top five foreign trade provinces in China [2] Trade Performance - Exports totaled 864.12 billion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports amounted to 559.99 billion yuan, increasing by 8.3% [2] - General trade accounted for 65.6% of the total trade volume, with a value of 933.69 billion yuan, growing by 6.9% [2] - Processing trade saw a growth of 8.6%, reaching 203.46 billion yuan, making up 14.3% of the total [2] Market Participants - Private enterprises contributed 1.08 trillion yuan to the import and export volume, growing by 8.5% and accounting for 76.1% of the total [2] - Foreign-invested enterprises experienced a slight decline of 0.2%, totaling 210.09 billion yuan, representing 14.8% [2] - State-owned enterprises saw a significant increase of 14.4%, reaching 129.04 billion yuan, which is 9.1% of the total [2] Trade Partners - Trade with ASEAN countries reached 281.47 billion yuan, growing by 1.8%, while trade with the EU increased by 11.3% to 134.62 billion yuan [3] - Trade with Japan grew by 7.7%, totaling 71.67 billion yuan [3] - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries amounted to 909.15 billion yuan, up by 8.9%, accounting for 63.8% of the total [3] Export Products - Mechanical and electrical products exports reached 415.92 billion yuan, growing by 12% and making up 48.1% of total exports [3] - Notably, game console exports surged by 130.1%, totaling 26.8 billion yuan [3] - Agricultural product exports increased by 5.5%, reaching 67.07 billion yuan [3] Import Products - Crude oil imports increased by 31.3%, totaling 45.299 million tons, valued at 170.77 billion yuan, which is 30.5% of total imports [4] - Metal ore imports grew by 16.3%, reaching 1.05 million tons, valued at 110.76 billion yuan [4] - Imports of integrated circuits surged by 39.1%, totaling 31.99 billion yuan [4]

Group 1 - The core event was the establishment of the China (Guangdong) - ASEAN International Supply Chain Cooperation Alliance, aimed at enhancing cross-border cooperation in industrial and supply chains between Guangdong and ASEAN countries [1] - The event was attended by nearly 200 foreign guests, including government officials from ASEAN countries, consuls, and representatives from international organizations and businesses [1] - The alliance focuses on digitalization, intelligence, and green transformation of industries, promoting open communication and collaboration to build a secure, stable, and efficient cross-border supply chain [1] Group 2 - Guangdong Provincial Council for the Promotion of International Trade aims to leverage resources and channels to enhance cooperation in various fields such as economy, trade, technology, culture, education, and tourism [2] - The event facilitated seven cooperation projects, including investments in Indonesian coal mines and strategic partnerships, with a total value exceeding 3.1 billion USD [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the successful import of Serbian agricultural products into Xiamen, marking a significant milestone since the implementation of the China-Serbia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) [1][3] - The imported agricultural products include honey, juice, and wine, with a total of 75 different types valued at approximately 1.2 million RMB, indicating a substantial breakthrough in variety and quantity [1][3] - The use of group shipping for these products significantly reduces transportation costs, lowering the entry barriers for Serbian small and medium-sized enterprises into the Chinese market [1][3] Group 2 - The China-Serbia FTA, which officially came into effect on July 1, 2024, is the first free trade agreement signed between China and Central and Eastern European countries, aiming to gradually eliminate tariffs on 90% of tariff items, with the final zero-tariff import proportion expected to reach around 95% [3] - The chairman of the importing company, Qina Supply Chain (Xiamen) Co., Ltd., expressed that the improved openness and business environment in Xiamen provide confidence for enterprises to expand new product import channels [3] - To ensure smooth importation, Xiamen Customs assigned personnel to guide enterprises in declaration processes and utilize preferential policies such as bonded warehousing and agreement tax rates, facilitating rapid customs clearance [3]

Core Insights - China's foreign trade data for May shows a total import and export value of $528.98 billion, with a significant trade surplus of $103.22 billion, indicating strong performance despite external pressures [1][3][4]. Trade Performance - In May, exports amounted to $316.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, while imports were $212.88 billion, a decrease of 3.4% [3][4]. - Cumulative trade figures for the first five months show total trade value of $2.49781 trillion, with exports at $1.48485 trillion (up 6%) and imports at $1.01296 trillion (down 4.9%), resulting in a trade surplus of $471.89 billion, a 40.3% increase [3][4]. Trade Relations - Bilateral trade with the United States decreased by 9.1% to $239.7098 billion in the first five months, with exports to the U.S. down 9.7% and imports down 7.4%, reflecting the impact of escalating trade tensions [5]. - Conversely, trade with ASEAN countries increased by 12.2%, with notable export growth to Thailand (20.9%), Vietnam (18.8%), and Indonesia (16.8%) [5][7]. Regional Trade Dynamics - Exports to the European Union rose by 6.4%, with significant increases to Germany (12.3%) and France (5.9%), while imports from these countries declined, contributing to a growing surplus [7]. - Exports to Africa surged by 18.9%, to Latin America by 9.4%, to Canada by 8.7%, and to the UK by 7.4%, indicating a diversification of trade partners [7]. Strategic Implications - The increase in trade surplus is attributed to a shift in global supply chains due to U.S. trade policies, prompting countries to reduce reliance on the U.S. market and seek alternative trading partners [10][11]. - The data suggests that while direct trade with the U.S. is declining, overall trade performance is bolstered by growth in non-U.S. markets, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in China's trade strategy [10][11].

东盟已连续五年稳居广东省第一大贸易伙伴，与广东在跨境电商合作方面，具有产业协同、数字赋能的 显著优势。 围绕产业链供应链等领域，广东正与东盟拓展跨境合作的新空间。 6月10日，2025中国（广东）—东盟贸易促进与供应链合作机制建设对接交流会（下称"交流会"）在广 州举行，旨在进一步促进广东与东盟产业链供应链跨境合作水平，推动双向贸易投资增长。 2024年广东与东盟贸易总额占中国对东盟贸易的五分之一。广东企业在东盟投资设厂、合作园区建设、 绿色能源、数字经济等领域取得了丰硕成果。与此同时，越来越多的东盟企业将广东视为进入中国市场 的首选门户。 东盟秘书长特别助理、东盟贸促会会长波尚琅表示，希望广东与东盟加强政策沟通，打造高效便捷的区 域供应链环境；推动重点产业链协同升级；以及深化平台合作，拓展合作空间。 据柬埔寨商务部副国务秘书斯维娜丽进一步介绍，柬埔寨地理位置优越，邻近中国、越南和泰国，是布 局企业供应链的理想枢纽。目前柬埔寨正在积极参与区域性贸易机制建设，强化其作为全球供应链重要 节点的地位。 "广东企业可以借此机会到柬埔寨建设生产基地，享受通向多个全球市场的免税准入。我们欢迎广东企 业投资农产品加工、电子 ...

Core Viewpoint - Suhao Hongye has made significant progress regarding the land acquisition of its subsidiary, Nantong Hongye Import and Export Co., Ltd, with a total compensation received amounting to 30.648 million yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Company Actions - The company's board of directors approved the land acquisition proposal during the meeting held on June 27, 2024, and subsequently at the first extraordinary general meeting on July 15, 2024 [1]. - Nantong Hongye signed a compensation agreement with the Yongxing Street Office, receiving a total of 25.324 million yuan as part of the land acquisition process [1]. Group 2: Financial Details - As of the date of the announcement, Nantong Hongye has received a total of 30.648 million yuan in compensation, including an additional 5.324 million yuan received recently [2].

香港特区政府发言人表示，2025年第一季不少服务行业的业务收益较去年同期上升。较显著的升幅见于 金融业(银行除外)、保险业、进出口贸易业，以及银行业。 展望未来，经济增长应为服务行业的业务提供支持。内地经济继续增长和香港特区政府各项增强经济动 能的措施应有利服务行业的业务，尽管一些行业或会受外围环境的不确定性及市民和旅客于本地市场的 消费模式转变带来的持续不利因素所影响。 按服务界别分析，2025年第一季与2024年第四季比较，计算机及信息科技服务界别经季节性调整的业务 收益指数上升50.3%，而旅游、会议及展览服务界别经季节性调整的业务收益指数亦上升0.7%。 评论 智通财经APP获悉，香港特区政府统计处今日(6月10日)发表的业务收益指数的临时数字显示，2025年第 一季与2024年第一季比较，不少主要服务行业以价值计算的业务收益均有不同程度的升幅。2025年第一 季与2024年第一季比较，金融业(银行除外)(+32.5%)、保险业(+23.1%)、进出口贸易业(+19.4%)及银行 业(+19.0%)的业务收益指数均录得双位数升幅。另一方面，地产业(-6.7%)及零售业(-6.5%)的业务收益指 数同期 ...

前言 在国际经贸的大棋盘上，特朗普政府的每一步棋都备受瞩目。近期，特朗普政府对美国企业向中国出口 乙烷一事横加干涉，要求企业提供出口许可证，多家企业的申请遭到拒绝。 特朗普政府限制乙烷出口的命令一下达，美国乙烷生产商和出口商们瞬间陷入了困境。多家美国乙烷出 口商收到通知后，不得不紧急向华盛顿申请出口许可证。 这一举措看似是针对中国市场需求的 "精准打击"，实则蕴含着诸多复杂因素，且最终可能反噬美国自 身，就像一记重拳，本想砸向中国，却先砸在了美国的大动脉上。 贸易摩擦背景下的新动作 自中美贸易摩擦爆发以来，双方在关税、市场准入等多个领域展开了多轮博弈。今年 4 月 2 日，特朗普 提出 "对等关税"，美国对华进口商品关税一度飙升 145%，中方迅速回应，实施 "对等关税" 反制。 此后两个月，双方你来我往，贸易关系持续紧张。直到日内瓦贸易对话，才达成了一个为期九十天的 "休战" 共识，为紧张局势按下了暂停键。 然而，这个 "暂停" 仅仅是表面的平静。美国的核心诉求是制造业回流，联合盟友压制中国发展；而中 国则渴望公平竞争，摆脱美国在贸易、科技等方面的重重打压。矛盾的不可调和性使得双方在日内瓦会 议后依然暗自较 ...

❑ 5 月对美出口进一步下行，主因全月平均关税水平较高，后续对美出口有望好转 中美瑞士谈判后互相调降关税，但 5 月中国对美出口同比增速-33.6%，较 4 月同 比增速-20.2%进一步下行，主因上半月关税未豁免拖累较大，下半个月关税调降 后预计后续中国对美出口有望反弹。 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 5 月出口尚有韧性，中国对美出口有望反弹 ──2025 年 5 月进出口数据传递的信号 核心观点 5 月出口表现仍有韧性，关税豁免期内"转口抢出口"是重要拉动。5 月中国对美出口 同比降 33.6%，较 4 月 20.2%进一步下行，主因中美瑞士谈判后 5 月 14 日双方才正 式下调关税，当月平均关税仍维持较高水平，考虑 6 月美国额外对华关税水平约 30%， 未来中国对美出口有望反弹，关注美国自中国集装箱到港数据给出的前瞻指引。 ❑ 5 月出口表现维持强势，关税豁免期内"转口抢出口"是重要拉动 2025 年 5 月人民币计价出口 2.28 万亿元，同比增长 6.3%，前值 9.3%。1-5 月人 民币计价累计出口 10.67 万亿元，同比增长 7.2%，较前值 7.5%下行。1-5 月同期 ...