策略点评 证券研究报告 中东局势快速升级，关注原油和贵金属等方向 财信证券宏观策略周报（6.16-6.20） 投资要点 2025 年 06 月 15 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -11% -1% 9% 19% 29% 2024-06 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 上证指数 沪深300 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 上周（6.9-6.13)股指表现为，上证指数下跌 0.25%，收报 3377 点，深证成指 下跌 0.60%，收报 10122.11 点，中小 100 下跌 0.65%，创业板指上涨 0.22%； 行业板块方面，有色金属、石油石化、农林牧渔涨幅居前；沪深两市日均成 交额为 13392.35 亿元，沪深两市成交额较前一周上升 13.09%，其中沪市上升 14.81%，深市上升 11.97%；风格上，中小盘股占有相对优势，其中上证 50 下 跌 0.46%，中证 500 下跌 0.38%；汇率方面，美元兑人民币(CFETS)收盘点位 为 7.1813，跌幅为 0.05%；商品方面，ICE 轻质低硫原油连续上涨 14.20%， COMEX 黄金上涨 3 ...

Core Insights - Global productivity growth has significantly slowed down over the past few decades, with over half of the deceleration in global economic growth since the 2008 financial crisis attributed to this decline in productivity growth [1] - Total factor productivity (TFP) has decreased from an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the early 2000s to 0.6% post-crisis, with developed economies experiencing a drop to 0.4% and emerging markets seeing a more substantial decline from over 2% to 0.6% [1] - The disparity in productivity levels across countries accounts for more than half of the global GDP per capita gap, highlighting the importance of productivity growth in reducing income inequality and achieving sustainable development [1] Scenario Analysis Scenario 1: Productivity Leap - A cycle of widespread technological innovation and rapid development of human capital leads to significant and comprehensive productivity growth, potentially increasing global GDP growth to 4% [2] - Key investments in education and training are emphasized to enhance workforce skills, alongside the accelerated application of emerging technologies like AI and quantum computing [2] Scenario 2: Automation Overload - Technological advancements outpace human capital development, resulting in a "winner-takes-all" scenario where wealth and power become increasingly concentrated [2] - Leading firms leverage automation and AI to boost productivity, but this advantage does not disseminate widely, exacerbating productivity disparities across firms, industries, and regions [2] Scenario 3: Human Advantage - Human capital development surpasses technological progress, leading to a more human-centered economic activity with slow and uneven productivity growth [3] - Focus shifts towards nurturing and attracting talent, with significant reforms in education and training systems to cultivate high-skilled labor that meets future economic demands [3] Scenario 4: Productivity Stagnation - Both technological innovation and human capital development slow down, hindering productivity growth and leading to stagnation in living standards and socio-economic development [3] - The report predicts significant growth in information technology and digital communication sectors, driven by technologies like AI and cloud computing, while also facing risks related to technology dependence [3] Industry-Specific Insights - The education sector plays a crucial role in advancing technology and human capital development, with increased investment expected to drive innovation in educational technology [4] - The financial, professional, and real estate services sectors are highly reliant on skilled labor and advanced technology, with potential productivity increases of up to 30% through AI adoption [3] - Manufacturing productivity growth will vary by industry, with innovation-intensive sectors like aerospace and automotive expected to achieve rapid growth through global talent acquisition and technology integration [3] - The energy and materials sectors are set to benefit from digitalization and automation, although they face challenges such as supply constraints for critical materials and rising energy costs [3]

本周 A 股市场出现回调 受风险偏好回落等因素的影响，本周 A 股市场出现回调。受海外地缘政治局势 恶化等因素的影响，A 股市场本周整体出现回调，主要宽基指数大多下跌。在主 要宽基指数中，本周创业板指涨幅最大，涨幅为 0.2%，而科创 50 跌幅最大， 跌幅为 1.9%。目前万得全 A 估值处于 2010 年以来历史中等位置。分行业来看， 本周申万一级行业涨跌出现分化。有色金属、石油石化、农林牧渔等行业本周表 现相对较好，食品饮料、家用电器、建筑材料等行业的跌幅则较大。 中东局势动荡对资产价格有何影响？ 近期中东局势出现动荡，以色列对伊朗发动打击。当地时间 6 月 13 日凌晨 3 时 20 分许，伊朗首都德黑兰市区传出巨大爆炸声。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡 13 日发 表声明说，以军对伊朗的打击会"持续多日"，以军行动目标是"打击伊朗核设 施、弹道导弹工厂和军事能力"。 近几年，中东地区也曾出现过多次冲突，而大多数冲突持续时间较短。从近几年 的情况来看，中东地区曾多次爆发冲突。对于大多数冲突而言，持续时间并不长， 双方在互相谴责及有限冲突之后往往会不了了之。持续时间较长的仅有 2023 年 巴以冲突事件。 202 ...

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20250609-20250613） 择时信号互有多空 ，后市或继续中性震荡 本周回顾 本周市场涨少跌多，上证指数单周下跌 0.25%，创业板指单周上涨 0.22%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型看多。低波动率模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型看空。特征 成交量模型看多。智能沪深 300 模型看空，智能中证 500 模型看空。 中期：涨跌停模型看多。月历效应模型中性。 长期：长期动量模型所有宽基指数中性。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看多。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看多。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看多。 本周行业指数涨跌互现，涨幅前五的行业为：有色金属、石油石化、医药、农 林牧渔、传媒，跌幅前五的行业为：食品饮料、计算机、建材、电子、房地产。 从资金流向角度来说，非银行金融、石油石化、煤炭、交通运输主力资金净流 入居前，计算机、电子、机械、基础化工、电力设备及新能源主力资金净流出 居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 91.18%，相较于上周增加了 145 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 78.54%，相较于上周增加了 101 个 bps。 本周有色金属 ...

Core Viewpoint - The event on June 14, 2023, marked the "Cultural and Natural Heritage Day" in Shanghai, featuring the launch of the book "Cultural Heritage Perspective of Jiangnan: Shanghai Classical Gardens" and six cultural tourism routes that highlight the cultural heritage of Jiangnan in Shanghai [1][3]. Group 1: Cultural Heritage and Tourism - The book "Cultural Heritage Perspective of Jiangnan: Shanghai Classical Gardens" is the second volume in a series aimed at showcasing the multi-dimensional value of cultural heritage in Shanghai [3]. - Six cultural tourism routes were introduced, combining ancient towns, classical gardens, and culinary experiences to provide visitors with an immersive experience of Jiangnan culture [6]. - The event included free access to 30 cultural heritage sites and museums, along with various activities designed to deepen public engagement with Shanghai's cultural heritage [6]. Group 2: Historical Significance of Classical Gardens - Shanghai's classical gardens, such as Yuyuan, Quxue Garden, and Qiuyuan, are recognized for their artistic and historical value, reflecting the exquisite layout and rich cultural background of Jiangnan gardens from the Ming and Qing dynasties [3][4]. - The gardens are classified as national or municipal cultural heritage sites, emphasizing the importance of preserving their original appearance during restoration [3]. - The historical context of these gardens is linked to the broader narrative of Chinese garden aesthetics, particularly during the peak of garden construction in the Ming dynasty [4]. Group 3: Modern Engagement and Challenges - There is a need to adapt the presentation and utilization of classical gardens to attract younger audiences while maintaining their historical essence [5]. - The challenges of preserving traditional gardening techniques and the loss of skilled artisans are highlighted as significant issues facing the future of these cultural sites [5]. - The integration of modern communication methods and new experiences in classical gardens is essential for their continued relevance in contemporary society [5].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 11 products experiencing price increases, 35 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable in early June 2025 compared to late May 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary plates decreased by 1.0% to 1.7%, with rebar priced at 3111.1 yuan per ton [4]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper saw a price increase of 0.4% to 78731.7 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingots decreased by 0.6% to 20203.3 yuan per ton [4]. - Chemical products experienced varied changes, with sulfuric acid increasing by 2.3% to 635.8 yuan per ton, while methanol decreased by 2.5% to 2137.0 yuan per ton [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell by 1.1% to 4264.2 yuan per ton, while gasoline prices increased by 1.1% to 8372.1 yuan per ton [4]. - Coal prices showed a decline, with anthracite coal dropping by 3.6% to 914.8 yuan per ton and coke decreasing by 5.6% to 1181.4 yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, rice prices increased slightly by 0.2% to 4036.8 yuan per ton, while wheat prices decreased by 0.6% to 2415.3 yuan per ton [5]. - Fertilizer prices also saw a decline, with urea dropping by 1.4% to 1864.3 yuan per ton [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring includes data from over 2000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [7]. - The methodology involves various data collection techniques, including on-site price collection and electronic inquiries [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significance of the forest land property rights certificate as a legal proof for ownership, which is essential for clarifying property rights and protecting the legitimate interests of rights holders [1] - The issuance of the property rights certificate for 965.74 acres of state-owned forest land usage rights marks the comprehensive launch of the collective forest rights system reform pilot in Dongying City, Shandong Province [1] - The local government is actively communicating with provincial and municipal natural resources departments for policy guidance and technical support, while also collaborating with local forestry development service centers to address historical issues and work challenges [1] Group 2 - The reform initiative includes learning from advanced regions in Fujian and Zhejiang, integrating forest rights reform into the long-term management framework of forests and wetlands [2] - A significant highlight of the reform is the reduction of financial burdens on market entities, as the costs for field surveys are fully covered by fiscal funds, relieving farmers and forestry enterprises from any expenses [2] - The new property rights certificates utilize high-resolution satellite remote sensing images for boundary definition, marking a transition from traditional paper-based methods to a digital and information-based management system, enhancing accuracy and efficiency [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Jiaotou Ecological Technology Co., Ltd. is undergoing a pre-restructuring process due to its inability to repay debts and insufficient assets to cover all liabilities, with the Kunming Intermediate People's Court accepting the pre-restructuring application [2][3]. Company Overview - The company was established on August 7, 2001, with a registered capital of 184.13289 million yuan, and is located in the Economic and Technological Development Zone of Kunming, Yunnan Province. Its main business includes landscaping and ecological environmental projects [3][4]. Purpose of Recruitment - The recruitment of restructuring investors aims to introduce industry investors with collaborative capabilities and financially strong investors to resolve the company's operational difficulties and debt risks, while protecting the rights of creditors, investors, and employees [4]. Recruitment Conditions - Interested investors must have a good commercial reputation, no major legal violations in the last three years, and must not be listed as dishonest persons. They should provide proof of funds of no less than 100 million yuan [6][7]. Recruitment Process - Interested investors must submit their application materials by June 20, 2025, and pay a registration deposit of 30 million yuan. The temporary administrator will conduct a preliminary review of the applications [7][9]. Due Diligence - After passing the preliminary review, interested investors can conduct due diligence on the company, which must be completed by June 27, 2025. All costs and risks associated with the due diligence are the responsibility of the investors [10]. Submission of Investment Proposals - Investors who pass the preliminary review must submit a binding investment proposal by July 4, 2025. The proposal should include details such as investment scale, funding sources, and debt repayment plans [11][12]. Selection of Investors - The temporary administrator will select restructuring investors based on qualifications, industry background, financial strength, and the legality and suitability of the submitted investment proposals [11][12]. Agreement Signing - Selected investors will receive a confirmation letter and must sign a restructuring investment agreement within the specified timeframe [12].

市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3402.66 | 0.01% | 0.34 | | | 深证成指 | 10234.33 | -0.11% | -11.69 | | | 沪深 300 | 3892.20 | -0.06% | -2.43 | | | 创业板 | 2067.15 | 0.26% | 5.29 | | | 科创 50 | 977.97 | -0.30% | -2.96 | | | 北证 50 | 1424.38 | -0.25% | -3.53 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 1.40% | 家用电器 | -1.77% | 毛发医疗 | 2.02% | 中韩自贸区 | -1.52% | | 传媒 | 1.3 ...

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 黄聪 美晨科技（维权）（300237.SZ）又添债务逾期。 业绩方面，美晨科技净利润已连续四年亏损，累亏36.83亿元。 值得注意的是，截至2025年一季度末，美晨科技资产合计54.32亿元，负债合计52.55亿元，资产负债率 达96.74%。 为了自救，美晨科技加快剥离园林业务。2024年12月，公司以1元的价格转让赛石园林持有的三家下属 子公司。 2025年4月，美晨科技又拟转让赛石园林100%股权。目前，这一交易尚处于筹划阶段。 下属公司新增1100万债务逾期 6月10日晚间，美晨科技发布公告，公司园林业务板块近年来业绩下滑，工程回款难度较大，部分原定 的工程项目回款资金未能如约到位，造成暂时性流动资金紧张，使得全资子公司赛石园林及其部分下属 子公司出现部分债务未能如期偿还的情形。 公告显示，截至本公告披露日，赛石园林及其下属子公司在银行、融资租赁公司等金融机构的累计新增 逾期债务本金合计1100万元，超过美晨科技2024年经审计净资产的10%。 美晨科技表示，公司在尊重和充分考虑包括公司合法利益在内的各方利益的基础上，已与上述债权人积 极沟通协商，并针对性制定解决方案。后 ...