仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 现货 盘面 最新 品种 项目 铁合金早报 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 01 ...

中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-11 宏观扰动频繁，⿊⾊在成本⽀撑附近震 荡运⾏ 中美谈判消息繁多，⿊⾊系价格在成本⽀撑位附近震荡运⾏。临近淡 季，建材需求弱势不改，⼯业材需求也⾯临⾼位回落压⼒，市场前景 依然偏悲观。⽬前电炉和部分⾼炉已亏损，铁⽔产量拐点显现。海外 矿⼭财年末冲量，虽然是预期内动作但仍对市场情绪产⽣利空作⽤。 不过钢⼚整体盈利率持稳，减产空间暂时有限，负反馈条件尚不成 熟。价格在⽀撑位附近探涨等待利好契机，但⽬前上⽅压制⼒度仍较 强。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 ⿊⾊：宏观扰动频繁，⿊⾊在成本⽀撑附近震荡运⾏ 中美谈判消息繁多，黑色系价格在成本支撑位附近震荡运行。临近淡 季，建材需求弱势不改，工业材需求也面临高位回落压力，市场前景 依然偏悲观。目前电炉和部分高炉已亏损，铁水产量拐点显现。海外 矿山财年末冲量，虽然是预期内动作但仍对市场情绪产生利空作用。 不过钢厂整体盈利率持稳，减产空间暂时有限，负反馈条件尚不成 熟。价格在支撑位附近探涨等待利好契机，但目前上方压制力度仍较 强。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上 ...

研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|专题报告 2025-06-11 硅锰价格承压运行，静待硅锰库存消耗 策略摘要 硅锰产能偏宽松，下游消费无明显增量，且硅锰库存仍在高位运行，抑制硅锰价格的高 度。叠加进入 5 月份锰矿、电价和煤炭等价格下跌，硅锰成本重心下移。1-5 月锰矿供 给虽有一些扰动，但近期锰矿库存有所回升。各产区长时间亏损，关注产区减产情况和 硅锰库存变化情况，同时关注电价变化。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 不同产区硅锰企业亏损，产量逐步降低。各产区都出现了较长时间的亏损，内蒙、宁夏 等成本较低的产区也出现了不同程度的长时间亏损，合金企业通过检修等措施降低产量。 月度产量出现明显下降，5 月份月度产量降低至 74.3 万吨。硅锰周度开工率逐步 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks a significant milestone for China's futures market and the recycling metal industry, enhancing risk management and promoting high-quality development in the aluminum sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Launch Details - The first trading of casting aluminum alloy futures occurred at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with seven contracts listed at a benchmark price of 18,365 yuan/ton [1]. - On the first trading day, a total of 57,300 contracts were traded, amounting to 11.011 billion yuan, with an open interest of 11,500 contracts [1]. - The main contract, AD2511, closed at 19,190 yuan/ton, reflecting a 4.49% increase [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is seen as a key development in integrating finance with the non-ferrous metal industry, enhancing China's international influence in aluminum production [1][2]. - The launch is expected to provide companies with effective risk management tools, addressing previous shortcomings in hedging against price fluctuations in aluminum alloys [2]. - The listing has garnered positive responses from industry players, with several well-known companies actively participating in the trading [2]. Group 3: Role of Intermediaries - Futures companies are positioned to offer comprehensive services, from standardized contracts to customized solutions for risk management in the aluminum industry [3]. - The ability to design personalized products based on standardized contracts will enhance the precision of risk management services for enterprises [3]. - Futures companies can facilitate industry participation in the futures market through simple methods, leveraging their risk management subsidiaries [3].

市场表现：今日(20250610) 市场全线下跌，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较 好，板块指数中上证综指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。 银行、医药、交通运输、有色金属、传媒行业表现较好，国防军工、计算机、 综合金融、电子、通信行业表现较差。离境退税、胶原蛋白、熊去氧胆酸、 单克隆抗体、稀土永磁等概念表现较好，移动转售、边缘计算、宽带提速、 寒武纪、机顶盒等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 62 只股票涨停，有 2 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 2.98%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-1.59%。今日封板率 62%，较前日下降 4%，连板率 29%，较前日下降 4%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250609 两融余额为 18161 亿元，其中融资余额 18039 亿元，融券余额 123 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 9.1%。 折溢价：20250609 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是半导体 ETF 南方，ETF 折价较多的 是沪港深 500ETF 基金。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 14 亿元， 20250609 当日大宗交易成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with a minor increase in prices, but overall supply pressure remains significant, leading to potential downward price movements in the future [1][3][7]. Market Performance - On June 10, the main contract for industrial silicon closed at 7415, up by 60 from the previous day, reflecting a 0.82% increase, although the closing price was still down by 60 compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The total trading volume for the main contract was 440,221 lots, with an open interest of 155,627 lots, and the current total open interest stands at 639,121 lots [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price recovery in the futures market has provided some confidence to the otherwise sluggish spot market, but the overall supply situation remains loose, with factories planning to resume production, which may increase supply pressure [3][7]. - The reduction in electricity prices during the flood season is expected to weaken cost support, potentially leading to further price declines as some factories may lower prices to alleviate pressure [3][7]. Raw Material Trends - The market for raw materials such as polysilicon and organosilicon remains stable, with no significant changes observed [5]. Future Considerations - The stability of industrial silicon prices is fragile, and market participants should closely monitor several factors: 1. The progress and scale of factory resumption [7] 2. The extent of electricity price reductions during the flood season [7] 3. The sustainability of the futures market rebound [7] 4. The resilience of downstream demand in key application areas [7] 5. The actual progress of inventory digestion in both social and factory stocks [7]

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 有色金属衍生品日报 第一部分 市场研判 铜 【市场回顾】 1.期货：今日沪铜 2507 合约收于 78880 元/吨，涨幅 0.27%，沪铜指数增仓 11993 手至 57.77 万手。 2.现货：铜价居高，下游采购受抑，上海现货报升水 85 元/吨，持平上一交易日。广东虽库 存 4 连降，但受制于铜价走高，持货商难大幅挺价，报升水 60 元/吨，上涨 5 元/吨。天津 报贴水 180 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 中国中矿资源集团表示，由于全球冶炼产能迅速扩张导致铜精矿短缺，其位于纳米比亚 的 Tsumeb 工厂已暂停铜冶炼作业。该冶炼厂每年可处理 24 万吨铜精矿。 2. Mysteel 调研国内 61 家精铜杆生产企业，总涉及产能 1584 万吨(含 2025 年新增产能)， 2025 年 5 月国内精铜杆产量为 84.08 万吨，环比减少 4.78%，同比增加 23.43%。据 Mvsteel 调研国内 74 家再生铜杆样本企业，总涉及产能 819 万吨，2025 年 5 月国内再生铜杆样本产 量为 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Nanhua Capital completed its first over-the-counter options transaction for casting aluminum alloy, showcasing its rapid response capability and innovative advantages in industrial financial services [1] - Shuaiyichi New Materials Group Co., Ltd. focuses on the research, production, and sales of green, low-carbon recycled aluminum alloy materials, with a maximum annual production capacity of 1 million tons and over 400,000 tons of recycled aluminum utilized annually [2] - Nanhua Futures (603093) is a leading comprehensive service provider of derivatives in China, committed to helping enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency through the use of on-exchange and off-exchange derivative tools [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - China is a major player in the global aluminum industry, with an estimated casting aluminum alloy (recycled) production capacity of approximately 13 million tons and a production volume of about 6.2 million tons in 2024, accounting for 26.2% of global output [3] - The industry faces structural challenges, including tight upstream scrap aluminum supply increasing costs and intense price competition in downstream products compressing profit margins, alongside demand contraction and high inventory levels [3] - The listing of casting aluminum alloy futures provides industry chain enterprises with more precise risk management tools, aiding in cost reduction and efficiency improvement [3]

库存 成本利润 -10000 10000 30000 50000 70000 90000 110000 130000 150000 01/01 01/24 02/16 03/11 04/03 04/26 05/19 06/11 07/04 07/27 08/19 09/11 10/04 10/27 11/19 12/12 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：中国（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：宁夏（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant development in the industry, providing a tool for companies to hedge costs and manage risks associated with aluminum procurement and production [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The casting aluminum alloy industry chain includes scrap aluminum, casting aluminum alloys, die-cast parts, and end-use applications, with the transportation sector, particularly automotive, being the largest consumer [1]. - The carbon emissions from producing casting aluminum alloys are significantly lower, achieving only 2% of the emissions compared to the electrolytic aluminum production process, while also conserving resources such as 3.4 tons of standard coal and 22 tons of water per ton produced [1]. Group 2: Regional Significance - Chongqing plays a crucial role in the casting aluminum alloy industry due to its concentration of high-end manufacturing, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with local automakers like Changan and Seres having substantial aluminum needs [2]. - The annual aluminum alloy demand in Chongqing has surpassed 340,000 tons, supported by the presence of large-scale casting manufacturers with an annual production capacity exceeding 700,000 tons [2]. - The region's logistics infrastructure, including warehouses like Guoyuan Port, meets the storage capacity requirements for the futures market, facilitating regional delivery and circulation [2]. Group 3: Market Development Initiatives - The Chongqing municipal government has actively supported the development of the futures market, encouraging local companies to engage with futures trading and enhancing their risk management capabilities [3]. - CITIC Futures, a national futures brokerage based in Chongqing, aims to provide comprehensive financial services to local businesses, including customized reports, risk management training, and one-stop delivery services [4]. - The company plans to leverage its expertise to enhance the competitiveness of Chongqing's casting aluminum alloy industry and contribute to the sustainable development of the regional economy [4].